Thread by @Frank_Stones

🚨No Peak Oil or Gas Anytime Soon? The @IEA just delivered a major wake-up call to policymakers and the market. The key variable? Electricity generation, policy failure, and geopolitics.
Why the transition is slowing down:
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https://twitter.com/Frank_Stones/status/1987858124682789046

For the first time in many years, the @IEA acknowledges that the energy transition is not evolving as expected and that the demand for hydrocarbons, and particularly Oil & Gas, could outpace expectations, determining new strategic concerns for producers and consumers.

The Current Policies Scenario, built on where the world is right now in terms of energy uses and technologic advancement, says that we are far off seeing any Oil and Gas consumption peaks. In the scenario, less policy support and higher assumed grid integration challenge the

transition to renewables and their growth anticipated in the Stated Policies Scenario, far more bearish on Oil and Gas consumption.
Whereas the role of oil in transportation is the real question mark for the market going ahead, and EVs substitution of ICE is key to reduce demand,

in the natural gas market it will be the use in electricity generation the key determinant of the difference between an accelerated transition and a slower one.
Again, it is (geo)politics, and not market or climate, the real variable determining the future of energy systems.

Explore the geopolitics of the energy transition
➡️Gas Governance Amidst Insurgency: The Dual Crisis of Public-Private Partnership in Mozambique
🫴intelligence.eklipx.io/article/3527