Francesco Sassi Profile picture
Research Fellow - Energy Geopolitics & Markets @ RIE - Bologna🇮🇹 Energy, International Relations, Climate, Geopolitics, Diplomacy. Ph.D. @Unipisa
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Feb 12 6 tweets 2 min read
📯🇹🇷Turkey starts to import gas from🇹🇲Turkmenistan, a crucial step in the creation of a Turkish gas hub.

🔄Gas will pass through🇮🇷Iran, another exporter.

🚨The agreement, of which we still know not much about, threatens the interests of🇦🇿Azerbaijan and🇷🇺Russia.
🧵 Image At the beginning of March, Turkey will start importing unknown volumes of gas from Turkmenistan. The trade will be possible thanks to a swap agreement with Iran.
Gas will flow from Turkmenistan to the Northeast of Iran. Then, Iran will export the same amount to Turkey from the NW
Feb 7 5 tweets 2 min read
🚨How do I know the🇪🇺EU is in big trouble regarding natural gas storages?

👮agsi.gie.eu the🇪🇺EU association of gas infrastructure operator, just changed the colour coding of gas storage %

🥵It did so to avoid presenting the failure of🇪🇺EU gas security policies
🧵 x.com/Frank_Stones/s…Image Over the last 24-48 hours, the GIE-AGSI website decided to reconsider the colouring of percentage ranges of EU gas storage available today.
It has done so by expanding the shades of green used between 100% and 41% filling level compared to the previous 100%-71% range.
Jan 22 9 tweets 2 min read
🚨🇪🇺EU gas storage levels are officially below the 60% threshold and continue to deplete at a fast rate.

🥶Temperatures are milder. Yet, low levels of wind energy production are forcing countries to use more gas.

📈Prices are at a record high since October 2023
🧵 Image Gas storage levels in the🇪🇺EU are back at the center of the political debate and the attention of energy analysts.
Paradoxical as it seems, based on the point of view of the observers, they are good and bad at the same time. On this, nobody is wrong or right.
Let's take a look...
Jan 21 8 tweets 2 min read
🇺🇸US 47th (& 45th) President Donald J. Trump was sworn in less than 24 hours ago.

✍️Here is a quick take of the first seven decisions that represent magmatic shifts in the country's energy and climate policies and strategies to which all stakeholders must adapt.
🧵 Image 🚨1 - National energy emergency
In a sudden and counterintuitive move, Trump declared a national energy emergency. This grants him the ability and power to limit most environmental restrictions on energy infrastructures.
Now, the largest hydrocarbon producer on Earth is in crisis
Aug 6, 2024 10 tweets 3 min read
🚨🇷🇺Russia is very close to launch its massive Arctic LNG 2 project. A shadow fleet's LNG carrier has approached the plant, after months of standby.
The beginning of LNG exports from Arctic LNG 2 would be an important step for the Kremlin in its energy war vs the🇺🇸US & the🇪🇺EU
🧵
Image Satellite images have spotted unprecedented movements in the Russian Arctic that might signal the first LNG shipment from Novatek's Arctic LNG 2 could happen very soon.
A vessel, believed to be an LNG carrier known as the Pioneer, a🇵🇼Palau-flagged ship, has approached the
Jul 26, 2024 10 tweets 2 min read
🚨🇫🇷France says it sees the risks of lower electricity exports to its🇪🇺EU neighbours, especially those in the East.
As a pillar for the entire🇪🇺EU energy security, the unreliability of the French electricity exports could have cascading consequences for many other countries
🧵
Image The French grid operator RTE warned that, starting next week, the country's energy system will be considerably under stress. This will likely hamper the export potential of the French electricity grid as the system will need to adapt to new, domestic circumstances.
Jul 18, 2024 10 tweets 3 min read
🚨The🇪🇺EU hydrogen targets are unfeasible.
This is what the European Court of Auditors (ECA) said in its report about the status of the EU Hydrogen strategy.
A very sober assessment of a pivotal decarbonisation strategy of the Green Deal, whose future is today at stake
🧵
Image In a complex and detailed 108-page long report, the ECA says that the EU Commission plan to deliver hydrogen to the hard-to-abate industries in the EU and fuel the energy transition is not realistic. Also, ECA says the plan has not respected the most basic industrial assumptions
Jun 25, 2024 10 tweets 3 min read
🚨🇮🇱Israel's electricity grid is under threat and could be crippled in a matter of a few hours, according to Israeli officials.
The country could soon go to war against Hezbollah. A plan is ready for military operations in🇱🇧Lebanon, likely triggering a regional escalation.
🧵
Image According to the CEO of Israel’s National Electrical System Management Company Noga, Shaul Goldstein,🇮🇱Israel's energy system is simply unprepared for a war with Hezbollah.
The threats coming from the Northern border with🇱🇧Lebanon to the electricity grid of Israel could
Jun 13, 2024 10 tweets 2 min read
🚨🇮🇹Italy's Eni has informed markets that due to an unplanned maintenance at the Mellitah complex in🇱🇾Libya, gas exports through the GreenStream pipeline will be significantly reduced.
Could gas supplies from North Africa become a new source of instability for🇪🇺Europe?
🧵
Image Through a market note, yesterday Eni has informed markets that the gas supplies from Libya to Italy and transiting through the trans-Mediterranean GreenStream pipeline could be significantly reduced for about a week due to an unplanned maintenance at the Mellitah gas complex.
Jun 11, 2024 10 tweets 2 min read
📯The governments of🇩🇪Germany🇦🇹Austria &🇮🇹Italy signed a Memorandum of Understanding for the realisation of a hydrogen import corridor.
The route is the Southern pillar of the🇪🇺EU hydrogen strategy, but how H2 will fit in the energy strategy of the next EU Commission?
🧵
Image At the presence of the energy ministers of Germany (Green Vice-Chancellor Robert Habeck), Austria (Green Leonore Gewessler) and Italy (EPP Gilberto Pichetto Fratin) meeting for the last EU Council in late May, the governments of Berlin, Wien and Rome signed off an historical
May 23, 2024 10 tweets 3 min read
🚨🇦🇹Austria's main gas company OMV says that a court ruling could bring🇷🇺Russian gas supplies to a halt.
Still today, Austria is still a major🇪🇺EU importer of Russian gas, but a sudden supply stop would immediately affect also🇮🇹Italy, another main buyer of Gazprom's gas.
🧵
Image 🇪🇺EU gas markets are once again rattled by the looming threat of reduced gas supplies from🇷🇺Russia.
This time, it is a court ruling and not the Kremlin to determine a new turn in the market's fundamentals. According to OMV, a foreign court has ruled that an unspecified European
May 8, 2024 10 tweets 2 min read
📯🇩🇪Germany's operator Gascade and🇳🇴Norway's gas company Gassco signed a Memorandum of Understanding for the construction of a hydrogen pipeline between the two countries.
The pipeline is set to export Hydrogen from Norway into Germany, building a new interdependency in Europe
🧵
Image In late April, Gassco and Gascade signed a first MoU for the joint development of a hydrogen transport network between the two energy partners.
This newborn interdependence should allow the heartland of German industry to decarbonise, using green
May 7, 2024 10 tweets 3 min read
🚨🇾🇪Yemen's Houthi are threatening to step up the attacks to all ships supplying goods to🇮🇱Israel, despite their nationality.
This is another risk for energy security in the Middle East, where distressing war signals come from Gaza as Israeli troops seized the Rafah crossing
🧵
Image The Houthi are expanding the action range of attacks to naval convoys as IDF troops have taken the Rafah crossing.
This happens while the Netanyhau government is now openly considering fully advancing and meeting Hamas militants in the area, massively overpopulated by Palestinian
Apr 23, 2024 10 tweets 2 min read
🚨🇮🇹Italy is still importing a lot of🇷🇺Russian gas.
Despite political announcements made and calls by🇪🇺EU authorities to zero the gas flows from Russia, in March Italy has imported almost three times the gas it was importing a year ago.
This gas transit through🇺🇦Ukraine
🧵
Image At first, I could not believe my eyes. But digging, data is revealing an unpleasant truth. Italy still relies on Russian gas more than what could appear.
In March, Italy imports from Austria ballooned year-on-year and month-on-month.
Apr 22, 2024 10 tweets 2 min read
🚨🇪🇨Ecuador is in a deep energy crisis.
The country is suffering from extended blackouts and the government has blocked the economy to avoid a grid collapse.
In a world full of tensions on markets, both climate change & political accountability are behind a new energy crisis.
🧵
Image A few days ago, the Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa declared an energy emergency with unprecedented measures undertaken to de facto paralyse the country's economy.
Last week, schools were suspended and all public and private sectors of the economy were halted to save energy.
Apr 19, 2024 10 tweets 3 min read
🚨In the night,🇮🇱Israel has retaliated against🇮🇷Iran for the April 13th massive drone and missile barrage launched against its territory.
There are no reports of major damages. Markets are downplaying the threat of a further escalation.
What can the West do about this?
🧵
Image During the night, several drones have been spotted in the vicinity of Iranian major city of Isfahan, South of Tehran. The city is located in a strategic position of Iranian oil and network, with main pipelines reaching its vicinity.
Available reports of the event are providing
Apr 16, 2024 10 tweets 3 min read
🚨Clouds are gathering around the Strait of Hormuz, one of the major global energy chokepoints, as🇮🇱Israel vows to respond to🇮🇷Iran.
From Europe to Asia, gas prices are rising along with the preoccupation for the security of supplies in case the escalation goes out of control.
🧵
Image After a Monday which left many analysts quite disappointed because of a mild market reaction, now we are starting to see some big movements in global energy indexes, especially regarding gas prices.
TTF front-month reached +6.5% this morning and now is still +4%, marking the
Apr 12, 2024 10 tweets 2 min read
🚨A new wave of🇷🇺Russian attacks vs🇺🇦Ukrainian gas storages and power plants send prices to skyrocket in🇪🇺EU and knocks down Kyiv's energy supply. Energy and war are deeply interconnected.
While some say the energy crisis has already ended, the reality says something else.
🧵
Image Last weeks have been dramatic for Ukraine's energy system.
Russian troops have launched multiple attacks against Ukrainian energy infrastructures from occupied Ukraine, from the Russian territory and from air. Drones and ballistic missiles have particularly targeted
Apr 4, 2024 10 tweets 3 min read
🚨🇪🇬Egypt's energy security is in great danger.
The country is shifting (again) from a gas exporter into an importer.
Many in the🇪🇺EU would like to turn Eastern Mediterranean into an energy hub to source gas and clean energy.
Energy security and geopolitics say the opposite.
🧵
Image Egypt's state-owned EGAS is rushing to secure LNG imports to avoid shortages over the next summer. Cairo is not just looking to buy sporadic cargoes, but is in fact seeking to secure more LNG deliveries throughout the entire spring and summer seasons in order to avoid shortages
Mar 28, 2024 10 tweets 3 min read
🚨🇷🇺Russia has attacked🇺🇦Ukraine's largest gas storage facilities in the West of the country.
This is a significant news in terms of the energy war Moscow has launched against Kyiv, but also versus the🇪🇺EU.
Energy geopolitics is key to fully understanding the ongoing war
🧵
Image On Sunday, Russia launched an unprecedented attack against energy facilities in Ukraine.
By far, this was the largest strike conducted in the 2023/2024 winter.
The barrage consisted of more than a hundred missiles, drones and cluster warheads coming from all directions.
Mar 22, 2024 13 tweets 3 min read
🚨The🇺🇸US has asked🇺🇦Ukraine to halt attacks on🇷🇺Russian oil refineries because of the risks of disrupting exports and provoking consequences for the global oil market, including rising prices for American consumers.
A rather contradictory development for energy geopolitics
🧵
Image Today, the FT says that Ukrainian's military and secret services have been repeatedly warned by the US about the possible consequences of Ukraine's drone strikes to Russian oil facilities in the Western oblasts of the Federation.