Joni Askola Profile picture
Nov 12 9 tweets 4 min read Read on X
1/9 Europe isn’t ready for war.

@BohdanKrotevych warns the continent is playing at war instead of preparing for it.

Billions are spent on buzzwords like “AI” and the “drone revolution,” feeding an illusion of control.

Real war demands structure, discipline, and trained people Image
2/9 At a Kyiv event on the “drone wall”, Krotevych asked: Can you shift what does not exist?

Europe’s front line is imaginary.

Europe is not ready for real war. If Russia attacks the Baltics tomorrow, most European armies would collapse under their own illusions Image
3/9 His core point: equipment does not fight on its own.

A drone, a tank, a fighter jet are tools, not solutions.

Without trained people, logistics and command systems, they are just expensive metal Image
4/9 An army is not a pile of hardware.

It is a living system:
C4ISR, logistics, infantry, artillery, intelligence, medicine, communications.

Without this connectivity, even the best tech fragments into isolated pieces Image
5/9 Krotevych reminds Europe of the principles of war:

Objective, Offensive, Mass, Economy of Force, Maneuver, Unity of Command, Security, Surprise, Simplicity, Sustainability.

Without these, technology is just decoration Image
6/9 Money does not equal readiness.

Stark Defence raised $100M. All four test strikes failed.

Watchkeeper cost Britain £1B. Drones crashed before combat.

Concepts born without frontline experience die on first contact with reality Image
7/9 Finland is the exception. It shows what preparation looks like:

900k reservists, 280k mobilizable immediately. Ammunition and fuel stocks, shelters, fortifications, mobilization lists.

For Finland, war is an engineering task calculated by the hour Image
8/9 Europe’s biggest mistake is listening to theorists, not practitioners.

Generals who fought from offices, not trenches, shape policy.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian officers with real combat experience are ignored.

That experience could save Europe if Europe cared Image
9/9 Victory will not go to the side with the most tech but to the side that stops playing at war and starts preparing for it.

Invest in people, training and systems, not illusions.

Use Russia’s frozen assets. Step up military aid.

Every delay helps Moscow. Time is running out Image

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More from @joni_askola

Nov 11
1/6 Russia’s war economy is cracking under stagflation.

Ukraine’s ongoing strike campaign could make things worse Image
2/6 Stagflation might become a word Russians know well. Growth is falling while inflation stays quite high.

Oil revenues plunged 27% YoY in October, and non-oil revenues fell by 4% Image
3/6 Russia collected ₽888.6B ($9.7B) from oil and gas taxes in October, down 27% from last year.

Mineral extraction tax fell 26%.

Oil and gas revenues for 2025 are ₽2T lower than 2024 Image
Read 6 tweets
Nov 11
1/6 How long do we want Russia’s war on Ukraine to last?

Do we actually even want to end it?

Right now Europe and the US act like they are fine with it dragging on for years.

We have the tools to end it faster Image
2/6 We keep hoping the war will end by itself. It won’t.

Every month we delay, more Ukrainians die, Russia gets bolder, and the cost to us grows.

Waiting is not strategy that works Image
3/6 The US wants Europe to take responsibility.

Europe fears it and waits to see what Washington does, hoping Trump will magically end the war.

It won’t happen.

We can’t let Trump and Putin decide Europe’s fate Image
Read 6 tweets
Nov 10
1/7 Most people both underestimate and overestimate Russia at the same time.

It is fragile yet strong. Losing in Ukraine does not make it harmless.

Here is why Russia remains a serious threat until it is properly defeated Image
2/7 Russia has always been hard to understand for analysts living far away from it.

It can lose the war in Ukraine and still be dangerous for Europe.

It is weaker than many think but also stronger in ways that matter Image
3/7 Putin’s Russia is failing to achieve its strategic goals in Ukraine. That means it is losing the war.

Its weaknesses are real and numerous. But ignoring its strengths would be a mistake.

Map: @TheStudyofWar Image
Read 7 tweets
Nov 9
1/7 Another Russian lie debunked:

Why Russia’s 2022 Kyiv offensive was not a feint but the main plan Image
2/7 Russia claims the Kyiv offensive was just a feint to excuse its failure.

That is false.

Evidence shows it was the centerpiece of Putin’s invasion strategy, not a diversion Image
3/7 Russia committed elite forces to Kyiv:

VDV airborne units, Spetsnaz, and mechanized brigades.

A feint does not risk its best troops and equipment Image
Read 7 tweets
Oct 30
1/8 Ukraine will mourn Pokrovsk, but Russia will never recover from this war.

It is losing strategically, and the cost grows by the day.

Russia deserves its pathetic fate.

Maps: @TheStudyofWar Image
2/8 Ukraine is about to lose Pokrovsk after well over a year of brutal fighting.

Every city lost is a tragedy for Ukraine, but also a catastrophe for Russia.

Russia pays many times the acceptable military and human cost for every square kilometer it takes Image
3/8 Russia is all in. It has mobilized, recruited as much as possible, emptied prisons, shifted to a war economy, received military and financial aid from allies, and now uses North Korean troops and foreign mercenaries. This is not a partial effort. This is everything Russia has Image
Read 8 tweets
Oct 29
1/8 What if I told you the greatest threat to American power isn’t China or Russia, but Donald Trump?

Trump and his team are dismantling everything that made the US a global power Image
2/8 As Michael McFaul writes in The Atlantic, the US became a superpower by building alliances, defending democracy, promoting open markets, and leading global institutions.

Trump is actively destroying all four pillars, and much more Image
3/8 McFaul explains how Trump is demolishing the foundations of American power. But it goes further.

Trump is not just retreating from leadership. He is attacking the very core of what made the US strong Image
Read 8 tweets

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