Thread by @clement_molin

The operational situation for the ukrainian 🇺🇦 army is getting increasingy more difficult

After losing most of Pokrovsk, Ukraine is facing an accelerated advance towards Zaporizhzhia in the south.

Russia 🇷🇺 is pushing everywhere at a faster pace.

🧵THREAD🧵1/16 ⬇️

Weeks from today, I was posting this showing that Russia was pushing to Zaporizhia and that the city may be threathened next year.

I wasn't wrong, Russia not only continued to push but made it faster, threatening Hulialpole, one of the main stronghold.

After crossing the Uspenivka-Poltavka line in only few days, the russian army is getting in sight of the Pokrovsk'e-Ternuvate-Hulialpole line.

They already reached the main road and may go around Hulialpole, an old stronghold of the southern front.

The situation on the Vovocha river is not better. If for 3 months at least, Ukraine have held, a mechanized assault using the fog to hide managed to enter half of Novopavlivka.

At the same time, the fall of Orestopil and the pression into Ivanivka raise fears of a crossing.

Ukraine still has an advantage, it holds the high ground and most of the rivers shore are being used as defensive line.

However, if there is still lot of water currently, it may soon change with the winter. The next weeks will be crucial.

In Pokrovsk, I believe that around 80 or 90% of the city is under russian control. This map shows geolocalisation before november in white, between november 1 and 8 in green and since then in orange. Russia forces are sighted in all of the city.

The situation in Myrnohrad remains very difficult for the last Ukrainian defenders, who are waging more of a guerrilla war than a pitched battle.

With half of Rodynske now under Russian control, the withdrawal from Myrnohrad is probably slowly underway.

The situation around Shakhove remains favorable to Ukraine, which has been able to halt all Russian assaults and, prevent any attempt to outflank the Donbas strongholds from the west.

The Ukrainian army is also continuing to reinforce its fortifications upstream.

The situation in the heart of the Donbas is not necessarily good; the Russian army is using the bad weather and fog to infiltrate Kostiantynivka and advance towards Siversk.

In Lyman, only a few kilometers remain before reaching the Siverki Donets River.

In Kupyansk, the first signs of a slow Ukrainian withdrawal are appearing, with Russian advances in the pocket east of the city. Fighting continues in the heart of the city; it is not yet possible to speak of total Russian control over any particular district.

Finally, the situation at Vovchansk has deteriorated, with the Russian army reaching the southern outskirts of the destroyed city.

In the long term, there is a risk of a wider advance southward, especially since the fortifications are very far from the current front line.

While the situation is more or less under control everywhere, with the Ukrainian army slowly retreating, the situation on the southern front is far more worrying.

New defensive lines are being hastily erected in the west.

I believe they want to protect Pavlohrad and Dnipro as well as central Ukraine with those 3 lines (there is now way they will finish the first one imo).

The main problem is that they are not connected south, which means, the area south is intended to be slowly abandonned.

In summary, the situation around Houlialpole is becoming increasingly difficult. The lack of reserves and the dilapidated state of the units present raise fears of an even faster advance.

Ultimately, Zaporizhzhia and its 800,000 inhabitants, 70 km to the west, are threatened.

Thanks for following along. Feel free to ask me questions and follow my account if you haven't already.

I've noticed a drastic drop in engagement and views; it's harder to post under these circumstances... Do you still see my posts ?

If you want further details of the overall situation, I recommend reading this :

https://x.com/KofmanMichael/status/1989384479098679688?s=20