Francesco Sassi Profile picture
Assistant Professor @ University of Oslo🇳🇴 Energy, International Relations, Climate, Geopolitics My blog https://t.co/ssyxuoZHm3
Apr 4 9 tweets 2 min read
Germany Seeks to Rewrite Nuclear History as the Gulf War Bites

The ongoing energy crisis is dismantling the few, weak certainties Europe held regarding energy security, forcing the continent’s largest economies to reconsider policies once deemed irreversible.
🧵 Image As the war in the Persian Gulf between U.S.-Israeli forces and Iran intensifies, the German government—led by the center-right CDU/CSU—is no longer concealing its desire to return to nuclear energy. Over the last few weeks, Energy Minister Katherina Reiche has intervened twice:
Mar 30 8 tweets 2 min read
The Invisible Blockade: How Tehran Won Control of the Strait of Hormuz (Almost) Without Firing a Shot

One hard truth for U.S. unipolarity and its allies in Europe and Asia to digest is that the Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been incredibly successful.
🧵 Image Using a limited number of assets in the first days of the war, the Iranians have been able to coerce and deter global energy stakeholders from transiting the Strait unless they seek an accommodation with the regime in Tehran. According to data released by Bloomberg, only 20% of
Mar 29 7 tweets 2 min read
Baltic Blockade: Ukraine Targets Russia’s Oil Hubs as Global Energy Markets Hit Breaking Point

Ukraine is launching severe attacks on Russian oil facilities in the Baltic Sea, with fresh strikes targeting the Primorsk and Usl-Luga terminals.
🧵 Image These are part of a bid to prevent Moscow from profiting from the ongoing war against Iran and price spikes on global oil markets.
Kyiv’s attacks on these two major Russian oil terminals are intensifying just as the Kremlin seeks to capitalize on the implications of the Hormuz
Mar 27 10 tweets 2 min read
The "Perfect Storm": Cyclone Narelle Paralyzes Australian LNG as Global Supply Chain Snaps

New threats to the global gas market have emerged from Australia, where three large-scale LNG plants were forced to cut output after Tropical Cyclone Narelle struck their operations.
🧵 Image Amid the ongoing war in the Persian Gulf between the U.S.-Israel alliance and Iran—the most severe threat to global energy security in decades—it is now the sheer force of nature alarming global markets and placing unprecedented pressure on prices.
In the last few hours, three
Mar 22 9 tweets 2 min read
The "48-Hour Ultimatum": Trump Threatens Total Blackout of Iran to Force Reopening of Hormuz

U.S. President Donald Trump is threatening to strike Iranian power plants if Tehran fails to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within the next 48 hours.
🧵 Image As we enter the fourth week of the U.S.-Israel war against Iran, we are experiencing an acceleration of events that could be described as turning points in this energy war, leading toward a significant escalation in both rhetoric and action.
Using his official account on
Mar 17 7 tweets 2 min read
The Fertilizer Famine: How the Hormuz Blockade is Pricing Food Out of Reach

One of the most severe consequences of the Hormuz blockade is the looming threat to global food production
🧵 Image As urea is produced primarily from natural gas, the seaborne fertilizer market has been thrown into chaos by the war.
In a few months, we may shift from discussing an energy crisis to confronting a global food crisis.
Around a third of global seaborne fertilisers pass through the
Mar 15 7 tweets 2 min read
The Qatari Shock: Italy Accelerates Nuclear Renaissance Plans Amidst LNG Collapse

The unfolding energy crisis in the Middle East, coupled with Italy's heavy dependency on Qatari LNG, is pushing Rome to reconsider nuclear energy.
🧵 Image The Meloni government is accelerating dialogue with international partners in a bid to develop new power plants as soon as possible. According to the Italian Minister for Environment and Energy Security, Gilberto Pichetto Fratin, Italy should restart a programme to construct new
Mar 14 6 tweets 2 min read
The U.S. military has struck Kharg Island, Iran’s largest oil terminal and one of the most significant facilities of its kind.

President Donald Trump has promised further actions against the island’s oil infrastructure should Tehran fail to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
🧵 Image There appears to be no end to the escalation of the energy war unfolding in the Middle East. Speaking to the press late Friday, the U.S. President stated that the military targeted all military installations on Kharg Island, claiming to have “totally obliterated every MILITARY
Mar 11 7 tweets 2 min read
Shell is the first international major to declare force majeure to clients who source LNG from Qatar.

The highly-anticipated next wave of LNG, which was expected to stabilise global markets and provide energy security, is crumbling as a consequence of the U.S.-Israel-Iran War
🧵 Image The British major Shell has communicated to clients who entered into contract with the company that the same will be unable to deliver Qatari LNG to clients.

The British energy major Shell has communicated to clients under contract that it will be unable to deliver Qatari LNG
Mar 5 9 tweets 2 min read
Putin’s Energy Masterclass: Exploiting the Hormuz Crisis to Break the EU’s Resolve

Vladimir Putin is threatening to cut remaining gas supplies to Europe at the exact moment when EU inventories are the most fragile in years.
An honest masterclass in energy geopolitics.
🧵 Image Yesterday, speaking to Kremlin-aligned media, the Russian President alluded to the possibility of halting gas exports to the EU abruptly: "If they're going to shut us down in a month or two anyway, wouldn't it be better to stop now and go to countries that are reliable partners?
Mar 5 11 tweets 2 min read
This is, literally, the most important countdown in the world.
Oil exporters in the Persian Gulf, currently unable to export their hydrocarbon bounty, are all facing a dire short-term outlook.

🧵 Image Unable to store additional oil in strategic reserves and state-owned or privately-owned facilities, they will soon be forced to halt production at some of the largest oil fields on earth.

This will have disruptive consequences for following these countries:
Mar 3 9 tweets 2 min read
The Perfect Storm: EU Storage Hits 30% Threshold as Qatari Supply Vanishes

Let’s talk about the dramatic situation of EU gas storage, which dropped below 30% the same day Iran struck Ras Laffan and Mesaieed, halting all Qatari LNG production.

🧵 Image Do coincidences happen in energy geopolitics? I honestly don’t think so. Yesterday, Iranian drones targeted and hit two of the largest facilities for LNG production in the world, paralysing Qatar’s LNG operations and causing exports to cease completely.
Feb 21 10 tweets 2 min read
🇺🇸American Businessmen Consider Welcoming🇷🇺Russia’s Novatek to Alaska Gas Reserves

The world is changing much faster than treaties and diplomacy generally seem to admit, and energy is a key variable to follow this trend.

🧵 Image In a recent article from the New York Times—certainly not a Kremlin mouthpiece—reports that Gentry Beach, an American hedge fund and private equity investor with personal connections extending to Donald Trump Jr. (the President’s eldest son), has signed an agreement with
Nov 12, 2025 6 tweets 2 min read
🚨No Peak Oil or Gas Anytime Soon? The @IEA just delivered a major wake-up call to policymakers and the market. The key variable? Electricity generation, policy failure, and geopolitics.
Why the transition is slowing down:
🧵 Image For the first time in many years, the @IEA acknowledges that the energy transition is not evolving as expected and that the demand for hydrocarbons, and particularly Oil & Gas, could outpace expectations, determining new strategic concerns for producers and consumers.
Oct 6, 2025 6 tweets 2 min read
🤝The energy interdependence between🌍Africa and🇨🇳China is one of the single most important and undervalued variable when considering the future of the energy transition
🧵 Image From
🇿🇦South Africa
to
🇳🇬Nigeria
and
🇩🇿Algeria
African imports of Chinese solar panels have been on the rise this year and it represents a continental phenomenon, not just a single country trend. It signals an expanding interdependence based on domestic incentives to diversify
Jul 13, 2025 6 tweets 2 min read
🚨🇳🇱The Netherlands is #rationing electricity to avoid stress on the grid and a possible #blackouts
Thousands of businesses and public services are waiting years in line to be connected to the country's grids as it could not afford more interconnections at this point in time
🧵 Image The electricity grid of The Netherlands is in big trouble. This is not the story you would expect from one of the countries in the EU which abandoned gas production from the largest field in 2023 to electrify energy consumption and switch to decarbonising many industries.
Jun 22, 2025 4 tweets 2 min read
🚨🇮🇷Iran's Parliament endorsed closing the Strait of #Hormuz, a vital transit point for global #Oil and #Gas trade off its coast. Yet, the final decision on how to proceed with a closure rests on the supreme leader Ali Hosseini Khamenei and security authorities. Image Any attempt to close Hormuz to ship transit would be a massive retaliation against the🇺🇲United States, which this night attacked Iran's nuclear facilities through cluster bombs and submarines deployed in the Middle East, del facto entering the war along with🇮🇱Israel, but also
Jun 16, 2025 6 tweets 2 min read
🚨💥Visual reports confirm🇮🇷#Iran missiles hit the #Haifa power plant in Northern🇮🇱#Israel and create some damages to it, even though there is no official confirmation from the government or the company.
The power plant is a strategic asset for the country's energy security
🧵 Image Israel's Iron Dome is not flawless, this is what the IDF and government always said about the defence system developed in a decade and protecting Israel from aerial attacks. Iron Dome has been fundamental over the last nights as Iran attempted to penetrate it by launching waves
Apr 29, 2025 9 tweets 3 min read
⚡️The most dangerous blackout in history, collapsing the grids of🇪🇸Spain &🇵🇹Portugal, was caused by the disconnection between🇪🇸Spain &🇫🇷France, thus between the🇪🇸🇵🇹Iberian Peninsula & the🇪🇺EU

🚨Interdependency is the most important variable in today's energy geopolitics
🧵 Image According to REE, the operator of the Spanish grid, the giant blackout of yesterday, one of the most spectacular failures of the European energy systems in the age of electrification, was caused by the sudden disconnection between the Spanish and French electricity grids.
Apr 9, 2025 11 tweets 3 min read
📯🇩🇪Germany discovered huge lithium deposits in the North, enough to supply the country for many decades to come

⛏️Though, mining lithium in these areas comes with water resources issues and contamination problems. This also involves the use of geothermal energy
🧵 Image The North German Plains, a huge landmass stretching from Germany's cities of Lipsia and Dortmund to the port cities of Hamburg and Rostock could contain massive amounts of lithium, an essential critical raw material required for the energy transition.
According to a study
Feb 24, 2025 5 tweets 2 min read
🚨The🇷🇺Russian President Putin says🇺🇦Ukraine's attack over the CPC pipeline has been backed by Western allies.

🛢️CPC is a joint🇷🇺🇺🇸🇪🇺🇰🇿international project which ships mainly light-sweet Kazakh oil to markets

🤔Could this envisage more sabotages to energy infrastructures?
🧵 Image President Putin said that "Attacks of this kind are impossible without space reconnaissance. Ukraine receives high-precision data on the targets only from its Western allies."
The Ukrainian attack was highly precise, damaging the most important pumping station of