Francesco Sassi Profile picture
Postdoctoral Fellow @ University of Oslo🇳🇴 Energy, International Relations, Climate, Geopolitics, Diplomacy Non-resident Research Fellow @ RIE - Bologna🇮🇹
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Mar 5 9 tweets 2 min read
Putin’s Energy Masterclass: Exploiting the Hormuz Crisis to Break the EU’s Resolve

Vladimir Putin is threatening to cut remaining gas supplies to Europe at the exact moment when EU inventories are the most fragile in years.
An honest masterclass in energy geopolitics.
🧵 Image Yesterday, speaking to Kremlin-aligned media, the Russian President alluded to the possibility of halting gas exports to the EU abruptly: "If they're going to shut us down in a month or two anyway, wouldn't it be better to stop now and go to countries that are reliable partners?
Mar 5 11 tweets 2 min read
This is, literally, the most important countdown in the world.
Oil exporters in the Persian Gulf, currently unable to export their hydrocarbon bounty, are all facing a dire short-term outlook.

🧵 Image Unable to store additional oil in strategic reserves and state-owned or privately-owned facilities, they will soon be forced to halt production at some of the largest oil fields on earth.

This will have disruptive consequences for following these countries:
Mar 3 9 tweets 2 min read
The Perfect Storm: EU Storage Hits 30% Threshold as Qatari Supply Vanishes

Let’s talk about the dramatic situation of EU gas storage, which dropped below 30% the same day Iran struck Ras Laffan and Mesaieed, halting all Qatari LNG production.

🧵 Image Do coincidences happen in energy geopolitics? I honestly don’t think so. Yesterday, Iranian drones targeted and hit two of the largest facilities for LNG production in the world, paralysing Qatar’s LNG operations and causing exports to cease completely.
Feb 21 10 tweets 2 min read
🇺🇸American Businessmen Consider Welcoming🇷🇺Russia’s Novatek to Alaska Gas Reserves

The world is changing much faster than treaties and diplomacy generally seem to admit, and energy is a key variable to follow this trend.

🧵 Image In a recent article from the New York Times—certainly not a Kremlin mouthpiece—reports that Gentry Beach, an American hedge fund and private equity investor with personal connections extending to Donald Trump Jr. (the President’s eldest son), has signed an agreement with
Nov 12, 2025 6 tweets 2 min read
🚨No Peak Oil or Gas Anytime Soon? The @IEA just delivered a major wake-up call to policymakers and the market. The key variable? Electricity generation, policy failure, and geopolitics.
Why the transition is slowing down:
🧵 Image For the first time in many years, the @IEA acknowledges that the energy transition is not evolving as expected and that the demand for hydrocarbons, and particularly Oil & Gas, could outpace expectations, determining new strategic concerns for producers and consumers.
Oct 6, 2025 6 tweets 2 min read
🤝The energy interdependence between🌍Africa and🇨🇳China is one of the single most important and undervalued variable when considering the future of the energy transition
🧵 Image From
🇿🇦South Africa
to
🇳🇬Nigeria
and
🇩🇿Algeria
African imports of Chinese solar panels have been on the rise this year and it represents a continental phenomenon, not just a single country trend. It signals an expanding interdependence based on domestic incentives to diversify
Jul 13, 2025 6 tweets 2 min read
🚨🇳🇱The Netherlands is #rationing electricity to avoid stress on the grid and a possible #blackouts
Thousands of businesses and public services are waiting years in line to be connected to the country's grids as it could not afford more interconnections at this point in time
🧵 Image The electricity grid of The Netherlands is in big trouble. This is not the story you would expect from one of the countries in the EU which abandoned gas production from the largest field in 2023 to electrify energy consumption and switch to decarbonising many industries.
Jun 22, 2025 4 tweets 2 min read
🚨🇮🇷Iran's Parliament endorsed closing the Strait of #Hormuz, a vital transit point for global #Oil and #Gas trade off its coast. Yet, the final decision on how to proceed with a closure rests on the supreme leader Ali Hosseini Khamenei and security authorities. Image Any attempt to close Hormuz to ship transit would be a massive retaliation against the🇺🇲United States, which this night attacked Iran's nuclear facilities through cluster bombs and submarines deployed in the Middle East, del facto entering the war along with🇮🇱Israel, but also
Jun 16, 2025 6 tweets 2 min read
🚨💥Visual reports confirm🇮🇷#Iran missiles hit the #Haifa power plant in Northern🇮🇱#Israel and create some damages to it, even though there is no official confirmation from the government or the company.
The power plant is a strategic asset for the country's energy security
🧵 Image Israel's Iron Dome is not flawless, this is what the IDF and government always said about the defence system developed in a decade and protecting Israel from aerial attacks. Iron Dome has been fundamental over the last nights as Iran attempted to penetrate it by launching waves
Apr 29, 2025 9 tweets 3 min read
⚡️The most dangerous blackout in history, collapsing the grids of🇪🇸Spain &🇵🇹Portugal, was caused by the disconnection between🇪🇸Spain &🇫🇷France, thus between the🇪🇸🇵🇹Iberian Peninsula & the🇪🇺EU

🚨Interdependency is the most important variable in today's energy geopolitics
🧵 Image According to REE, the operator of the Spanish grid, the giant blackout of yesterday, one of the most spectacular failures of the European energy systems in the age of electrification, was caused by the sudden disconnection between the Spanish and French electricity grids.
Apr 9, 2025 11 tweets 3 min read
📯🇩🇪Germany discovered huge lithium deposits in the North, enough to supply the country for many decades to come

⛏️Though, mining lithium in these areas comes with water resources issues and contamination problems. This also involves the use of geothermal energy
🧵 Image The North German Plains, a huge landmass stretching from Germany's cities of Lipsia and Dortmund to the port cities of Hamburg and Rostock could contain massive amounts of lithium, an essential critical raw material required for the energy transition.
According to a study
Feb 24, 2025 5 tweets 2 min read
🚨The🇷🇺Russian President Putin says🇺🇦Ukraine's attack over the CPC pipeline has been backed by Western allies.

🛢️CPC is a joint🇷🇺🇺🇸🇪🇺🇰🇿international project which ships mainly light-sweet Kazakh oil to markets

🤔Could this envisage more sabotages to energy infrastructures?
🧵 Image President Putin said that "Attacks of this kind are impossible without space reconnaissance. Ukraine receives high-precision data on the targets only from its Western allies."
The Ukrainian attack was highly precise, damaging the most important pumping station of
Feb 12, 2025 6 tweets 2 min read
📯🇹🇷Turkey starts to import gas from🇹🇲Turkmenistan, a crucial step in the creation of a Turkish gas hub.

🔄Gas will pass through🇮🇷Iran, another exporter.

🚨The agreement, of which we still know not much about, threatens the interests of🇦🇿Azerbaijan and🇷🇺Russia.
🧵 Image At the beginning of March, Turkey will start importing unknown volumes of gas from Turkmenistan. The trade will be possible thanks to a swap agreement with Iran.
Gas will flow from Turkmenistan to the Northeast of Iran. Then, Iran will export the same amount to Turkey from the NW
Feb 7, 2025 5 tweets 2 min read
🚨How do I know the🇪🇺EU is in big trouble regarding natural gas storages?

👮agsi.gie.eu the🇪🇺EU association of gas infrastructure operator, just changed the colour coding of gas storage %

🥵It did so to avoid presenting the failure of🇪🇺EU gas security policies
🧵 x.com/Frank_Stones/s…Image Over the last 24-48 hours, the GIE-AGSI website decided to reconsider the colouring of percentage ranges of EU gas storage available today.
It has done so by expanding the shades of green used between 100% and 41% filling level compared to the previous 100%-71% range.
Jan 22, 2025 9 tweets 2 min read
🚨🇪🇺EU gas storage levels are officially below the 60% threshold and continue to deplete at a fast rate.

🥶Temperatures are milder. Yet, low levels of wind energy production are forcing countries to use more gas.

📈Prices are at a record high since October 2023
🧵 Image Gas storage levels in the🇪🇺EU are back at the center of the political debate and the attention of energy analysts.
Paradoxical as it seems, based on the point of view of the observers, they are good and bad at the same time. On this, nobody is wrong or right.
Let's take a look...
Jan 21, 2025 8 tweets 2 min read
🇺🇸US 47th (& 45th) President Donald J. Trump was sworn in less than 24 hours ago.

✍️Here is a quick take of the first seven decisions that represent magmatic shifts in the country's energy and climate policies and strategies to which all stakeholders must adapt.
🧵 Image 🚨1 - National energy emergency
In a sudden and counterintuitive move, Trump declared a national energy emergency. This grants him the ability and power to limit most environmental restrictions on energy infrastructures.
Now, the largest hydrocarbon producer on Earth is in crisis
Aug 6, 2024 10 tweets 3 min read
🚨🇷🇺Russia is very close to launch its massive Arctic LNG 2 project. A shadow fleet's LNG carrier has approached the plant, after months of standby.
The beginning of LNG exports from Arctic LNG 2 would be an important step for the Kremlin in its energy war vs the🇺🇸US & the🇪🇺EU
🧵
Image Satellite images have spotted unprecedented movements in the Russian Arctic that might signal the first LNG shipment from Novatek's Arctic LNG 2 could happen very soon.
A vessel, believed to be an LNG carrier known as the Pioneer, a🇵🇼Palau-flagged ship, has approached the
Jul 26, 2024 10 tweets 2 min read
🚨🇫🇷France says it sees the risks of lower electricity exports to its🇪🇺EU neighbours, especially those in the East.
As a pillar for the entire🇪🇺EU energy security, the unreliability of the French electricity exports could have cascading consequences for many other countries
🧵
Image The French grid operator RTE warned that, starting next week, the country's energy system will be considerably under stress. This will likely hamper the export potential of the French electricity grid as the system will need to adapt to new, domestic circumstances.
Jul 18, 2024 10 tweets 3 min read
🚨The🇪🇺EU hydrogen targets are unfeasible.
This is what the European Court of Auditors (ECA) said in its report about the status of the EU Hydrogen strategy.
A very sober assessment of a pivotal decarbonisation strategy of the Green Deal, whose future is today at stake
🧵
Image In a complex and detailed 108-page long report, the ECA says that the EU Commission plan to deliver hydrogen to the hard-to-abate industries in the EU and fuel the energy transition is not realistic. Also, ECA says the plan has not respected the most basic industrial assumptions
Jun 25, 2024 10 tweets 3 min read
🚨🇮🇱Israel's electricity grid is under threat and could be crippled in a matter of a few hours, according to Israeli officials.
The country could soon go to war against Hezbollah. A plan is ready for military operations in🇱🇧Lebanon, likely triggering a regional escalation.
🧵
Image According to the CEO of Israel’s National Electrical System Management Company Noga, Shaul Goldstein,🇮🇱Israel's energy system is simply unprepared for a war with Hezbollah.
The threats coming from the Northern border with🇱🇧Lebanon to the electricity grid of Israel could
Jun 13, 2024 10 tweets 2 min read
🚨🇮🇹Italy's Eni has informed markets that due to an unplanned maintenance at the Mellitah complex in🇱🇾Libya, gas exports through the GreenStream pipeline will be significantly reduced.
Could gas supplies from North Africa become a new source of instability for🇪🇺Europe?
🧵
Image Through a market note, yesterday Eni has informed markets that the gas supplies from Libya to Italy and transiting through the trans-Mediterranean GreenStream pipeline could be significantly reduced for about a week due to an unplanned maintenance at the Mellitah gas complex.