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Honza Černý Profile picture
@honzacern1
Nov 17 • 12 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
🔥 THREAD: China Just Sounded the Silver Alarm (Nov 17, 2025)

1/
 China’s SGE/SHFE silver vaults just hit another all-time low.

Not “low for the month.”

Not “seasonally low.”

A record low.

Physical supply is getting dangerously tight.
2/
 Western media?

Silent.

But inside China?

Refineries are now working 24 hours a day, and import companies are pressuring Western suppliers to deliver physical silver on time — or face contractual consequences.
3/
 Today’s report shows a brutal number:

–47,715 kg (–47.7 tonnes) drained in a single week.
That’s not “normal.”

That is a structural shortage accelerating.
4/
 SGE vaults now sit at 774,705 kg — the lowest ever recorded.

For context:
At this pace, China will wipe out its exchange-visible silver in months, not years.
5/
 Remember: China is the #1 global consumer of silver for:

• Solar
• Electronics
• EVs
• High-tech manufacturing
• Military and aerospace
• Refining for export supply chains

This isn’t some niche demand.
This is the industrial bloodstream of the world.
6/
 China doesn’t let its industries run out of critical metals.

If domestic supply tightens…
China goes aggressively to the global market.
That means one thing for Western investors:
Higher competition for physical.
7/
 And here’s the real signal:

When Chinese refineries run 24/7, it means they’re preparing for:

• Big state purchases
• Strategic stockpile building
• Export-chain protection
• And possibly a major geopolitical realignment in metals

This is NOT normal peacetime behavior.
8/
 If you think spot price “reflects the real market,” ask yourself:

Why is physical vanishing while price stays calm?

Answer:
Because paper contracts still pretend silver is abundant.
China’s data just exposed the lie.
9/
 This matters for stackers because:

• The West is losing its silver cushion
• China is signaling scarcity
• Industrial demand is accelerating
• Vaults are draining everywhere (JP Morgan, LBMA, COMEX)
• Physical premiums rise before spot reacts
Stackers see this before anyone else.
10/
 If China is begging Western suppliers to deliver on schedule, that means the real world is already experiencing a physical squeeze that the charts are hiding.

When the East runs dry, the West will panic-buy.
And by then?

It’s too late.
11/
 Final takeaway?

Stackers aren’t early. Everyone else is late.
China just confirmed what we’ve been saying for years:

Silver scarcity isn’t coming.
It’s already here.

Stay physical. Stay disciplined. Stay ahead.

#Silver #SilverSqueeze #SilverMarket #StackerLogic
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More from @honzacern1

Honza Černý Profile picture
Nov 17
THREAD: Japan Just Broke the Global Money Machine — Here’s What It Means 🧵🌍

1/
 Japan’s 10-year bond yield just hit 1.73% — the highest since 2008.
Most people don’t realize it, but this number can shake the entire world economy.

Here’s why. 👇 Image
2/
 For 30 years, Japan kept interest rates at 0% and printed money endlessly.
That cheap money was exported everywhere:

• US Treasuries
• European bonds
• Emerging markets
• Global stock markets

Japan was the world’s “silent buyer.”
3/
 Now that Japanese yields are rising, everything changes.
When yields go up, Japanese investors stop buying foreign debt and start pulling money back home.

This is already happening.
Read 11 tweets
Honza Černý Profile picture
Nov 16
🧵The Liquidity Picture Nobody Wants to Talk About
Something really odd is happening right now.

On the surface, markets act like everything is under control.

But the underlying data tells a very different story.
Two things line up almost perfectly:👇 Image
1) The RRP facility is basically empty
Not long ago, it held $2.4 trillion.

Today? Around $1.5 billion.

That’s not a “normal adjustment” — that’s the system running without its safety buffer.

When the backstop is gone, the financial engine is exposed.

This isn’t theory or speculation.

It’s the clearest sign of tightening liquidity we’ve seen in more than a decade.
2) Yet markets still think the Fed won’t cut in December

FedWatch shows roughly 55% expecting no change.

That alone says a lot:

the market is still clinging to the “higher for longer” narrative.

But that narrative doesn’t match what’s happening underneath.

Zero excess liquidity and elevated rates simply don’t coexist for long.

History is very consistent here — when liquidity dries up, the system chooses its own path.Image
Read 6 tweets
Honza Černý Profile picture
Nov 15
1️⃣

China is quietly draining its silver vaults.
If the current pace holds, exchange stocks hit zero in about 2 months.

Not a slogan – just math from SGE/SHFE’s own reports. 👇 #silver Image
2️⃣

Start of the period (late September 2025):

• SHFE vaults: ~1,189,648 kg
Mid-November 2025:
• SHFE vaults: 576,894 kg

That’s a drawdown of –612,754 kg in 46 days – roughly 13 tonnes per day just from the futures exchange.
3️⃣

Spot side (SGE weekly vaults):

• Late September: 1,216,965 kg
• Early November: 822,420 kg

Drawdown: –394,545 kg in about six weeks.
That’s another ~9 tonnes per day leaving visible inventories.
Read 13 tweets
Honza Černý Profile picture
Nov 15
🧵 THE SYSTEM IS STRAINING — AND SILVER KNOWS IT

(Grand Thread for Silverstackers)

1️⃣
When the New York Fed quietly convenes an emergency meeting with Wall Street banks to discuss a key lending facility, it means one thing:

👉 Liquidity is cracking.

Not “in theory.” Not “sometime later.”
Now.

Even the Fed admits money markets are tightening faster than expected.

Thanks to: @KingKong9888 @DarioCpx @kshaughnessy2Image
Image
Image
2️⃣
Why does this matter?
Because when the Fed has to remind banks to use its Standing Repo Facility, it means the institutions prefer to borrow at higher rates in the market rather than tap the Fed.

That only happens when banks are:

✅stressed

✅unsure who’s solvent

✅or scared of revealing weakness

This is how cracks look from the inside.
3️⃣
And just as the Fed is scrambling, Deutsche Bank sounds the alarm:

“Diverging equity and credit markets signal potential instability.”

When stocks and credit decouple, it means one thing:

👉 The market is lying about risk.
Credit sees reality.
Equities pretend it’s all fine.

This divergence has preceded every major crisis of the last 25 years.
Read 10 tweets
Honza Černý Profile picture
Nov 14
🧵 SILVERSTACKERS: READ THIS BEFORE YOU PANIC 👇

1️⃣ Price action ≠ thesis

Yes, silver just took a violent hit: we dropped a couple of dollars from a double top above $54 to the low $50s in hours.

That’s not “the end of the bull market”.

That’s what a tightly coiled market looks like when leverage gets nuked.Image
2️⃣ Gold says the monetary reset is ON

Gold is still trading around $4,000+ after setting fresh all-time highs above $4,300 this autumn.

You don’t get record gold and $50+ silver in a healthy fiat system.
You get it when the system is quietly breaking.
3️⃣ The Fed’s safety net is basically gone

The Fed’s reverse repo facility has been drained from $2.5T at the peak to roughly tens of billions left – essentially empty.

Translation: the big pool of “excess cash” that cushioned markets is over.
From here on, every shock hits harder.
Read 11 tweets
Honza Černý Profile picture
Nov 10
🧵 NUCLEAR SILVER: The Secret No One Talks About ⚛️🥈

1️⃣ Nuclear plants are silver devourers.
Each large reactor (1,600–1,800 MW) needs 3–5 million ounces of silver for control rods and critical systems.
Silver is irreplaceable here — it literally regulates nuclear reactions.
2️⃣ These rods aren’t “one and done.”
They must be periodically replaced, meaning constant demand.

No AI magic or digital workaround can replace physical silver in this process.
3️⃣ The 2025 supply nightmare is real:

➡️ Nearly 100% of mine output now goes to industrial demand.

➡️ Zero silver left for investors at current production levels.

➡️ Chronic deficits have become “insane” — and accelerating.
Read 9 tweets

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