🚨 The "Mini-War" in the Gulf isn't over—it’s just hitting a dangerous new phase.
While markets celebrate a "pause," the UAE’s multi-year strategy to bypass the Strait of Hormuz is under direct fire.
A thread on why "Project Freedom" is failing.
🧵 #EnergyGeopolitics #OPEC #Oil Trump says it’s a “little detour.” Marco Rubio says the war is over. The reality? Thousands of ships are still trapped, and Iran just proved that the UAE’s "fail-safe" Fujairah terminal is well within reach of their drones.

The map of the collapsing ceasefire in the Strait of Hormuz signals an energy crisis at every turn.

We are nearly 24 hours past the most dramatic moments since the inception of the “ceasefire” between the U.S. and Iran.
🧵 A U.S. Navy convoy reportedly traversed the "red line" imposed by Iran around the Strait of Hormuz to enable two American-flagged vessels—one of them a Maersk vehicle carrier—to navigate through the Strait.

The vessels, along with the military escort supporting them, came under

Russia is set to halt Kazakh oil supplies to Germany, cutting off one critical lifeline for the EU as it seeks alternatives to the volatile Persian Gulf.

Moscow is intensifying its "Grand Oil Game," exploiting glaring EU vulnerabilities in the face of the ongoing Iran crisis.
🧵 According to several industrial sources, the Russian state-owned transport giant Transneft has issued formal notices to both Kazakhstan and Germany regarding "adjustments" to the oil supply schedule.
Following the EU’s ban on Russian crude, Germany significantly increased imports

Kuwait has just declared force majeure on oil exports from the Strait of Hormuz

No more oil or refined products will come from Kuwait, at least for the foreseeable future.
🧵 To confront the disruption created by Iran, which blocked the Strait of Hormuz, the Gulf nation has notified clients around the world that it won’t be able to supply oil.
The state-run Kuwait Petroleum Corp (KPC) has notified customers on Friday invoking a clause included in most

Claudio Descalzi, the head of Italy’s state-backed energy giant Eni, has just made a startling public declaration: Europe must suspend the ban on Russian gas in the face of the looming energy crisis.
Descalzi is the first head of a European Oil & Gas Major to take this stance
🧵 Amid the current energy crisis, he won't likely be the last.

The energy crisis triggered in the Persian Gulf by the U.S.-Israel conflict against Iran is arriving on EU shores, despite policymakers' attempts to mask the reality and avoid accountability.
Last weekend, Descalzi

The TAL oil pipeline, connecting Italy, Austria, and Germany, has been sabotaged.

As the world’s attention remains fixed on the Strait of Hormuz and on the high-stakes negotiations beginning in Islamabad, a critical energy artery in Europe has been disabled.
🧵 The Transalpine Pipeline (TAL), which links the Port of Trieste to major refineries in Southern Germany, has been targeted. The most vital of these is the MiRO refinery near Karlsruhe, which alone provides approximately 45% of the primary energy consumption for the state of

Germany Seeks to Rewrite Nuclear History as the Gulf War Bites

The ongoing energy crisis is dismantling the few, weak certainties Europe held regarding energy security, forcing the continent’s largest economies to reconsider policies once deemed irreversible.
🧵 As the war in the Persian Gulf between U.S.-Israeli forces and Iran intensifies, the German government—led by the center-right CDU/CSU—is no longer concealing its desire to return to nuclear energy. Over the last few weeks, Energy Minister Katherina Reiche has intervened twice:

The Great Bypass: Gulf Exporters Pivot to the Red Sea as Hormuz Leverage Peaks

Infrastructure investments to circumvent the Iranian control on the Strait of Hormuz is the new mantra for Gulf Oil&Gas exporters.
🧵 From Iraq to Saudi Arabia, countries are considering alternative routes to export hydrocarbons to global markets—exploiting geographical opportunities and a network of infrastructure connecting the Gulf to the Red Sea and the Mediterranean. This includes the IMEC corridor,

The Invisible Blockade: How Tehran Won Control of the Strait of Hormuz (Almost) Without Firing a Shot

One hard truth for U.S. unipolarity and its allies in Europe and Asia to digest is that the Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been incredibly successful.
🧵 Using a limited number of assets in the first days of the war, the Iranians have been able to coerce and deter global energy stakeholders from transiting the Strait unless they seek an accommodation with the regime in Tehran. According to data released by Bloomberg, only 20% of

Baltic Blockade: Ukraine Targets Russia’s Oil Hubs as Global Energy Markets Hit Breaking Point

Ukraine is launching severe attacks on Russian oil facilities in the Baltic Sea, with fresh strikes targeting the Primorsk and Usl-Luga terminals.
🧵 These are part of a bid to prevent Moscow from profiting from the ongoing war against Iran and price spikes on global oil markets.
Kyiv’s attacks on these two major Russian oil terminals are intensifying just as the Kremlin seeks to capitalize on the implications of the Hormuz

The "Perfect Storm": Cyclone Narelle Paralyzes Australian LNG as Global Supply Chain Snaps

New threats to the global gas market have emerged from Australia, where three large-scale LNG plants were forced to cut output after Tropical Cyclone Narelle struck their operations.
🧵 Amid the ongoing war in the Persian Gulf between the U.S.-Israel alliance and Iran—the most severe threat to global energy security in decades—it is now the sheer force of nature alarming global markets and placing unprecedented pressure on prices.
In the last few hours, three

The "48-Hour Ultimatum": Trump Threatens Total Blackout of Iran to Force Reopening of Hormuz

U.S. President Donald Trump is threatening to strike Iranian power plants if Tehran fails to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within the next 48 hours.
🧵 As we enter the fourth week of the U.S.-Israel war against Iran, we are experiencing an acceleration of events that could be described as turning points in this energy war, leading toward a significant escalation in both rhetoric and action.
Using his official account on

The Fertilizer Famine: How the Hormuz Blockade is Pricing Food Out of Reach

One of the most severe consequences of the Hormuz blockade is the looming threat to global food production
🧵 As urea is produced primarily from natural gas, the seaborne fertilizer market has been thrown into chaos by the war.
In a few months, we may shift from discussing an energy crisis to confronting a global food crisis.
Around a third of global seaborne fertilisers pass through the

The Qatari Shock: Italy Accelerates Nuclear Renaissance Plans Amidst LNG Collapse

The unfolding energy crisis in the Middle East, coupled with Italy's heavy dependency on Qatari LNG, is pushing Rome to reconsider nuclear energy.
🧵 The Meloni government is accelerating dialogue with international partners in a bid to develop new power plants as soon as possible. According to the Italian Minister for Environment and Energy Security, Gilberto Pichetto Fratin, Italy should restart a programme to construct new

The U.S. military has struck Kharg Island, Iran’s largest oil terminal and one of the most significant facilities of its kind.

President Donald Trump has promised further actions against the island’s oil infrastructure should Tehran fail to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
🧵 There appears to be no end to the escalation of the energy war unfolding in the Middle East. Speaking to the press late Friday, the U.S. President stated that the military targeted all military installations on Kharg Island, claiming to have “totally obliterated every MILITARY

Shell is the first international major to declare force majeure to clients who source LNG from Qatar.

The highly-anticipated next wave of LNG, which was expected to stabilise global markets and provide energy security, is crumbling as a consequence of the U.S.-Israel-Iran War
🧵 The British major Shell has communicated to clients who entered into contract with the company that the same will be unable to deliver Qatari LNG to clients.

The British energy major Shell has communicated to clients under contract that it will be unable to deliver Qatari LNG

Putin’s Energy Masterclass: Exploiting the Hormuz Crisis to Break the EU’s Resolve

Vladimir Putin is threatening to cut remaining gas supplies to Europe at the exact moment when EU inventories are the most fragile in years.
An honest masterclass in energy geopolitics.
🧵 Yesterday, speaking to Kremlin-aligned media, the Russian President alluded to the possibility of halting gas exports to the EU abruptly: "If they're going to shut us down in a month or two anyway, wouldn't it be better to stop now and go to countries that are reliable partners?

This is, literally, the most important countdown in the world.
Oil exporters in the Persian Gulf, currently unable to export their hydrocarbon bounty, are all facing a dire short-term outlook.

🧵 Unable to store additional oil in strategic reserves and state-owned or privately-owned facilities, they will soon be forced to halt production at some of the largest oil fields on earth.

This will have disruptive consequences for following these countries:

The Perfect Storm: EU Storage Hits 30% Threshold as Qatari Supply Vanishes

Let’s talk about the dramatic situation of EU gas storage, which dropped below 30% the same day Iran struck Ras Laffan and Mesaieed, halting all Qatari LNG production.

🧵 Do coincidences happen in energy geopolitics? I honestly don’t think so. Yesterday, Iranian drones targeted and hit two of the largest facilities for LNG production in the world, paralysing Qatar’s LNG operations and causing exports to cease completely.

🇺🇸American Businessmen Consider Welcoming🇷🇺Russia’s Novatek to Alaska Gas Reserves

The world is changing much faster than treaties and diplomacy generally seem to admit, and energy is a key variable to follow this trend.

🧵 In a recent article from the New York Times—certainly not a Kremlin mouthpiece—reports that Gentry Beach, an American hedge fund and private equity investor with personal connections extending to Donald Trump Jr. (the President’s eldest son), has signed an agreement with

🚨No Peak Oil or Gas Anytime Soon? The @IEA just delivered a major wake-up call to policymakers and the market. The key variable? Electricity generation, policy failure, and geopolitics.
Why the transition is slowing down:
🧵

https://twitter.com/Frank_Stones/status/1987858124682789046

For the first time in many years, the @IEA acknowledges that the energy transition is not evolving as expected and that the demand for hydrocarbons, and particularly Oil & Gas, could outpace expectations, determining new strategic concerns for producers and consumers.