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Francesco Sassi Profile picture
Francesco Sassi
@Frank_Stones
Research Fellow - Energy Geopolitics & Markets @ RIE - Bologna🇮🇹 Energy, International Relations, Climate, Geopolitics, Diplomacy. Ph.D. @Unipisa
3 subscribers
Aug 6 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
🚨🇷🇺Russia is very close to launch its massive Arctic LNG 2 project. A shadow fleet's LNG carrier has approached the plant, after months of standby.
The beginning of LNG exports from Arctic LNG 2 would be an important step for the Kremlin in its energy war vs the🇺🇸US & the🇪🇺EU
🧵
Image Satellite images have spotted unprecedented movements in the Russian Arctic that might signal the first LNG shipment from Novatek's Arctic LNG 2 could happen very soon.
A vessel, believed to be an LNG carrier known as the Pioneer, a🇵🇼Palau-flagged ship, has approached the
Jul 26 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
🚨🇫🇷France says it sees the risks of lower electricity exports to its🇪🇺EU neighbours, especially those in the East.
As a pillar for the entire🇪🇺EU energy security, the unreliability of the French electricity exports could have cascading consequences for many other countries
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Image The French grid operator RTE warned that, starting next week, the country's energy system will be considerably under stress. This will likely hamper the export potential of the French electricity grid as the system will need to adapt to new, domestic circumstances.
Jul 18 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
🚨The🇪🇺EU hydrogen targets are unfeasible.
This is what the European Court of Auditors (ECA) said in its report about the status of the EU Hydrogen strategy.
A very sober assessment of a pivotal decarbonisation strategy of the Green Deal, whose future is today at stake
🧵
Image In a complex and detailed 108-page long report, the ECA says that the EU Commission plan to deliver hydrogen to the hard-to-abate industries in the EU and fuel the energy transition is not realistic. Also, ECA says the plan has not respected the most basic industrial assumptions
Jun 25 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
🚨🇮🇱Israel's electricity grid is under threat and could be crippled in a matter of a few hours, according to Israeli officials.
The country could soon go to war against Hezbollah. A plan is ready for military operations in🇱🇧Lebanon, likely triggering a regional escalation.
🧵
Image According to the CEO of Israel’s National Electrical System Management Company Noga, Shaul Goldstein,🇮🇱Israel's energy system is simply unprepared for a war with Hezbollah.
The threats coming from the Northern border with🇱🇧Lebanon to the electricity grid of Israel could
Jun 13 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
🚨🇮🇹Italy's Eni has informed markets that due to an unplanned maintenance at the Mellitah complex in🇱🇾Libya, gas exports through the GreenStream pipeline will be significantly reduced.
Could gas supplies from North Africa become a new source of instability for🇪🇺Europe?
🧵
Image Through a market note, yesterday Eni has informed markets that the gas supplies from Libya to Italy and transiting through the trans-Mediterranean GreenStream pipeline could be significantly reduced for about a week due to an unplanned maintenance at the Mellitah gas complex.
Jun 11 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
📯The governments of🇩🇪Germany🇦🇹Austria &🇮🇹Italy signed a Memorandum of Understanding for the realisation of a hydrogen import corridor.
The route is the Southern pillar of the🇪🇺EU hydrogen strategy, but how H2 will fit in the energy strategy of the next EU Commission?
🧵
Image At the presence of the energy ministers of Germany (Green Vice-Chancellor Robert Habeck), Austria (Green Leonore Gewessler) and Italy (EPP Gilberto Pichetto Fratin) meeting for the last EU Council in late May, the governments of Berlin, Wien and Rome signed off an historical
May 23 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
🚨🇦🇹Austria's main gas company OMV says that a court ruling could bring🇷🇺Russian gas supplies to a halt.
Still today, Austria is still a major🇪🇺EU importer of Russian gas, but a sudden supply stop would immediately affect also🇮🇹Italy, another main buyer of Gazprom's gas.
🧵
Image 🇪🇺EU gas markets are once again rattled by the looming threat of reduced gas supplies from🇷🇺Russia.
This time, it is a court ruling and not the Kremlin to determine a new turn in the market's fundamentals. According to OMV, a foreign court has ruled that an unspecified European
May 8 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
📯🇩🇪Germany's operator Gascade and🇳🇴Norway's gas company Gassco signed a Memorandum of Understanding for the construction of a hydrogen pipeline between the two countries.
The pipeline is set to export Hydrogen from Norway into Germany, building a new interdependency in Europe
🧵
Image In late April, Gassco and Gascade signed a first MoU for the joint development of a hydrogen transport network between the two energy partners.
This newborn interdependence should allow the heartland of German industry to decarbonise, using green
May 7 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
🚨🇾🇪Yemen's Houthi are threatening to step up the attacks to all ships supplying goods to🇮🇱Israel, despite their nationality.
This is another risk for energy security in the Middle East, where distressing war signals come from Gaza as Israeli troops seized the Rafah crossing
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Image The Houthi are expanding the action range of attacks to naval convoys as IDF troops have taken the Rafah crossing.
This happens while the Netanyhau government is now openly considering fully advancing and meeting Hamas militants in the area, massively overpopulated by Palestinian
Apr 23 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
🚨🇮🇹Italy is still importing a lot of🇷🇺Russian gas.
Despite political announcements made and calls by🇪🇺EU authorities to zero the gas flows from Russia, in March Italy has imported almost three times the gas it was importing a year ago.
This gas transit through🇺🇦Ukraine
🧵
Image At first, I could not believe my eyes. But digging, data is revealing an unpleasant truth. Italy still relies on Russian gas more than what could appear.
In March, Italy imports from Austria ballooned year-on-year and month-on-month.
Apr 22 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
🚨🇪🇨Ecuador is in a deep energy crisis.
The country is suffering from extended blackouts and the government has blocked the economy to avoid a grid collapse.
In a world full of tensions on markets, both climate change & political accountability are behind a new energy crisis.
🧵
Image A few days ago, the Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa declared an energy emergency with unprecedented measures undertaken to de facto paralyse the country's economy.
Last week, schools were suspended and all public and private sectors of the economy were halted to save energy.
Apr 19 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
🚨In the night,🇮🇱Israel has retaliated against🇮🇷Iran for the April 13th massive drone and missile barrage launched against its territory.
There are no reports of major damages. Markets are downplaying the threat of a further escalation.
What can the West do about this?
🧵
Image During the night, several drones have been spotted in the vicinity of Iranian major city of Isfahan, South of Tehran. The city is located in a strategic position of Iranian oil and network, with main pipelines reaching its vicinity.
Available reports of the event are providing
Apr 16 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
🚨Clouds are gathering around the Strait of Hormuz, one of the major global energy chokepoints, as🇮🇱Israel vows to respond to🇮🇷Iran.
From Europe to Asia, gas prices are rising along with the preoccupation for the security of supplies in case the escalation goes out of control.
🧵
Image After a Monday which left many analysts quite disappointed because of a mild market reaction, now we are starting to see some big movements in global energy indexes, especially regarding gas prices.
TTF front-month reached +6.5% this morning and now is still +4%, marking the
Apr 12 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
🚨A new wave of🇷🇺Russian attacks vs🇺🇦Ukrainian gas storages and power plants send prices to skyrocket in🇪🇺EU and knocks down Kyiv's energy supply. Energy and war are deeply interconnected.
While some say the energy crisis has already ended, the reality says something else.
🧵
Image Last weeks have been dramatic for Ukraine's energy system.
Russian troops have launched multiple attacks against Ukrainian energy infrastructures from occupied Ukraine, from the Russian territory and from air. Drones and ballistic missiles have particularly targeted
Apr 4 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
🚨🇪🇬Egypt's energy security is in great danger.
The country is shifting (again) from a gas exporter into an importer.
Many in the🇪🇺EU would like to turn Eastern Mediterranean into an energy hub to source gas and clean energy.
Energy security and geopolitics say the opposite.
🧵
Image Egypt's state-owned EGAS is rushing to secure LNG imports to avoid shortages over the next summer. Cairo is not just looking to buy sporadic cargoes, but is in fact seeking to secure more LNG deliveries throughout the entire spring and summer seasons in order to avoid shortages
Mar 28 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
🚨🇷🇺Russia has attacked🇺🇦Ukraine's largest gas storage facilities in the West of the country.
This is a significant news in terms of the energy war Moscow has launched against Kyiv, but also versus the🇪🇺EU.
Energy geopolitics is key to fully understanding the ongoing war
🧵
Image On Sunday, Russia launched an unprecedented attack against energy facilities in Ukraine.
By far, this was the largest strike conducted in the 2023/2024 winter.
The barrage consisted of more than a hundred missiles, drones and cluster warheads coming from all directions.
Mar 22 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
🚨The🇺🇸US has asked🇺🇦Ukraine to halt attacks on🇷🇺Russian oil refineries because of the risks of disrupting exports and provoking consequences for the global oil market, including rising prices for American consumers.
A rather contradictory development for energy geopolitics
🧵
Image Today, the FT says that Ukrainian's military and secret services have been repeatedly warned by the US about the possible consequences of Ukraine's drone strikes to Russian oil facilities in the Western oblasts of the Federation.
Mar 21 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
📯🇳🇬Nigeria's state-owned NNPC announced that by the end of 2024, the investment for the colossal🇲🇦 Nigeria-Morocco gas pipeline will be finalised.
Africa's gas ambitions and the strategic role of the region grow. The🇪🇺EU and other actors watch, but strategies are confused.
🧵
Image According to NNPC's CEO Mele Kyari, the Nigeria-Morocco gas pipeline (NMGP) could soon be brought to light as partners could take a final investment decision for the 7,000 km project by the end of the year.
The specifics and cost of the NMGP are simply staggering.
Mar 12 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
🚨The ambitious🇶🇦Qatar's LNG strategy is forcing🇮🇷Iran to accelerate the development of the South Pars/North Dome field.
Teheran wants to reap the benefits of the strategic importance of gas exports, but it must hurry and face the competition of Doha, who exploits the same gas
🧵
Image 🇮🇷Iran's state-owned National Iran Oil Co. has just announced a massive four-year development project aimed at increasing the gas production from the South Pars/North Dome field by over 2500 bcm of gas and 2 billion barrels of condensates in the next future.
Mar 7 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
🚨The transit of🇷🇺Russian gas through🇺🇦Ukraine and the continued purchases by several🇪🇺EU countries is becoming a key political issue.
The transit agreement is set to expire by the end of 2024. Energy security topples any other concerns and politics will soon need to face it.
🧵
Image By the end of 2024, the world's largest gas transit agreement between Russia and Ukraine will expire.
An internal document shows that the EU has invited countries to be prepared for a "worst case" scenario that could set the stage for a possible gas crisis in Central and SE EU
Feb 29 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
🚨🇮🇳India's reliance on coal to power its growing economy is simply appaling.
The government has massively invested in mining, prioritising coal in power generation while securing electricity supply during peak consumption periods.
Environmental protection is not a priority.
🧵
Image Since the beginning of the global energy crisis, India has doubled the efforts to make coal as the backbone of its energy system.
Grappling with widespread energy shortages that negatively affected its economy over the course of the last years, New Delhi has changed its strategy.