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Honza Černý Profile picture
@honzacern1
Nov 17 • 12 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
🔥 THREAD: China Just Sounded the Silver Alarm (Nov 17, 2025)

1/
 China’s SGE/SHFE silver vaults just hit another all-time low.

Not “low for the month.”

Not “seasonally low.”

A record low.

Physical supply is getting dangerously tight.
2/
 Western media?

Silent.

But inside China?

Refineries are now working 24 hours a day, and import companies are pressuring Western suppliers to deliver physical silver on time — or face contractual consequences.
3/
 Today’s report shows a brutal number:

–47,715 kg (–47.7 tonnes) drained in a single week.
That’s not “normal.”

That is a structural shortage accelerating.
4/
 SGE vaults now sit at 774,705 kg — the lowest ever recorded.

For context:
At this pace, China will wipe out its exchange-visible silver in months, not years.
5/
 Remember: China is the #1 global consumer of silver for:

• Solar
• Electronics
• EVs
• High-tech manufacturing
• Military and aerospace
• Refining for export supply chains

This isn’t some niche demand.
This is the industrial bloodstream of the world.
6/
 China doesn’t let its industries run out of critical metals.

If domestic supply tightens…
China goes aggressively to the global market.
That means one thing for Western investors:
Higher competition for physical.
7/
 And here’s the real signal:

When Chinese refineries run 24/7, it means they’re preparing for:

• Big state purchases
• Strategic stockpile building
• Export-chain protection
• And possibly a major geopolitical realignment in metals

This is NOT normal peacetime behavior.
8/
 If you think spot price “reflects the real market,” ask yourself:

Why is physical vanishing while price stays calm?

Answer:
Because paper contracts still pretend silver is abundant.
China’s data just exposed the lie.
9/
 This matters for stackers because:

• The West is losing its silver cushion
• China is signaling scarcity
• Industrial demand is accelerating
• Vaults are draining everywhere (JP Morgan, LBMA, COMEX)
• Physical premiums rise before spot reacts
Stackers see this before anyone else.
10/
 If China is begging Western suppliers to deliver on schedule, that means the real world is already experiencing a physical squeeze that the charts are hiding.

When the East runs dry, the West will panic-buy.
And by then?

It’s too late.
11/
 Final takeaway?

Stackers aren’t early. Everyone else is late.
China just confirmed what we’ve been saying for years:

Silver scarcity isn’t coming.
It’s already here.

Stay physical. Stay disciplined. Stay ahead.

#Silver #SilverSqueeze #SilverMarket #StackerLogic
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More from @honzacern1

Honza Černý Profile picture
Nov 18
1/
 🥈 Something big is happening with silver (AGAIN).

India, China, the US, Australia – four different stories, one message:

silver is quietly moving from “industrial metal” to strategic asset.

Stackers are front-running a reset most people don’t even see.
2/
 Look at India.
Every time global markets wobble, India’s silver imports spike like a heart attack on a chart.

2022 was wild. 2024–25 is back near those extremes.
That’s not normal jewelry demand – that’s a nation vacuuming physical while it’s still cheap. Image
3/
 Now zoom to China.

SGE/SHFE vault inventories have been bleeding out while Beijing tightens export controls and licenses on silver.

When the world’s factory starts hoarding metal instead of exporting it, it’s telling you something about the future of supply.
Read 12 tweets
Honza Černý Profile picture
Nov 18
THREAD: China’s Silver Shortage Is Getting Worse — And the Data Just Confirmed It

1/
 China’s SGE/SHFE silver vaults just hit another new low.
Not yesterday.
Not last week.
Today. Again.

This is no longer a “trend.”
This is a structural shortage unfolding in real time. Image
2/
 Let’s compare the last 48 hours:

Nov 17:
–7,539 kg (–7.5 tons) removed from SHFE
Weekly SGE drop: –47,715 kg (–47.7 tons)

Nov 18:
–5,684 kg (–5.7 tons) removed from SHFE

📉 Total: 13.2 tons gone in 48 hours

That’s not a market.
That’s extraction.
3/
 According to Bai Xiaojun, insiders in China confirm

🇨🇳 Chinese import companies are pressuring Western suppliers to deliver physical silver ON SCHEDULE
i.e., no more delays, no excuses

🇨🇳 Domestic refineries are running 24 hours a day

This is what real shortage looks like.
Read 10 tweets
Honza Černý Profile picture
Nov 17
Everyone keeps asking: Why December 31?
Because that’s the day the LBMA can’t hide behind “paper silver” anymore.

Here’s the uncomfortable truth:

1) Year-end is the physical reconciliation window
Every December 31 the LBMA has to match:

physical inventory
client allocations

ETF redemptions

leasing obligations

forward contracts

metal loan rollovers

Most of the year, the system is opaque.
But year-end forces transparency — at least internally.

If the metal isn’t there, it becomes visible on this date.
2) China is draining global silver at a rate the LBMA cannot replace SGE/SHFE withdrawals of 40–50 tons per week are unprecedented.

At this pace, hundreds of tons vanish every month.
Western vaults cannot refill at the same speed.
Refineries are already running near capacity.

ETF outflows are the last safety valve — and even that is thinning out.

By December 31, if the physical gap is too large, the LBMA hits a wall.
3) December = ETF rebalancing + vault audits + settlement pressure

This is when:
SLV must prove physical backing

banks must verify allocated metal

auditors demand documentation

unallocated positions must be justified

COMEX/LBMA spreads tighten

If LBMA vaults can’t show enough metal, the system can’t roll smoothly into 2026.
Read 5 tweets
Honza Černý Profile picture
Nov 17
🧵 Thread: The Silver Tug-of-War Nobody Is Ready For

1️⃣
Japan just detonated a global bomb.
A 2.75% yield on the 20-year JGB is a signal:
the world’s cheap-money era is OVER.

Liquidity is tightening everywhere — and the margin calls are just starting.

Prepare yourselves

2️⃣
So let’s talk #SILVER.

Because what’s coming is a brutal tug-of-war between:
paper manipulation
vs.
real-world physical fundamentals
…and the ending will not be a draw.
3️⃣
On the paper side?
blatant price suppression

leveraged futures

forced selling during liquidity stress

margin calls hitting funds and banks across the board

This can temporarily push the price down, even when demand is exploding.
Read 12 tweets
Honza Černý Profile picture
Nov 17
THREAD: Japan Just Broke the Global Money Machine — Here’s What It Means 🧵🌍

1/
 Japan’s 10-year bond yield just hit 1.73% — the highest since 2008.
Most people don’t realize it, but this number can shake the entire world economy.

Here’s why. 👇 Image
2/
 For 30 years, Japan kept interest rates at 0% and printed money endlessly.
That cheap money was exported everywhere:

• US Treasuries
• European bonds
• Emerging markets
• Global stock markets

Japan was the world’s “silent buyer.”
3/
 Now that Japanese yields are rising, everything changes.
When yields go up, Japanese investors stop buying foreign debt and start pulling money back home.

This is already happening.
Read 11 tweets
Honza Černý Profile picture
Nov 16
🧵The Liquidity Picture Nobody Wants to Talk About
Something really odd is happening right now.

On the surface, markets act like everything is under control.

But the underlying data tells a very different story.
Two things line up almost perfectly:👇 Image
1) The RRP facility is basically empty
Not long ago, it held $2.4 trillion.

Today? Around $1.5 billion.

That’s not a “normal adjustment” — that’s the system running without its safety buffer.

When the backstop is gone, the financial engine is exposed.

This isn’t theory or speculation.

It’s the clearest sign of tightening liquidity we’ve seen in more than a decade.
2) Yet markets still think the Fed won’t cut in December

FedWatch shows roughly 55% expecting no change.

That alone says a lot:

the market is still clinging to the “higher for longer” narrative.

But that narrative doesn’t match what’s happening underneath.

Zero excess liquidity and elevated rates simply don’t coexist for long.

History is very consistent here — when liquidity dries up, the system chooses its own path.Image
Read 6 tweets

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