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Francesco Sassi Profile picture
Francesco Sassi
@Frank_Stones
Research Fellow - Energy Geopolitics & Markets @ RIE - Bologna🇮🇹 Energy, International Relations, Climate, Geopolitics, Diplomacy. Ph.D. @Unipisa
Daniel O'Donnell Profile picture PPinvest Profile picture Naz Masraff Profile picture 3 subscribed
Apr 23 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
🚨🇮🇹Italy is still importing a lot of🇷🇺Russian gas.
Despite political announcements made and calls by🇪🇺EU authorities to zero the gas flows from Russia, in March Italy has imported almost three times the gas it was importing a year ago.
This gas transit through🇺🇦Ukraine
🧵
Image At first, I could not believe my eyes. But digging, data is revealing an unpleasant truth. Italy still relies on Russian gas more than what could appear.
In March, Italy imports from Austria ballooned year-on-year and month-on-month.
Apr 22 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
🚨🇪🇨Ecuador is in a deep energy crisis.
The country is suffering from extended blackouts and the government has blocked the economy to avoid a grid collapse.
In a world full of tensions on markets, both climate change & political accountability are behind a new energy crisis.
🧵
Image A few days ago, the Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa declared an energy emergency with unprecedented measures undertaken to de facto paralyse the country's economy.
Last week, schools were suspended and all public and private sectors of the economy were halted to save energy.
Apr 19 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
🚨In the night,🇮🇱Israel has retaliated against🇮🇷Iran for the April 13th massive drone and missile barrage launched against its territory.
There are no reports of major damages. Markets are downplaying the threat of a further escalation.
What can the West do about this?
🧵
Image During the night, several drones have been spotted in the vicinity of Iranian major city of Isfahan, South of Tehran. The city is located in a strategic position of Iranian oil and network, with main pipelines reaching its vicinity.
Available reports of the event are providing
Apr 16 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
🚨Clouds are gathering around the Strait of Hormuz, one of the major global energy chokepoints, as🇮🇱Israel vows to respond to🇮🇷Iran.
From Europe to Asia, gas prices are rising along with the preoccupation for the security of supplies in case the escalation goes out of control.
🧵
Image After a Monday which left many analysts quite disappointed because of a mild market reaction, now we are starting to see some big movements in global energy indexes, especially regarding gas prices.
TTF front-month reached +6.5% this morning and now is still +4%, marking the
Apr 12 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
🚨A new wave of🇷🇺Russian attacks vs🇺🇦Ukrainian gas storages and power plants send prices to skyrocket in🇪🇺EU and knocks down Kyiv's energy supply. Energy and war are deeply interconnected.
While some say the energy crisis has already ended, the reality says something else.
🧵
Image Last weeks have been dramatic for Ukraine's energy system.
Russian troops have launched multiple attacks against Ukrainian energy infrastructures from occupied Ukraine, from the Russian territory and from air. Drones and ballistic missiles have particularly targeted
Apr 4 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
🚨🇪🇬Egypt's energy security is in great danger.
The country is shifting (again) from a gas exporter into an importer.
Many in the🇪🇺EU would like to turn Eastern Mediterranean into an energy hub to source gas and clean energy.
Energy security and geopolitics say the opposite.
🧵
Image Egypt's state-owned EGAS is rushing to secure LNG imports to avoid shortages over the next summer. Cairo is not just looking to buy sporadic cargoes, but is in fact seeking to secure more LNG deliveries throughout the entire spring and summer seasons in order to avoid shortages
Mar 28 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
🚨🇷🇺Russia has attacked🇺🇦Ukraine's largest gas storage facilities in the West of the country.
This is a significant news in terms of the energy war Moscow has launched against Kyiv, but also versus the🇪🇺EU.
Energy geopolitics is key to fully understanding the ongoing war
🧵
Image On Sunday, Russia launched an unprecedented attack against energy facilities in Ukraine.
By far, this was the largest strike conducted in the 2023/2024 winter.
The barrage consisted of more than a hundred missiles, drones and cluster warheads coming from all directions.
Mar 22 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
🚨The🇺🇸US has asked🇺🇦Ukraine to halt attacks on🇷🇺Russian oil refineries because of the risks of disrupting exports and provoking consequences for the global oil market, including rising prices for American consumers.
A rather contradictory development for energy geopolitics
🧵
Image Today, the FT says that Ukrainian's military and secret services have been repeatedly warned by the US about the possible consequences of Ukraine's drone strikes to Russian oil facilities in the Western oblasts of the Federation.
Mar 21 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
📯🇳🇬Nigeria's state-owned NNPC announced that by the end of 2024, the investment for the colossal🇲🇦 Nigeria-Morocco gas pipeline will be finalised.
Africa's gas ambitions and the strategic role of the region grow. The🇪🇺EU and other actors watch, but strategies are confused.
🧵
Image According to NNPC's CEO Mele Kyari, the Nigeria-Morocco gas pipeline (NMGP) could soon be brought to light as partners could take a final investment decision for the 7,000 km project by the end of the year.
The specifics and cost of the NMGP are simply staggering.
Mar 12 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
🚨The ambitious🇶🇦Qatar's LNG strategy is forcing🇮🇷Iran to accelerate the development of the South Pars/North Dome field.
Teheran wants to reap the benefits of the strategic importance of gas exports, but it must hurry and face the competition of Doha, who exploits the same gas
🧵
Image 🇮🇷Iran's state-owned National Iran Oil Co. has just announced a massive four-year development project aimed at increasing the gas production from the South Pars/North Dome field by over 2500 bcm of gas and 2 billion barrels of condensates in the next future.
Mar 7 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
🚨The transit of🇷🇺Russian gas through🇺🇦Ukraine and the continued purchases by several🇪🇺EU countries is becoming a key political issue.
The transit agreement is set to expire by the end of 2024. Energy security topples any other concerns and politics will soon need to face it.
🧵
Image By the end of 2024, the world's largest gas transit agreement between Russia and Ukraine will expire.
An internal document shows that the EU has invited countries to be prepared for a "worst case" scenario that could set the stage for a possible gas crisis in Central and SE EU
Feb 29 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
🚨🇮🇳India's reliance on coal to power its growing economy is simply appaling.
The government has massively invested in mining, prioritising coal in power generation while securing electricity supply during peak consumption periods.
Environmental protection is not a priority.
🧵
Image Since the beginning of the global energy crisis, India has doubled the efforts to make coal as the backbone of its energy system.
Grappling with widespread energy shortages that negatively affected its economy over the course of the last years, New Delhi has changed its strategy.
Feb 28 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
📯🇩🇰Denmark is the second country to abandon the investigation about the Nord Stream and Nord Stream 2 explosions, occurred in the Baltic Sea.
Only🇩🇪Germany remains with an open case and still investigating the sabotage.
The responsibility for the attacks is still unknown.
🧵
Image With a surprising decision, Copenhagen has decided to quit the investigation about the Nord Stream and Nord Stream 2 explosions.
The Danish police stated that "there is not the sufficient grounds to pursue a criminal case in Denmark." Still, the sabotage has been confirmed.
Feb 27 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
📯🇶🇦Qatar is betting on LNG exports to become an energy superpower.
The country has announced a new expansion of its production by 2030, vying with the🇺🇸US to become the largest LNG exporter in the world.
Qatar has a unique profile in the current global energy geopolitics
🧵
Image On Sunday, Qatar's Energy Minister Saad Al-Kaabi shocked the markets with the announcement of an increase of Qatar's LNG annual production capacity of 16 mt/y by 2030.
These volumes will be added to the previously announced 126 my/y expansion, expected for 2026/2027
Feb 22 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
📯🇬🇳Guinea will host world's largest mining investment.
After decades,🇬🇧UK-based Rio Tinto and 🇨🇳Chinese SOEs have decided to mine the Simandou mountains and finalise the Simfer and WCS projects.
Yet, tensions are increasing within the country and in Western Africa.
🧵
Image After 27 years of wrangling, twists and turns, Rio Tinto's board has committed to realise the world's largest mining project in Guinea, highlighting the importance of Africa as the meeting point of Western and Eastern energy geopolitics and transition strategies.
Feb 19 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
🚨A new security threat looms for international LNG projects in🇲🇿Mozambique, with reserves ready to be exported to global markets.
After a lull that lasted for many months, raising hopes for investors, new attacks and movements have been recorded in the Cabo Delgado province
🧵
Image Violence is spreading again in Cabo Delgado, the Northern province of Mozambique bordering with🇹🇿Tanzania and🇲🇼Malawi.
Over the last weeks, Islamic State-affiliated insurgents have launched attacks on both military and civilians, while tearing down churches and schools
Feb 17 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
🚨🇮🇱Israel is behind the sabotage of two major pipelines of the🇮🇷Iranian gas network.
This is what The New York Times is reporting, with anonymous confirmations from both Western and Iranian sources.
This is a major distressing development in regional energy geopolitics.
🧵
Image On Wednesday night, two major pipelines were hit by massive explosions, halting gas flows.
These pipelines link the vast gas fields in the South of Iran with the main consumption centres and regions in Central and North Iran, including the capital Teheran.
Feb 16 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
📯🇮🇩Indonesia's next President will be Prabowo Subianto, a former military with a controversial background.
With vast natural resources and being a key player in several global commodity markets, the result of these elections will be shaping global energy geopolitics.
🧵
Image The world’s third-largest democracy has decided. Prabowo Subianto, a former general with links to human rights abuses and former defence minister during Widodo's Presidency, is going to lead the country over the next years.
Feb 14 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
🚨Since the start of 2024, Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have almost halved🇶🇦Qatar's LNG cargoes to European markets.
Luckily for Europe, the winter has so far been extremely warm, reducing gas demand.
But what if the Summer turns hot and dry, and the War in Gaza continues?
🧵
Image We are living through a very dangerous time for the interconnections between national and energy security, the stability of energy markets, and the effects of climate change over our societies.
The implications of the War between Israel and Hamas are outright examples of this.
Feb 13 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
📯For the first time ever,🇩🇪Germany signs a deal to import natural gas from🇩🇿Algeria.
Berlin is trying to shore up its battered economy and diversify imports away from Russia.
Explicitly, the deal is a recognition of the strategic role of🇮🇹Italy as a key🇪🇺EU energy hub
Image There is more that we don't know compared to what we know about the new medium-term agreement that ties VNG, a subsidiary of German utility EnBW, and Sonatrach, the state-owned Algerian company that manages the second largest natural gas reserves in the whole African continent.
Feb 8 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
📯🇸🇪Sweden's authorities close the investigation concerning the sabotage of the Nord Stream.
Now it will be up to🇩🇪German &🇩🇰Danish authorities to continue the investigation and explain how such a critical infrastructure for the EU energy security blew up a year and a half ago
🧵
Image Swedish prosecutors confirmed that on September 26, 2022, several attacks were carried out directed at the Nord Stream pipeline system, connecting Russia to Germany, meaning the largest exporter of gas in the world, up to that time, and the largest gas consumer in the EU