James Young Profile picture
Nov 15 7 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Stock–Flow Consistent Formulation of
Kalecki–Young Sectoral Inflation Decomposition (KYSID)

"Recasting KYSID within a stock–flow consistent (SFC) framework clarifies that the inflation process is a balance-sheet outcome." Image
Core flow-of-funds identity Image
Distributional block Image
Inflation decomposition (consistent with KYSID) Image
Full SFC closure condition Image
By embedding the KYSID decomposition within the SFC matrix, the model gains full accounting closure and compatibility with the Post-Keynesian stock–flow tradition, while retaining the analytical tractability of its ratio-based form. Image
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More from @JamesYo43532848

Nov 17
Why Kalecki, Godley, and Minsky Are Unified Image
Kalecki provides the Income–Distribution Structure Image
Godley provides the Financing–Balance Sheet Structure Image
Read 10 tweets
Nov 16
Kalecki = Godley: The Unified Income–Financing Identity

A central result of this paper is that Kalecki’s profit identity and Godley’s sectoral balances identity are not separate theoretical constructions but two expressions of the same underlying mechanism, viewed from different sides of the national accounts.Image
Kalecki presents the income side; Godley presents the financing side.
Once placed within a stock–flow consistent (SFC) framework, the equivalence becomes exact. Image
Godley’s Sectoral Balances Identity (Financing View) Image
Read 22 tweets
Nov 15
Kalecki–Young Sectoral Inflation Decomposition (KYSID)

"It lets you both model inflation and attribute it sectorally—to wages, productivity, domestic debt saturation, and the external / tradables channel—within a consistent stock–flow, income‑distribution perspective." Image
Kalecki–Young Sectoral Inflation Decomposition (KYSID) Image
Kalecki’s mark‑up pricing and inflation Image
Read 17 tweets
Nov 13
Empirically, U.S. Inflation Follows the Kalecki Distributional Equation

Inflation in the United States is primarily profit-led in structure, wage-amplified in the short run, and productivity-limited in scope. Image
This relation implies that inflation arises from the distribution of income between labor and capital, not from expectations. Image
Regression Results Image
Read 6 tweets
Nov 8
The Constant-Rate Interest Burden as the Hidden Driver of Capital Share: Evidence from Balance-Sheet Saturation

This balance-sheet mechanism explains the secular rise in the capital share and the decline in labor share observed since the 1980s without appealing to exogenous technology shocks.Image
Conceptually, it represents the interest-service load that would prevail if monetary policy had not reduced nominal rates in response to debt expansion. While the actual burden rtL/Y fluctuates with policy cycles, the constant-rate version isolates the structural leverage component, reflecting the underlying stock of liabilities relative to income.Image
Data and Methodology Image
Read 21 tweets
Nov 3
Ergodicity vs expected-utility assumes the return distribution is exogenous.
But in a credit economy, returns are endogenously driven by balance-sheet expansion (A≈L).
Investors maximize share of system claims subject to leverage guardrails — not abstract utility or stationary distributions.
Kelly works within a balance-sheet regime, not instead of one.
Read 17 tweets

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