Eric Jackson Profile picture
Nov 17 9 tweets 2 min read Read on X
People yelling “BETR is losing money!” 🤡
Yeah… the old mortgage business lost money.
Tinman + Betsy didn’t.

This is exactly like Palantir before AIP.
Everyone judged the company on the pre-AI era, not the platform that was about to explode.
2022–24 was the worst housing market in 40+ years:
📉 Rates from 3% → 8%
📉 Refis died
📉 Originations collapsed
📉 Every lender bled money

That’s not an AI problem.
That’s the macro cycle destroying every mortgage company.

Just like PLTR’s old gov contracts masked the future.
While the industry drowned, BETR pulled a Palantir move (and all credit goes to @vishalgarg1_0 ):
They rebuilt their entire company around AI + ontology.
•Tinman is the ontology:
A unified data graph of customers, properties, documents, investors, risk rules, and workflows.
•Betsy is the AIP:
An agentic AI that replaces LOs, processors, underwriters, condition clearers — just like AIP agents replace analysts.

This is 1:1 with PLTR’s architecture.
Most people don’t get this:
Tinman isn’t software.
It’s Foundry for mortgages.

A single operating system that ties together:
•data
•rules
•compliance
•pricing
•investor matching
•documentation
•credit box logic
•risk models
•every human action in the flow

PLTR calls this ontology.
BETR built their own.
Betsy isn’t a chatbot.
Betsy is a production AI operator.

She:
✔ issues pre-approvals
✔ clears conditions
✔ matches borrowers to investors
✔ writes docs
✔ prices loans
✔ reduces defects
✔ collapses cycle time
✔ slashes headcount

Exactly like PLTR’s AIP agents operating supply chains, maintenance, insurance, logistics, fraud, etc.
And here’s the punchline nobody gets:

Tinman Platform + Tinman Software earn 40–80% margins.
Just like PLTR’s commercial business once the ontology matured and AIP hit.

The losses came from the legacy mortgage world.
The profits will come from the ontology + AIP AI world.

Same story as PLTR 2018–2022.
And I missed PLTR, but I’m not going to miss others following the PLTR playbook.
And BETR just guided to doubling the business in 6 months.

That’s not normal lender behaviour.
That’s a Palantir-style S-curve.

The inflection is happening now —
and the Street will only notice after the numbers hit.
OPEN and BETR are the two companies following the PLTR playbook the closest:
•Ontology → unify the world
•AIP → intelligent agents automate it
•Legacy → burned down
•AI → drives margins + velocity
•Repricing → comes fast and violent

Retail always sees this before Wall Street.
So no — BETR isn’t “losing money.”
The past was losing money.
The ontology era is about to mint it.

PLTR had this exact setup.
Then AIP hit.
Then the multiple went vertical.

BETR is walking the same path — in a trillion-dollar industry that hasn’t been modernized since the 1970s.

Rising Dynasty sees the turn. 🚀

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More from @ericjackson

Nov 16
Here are 9 reasons why $BETR is following the exact blueprint $PLTR used before its explosion — and why the math points to a potential $12,000/share outcome in 3 years. 🧵
1. Tinman = mortgage/home-equity ontology.
Palantir’s whole re-rating began when investors realized ontology wasn’t “software” — it was the data backbone of entire enterprises.
Tinman is the equivalent for the $15T U.S. housing finance system:
• Consumer graph
• Property graph
• Investor criteria graph
All fused into one decision engine.
This does not exist anywhere else in mortgage.
2. Betsy = the AIP moment.
PLTR didn’t inflect until AIP sat on top of ontology.
BETR now has Betsy doing the same:
• Loan officer + processor + underwriter + closer
• 700k interactions/quarter
• Lead-to-lock +84%
• Defect rate 19× lower than industry
• Infinite concurrency
This is the industry’s first Agentic AI mortgage engine.
Read 10 tweets
Nov 16
10 Reasons You Need to Live By the “Own the Future, Don’t Rent It” Rising Dynasty Mantra
1/ Most people spend their entire lives renting their destiny.
They rent their time to employers.
They rent their beliefs from analysts.
They rent their confidence from the crowd.
The future belongs to the people who own their decisions.
2/ Paycheck thinking is dead. Asymmetric thinking is the new literacy.
AI is rewiring the world.
Linear income streams won’t cut it.
You need asymmetric upside — the kind institutions aren’t trained to recognize.
Owning the future means owning asymmetric bets.
Read 11 tweets
Nov 16
@vladtenev said something controversial this week:
AI will replace so many jobs that retail investors will need to trade more to generate extra income.

Is that self-serving?
Yes.
Is it probably true?
Also yes.

The uncomfortable part is that most people have no plan for what’s coming.
Let’s be honest:
For decades, the middle class outsourced its financial future to “experts” — wealth managers, glossy banks, pension boards.

And what did we get?
High fees, closet indexing, and a decade where retail outperformed institutions in almost every major inflection point.
AI is about to widen that gap.
Not because retail is doomed…
…but because the world is shifting from paycheck thinking to asymmetric thinking.

If your income stream becomes volatile, the only antidote is to own assets that can change your life.
Read 8 tweets
Nov 16
“Can $OPEN follow the $PLTR playbook?”

After Kaz’s first earnings call as CEO last week, my answer is: yes – and the blueprint is right there in the transcript. 🧵
Palantir playbook in 3 beats:

1️⃣ Misunderstood for years (“glorified consulting”)
2️⃣ Ontology + AIP quietly rewires customer workflows
3️⃣ Revenue & margins inflect → market finally rerates

@CanadaKaz just outlined the housing version of that.
Step 1: Refound the company as software, not a trade.

Kaz: “We believe we’re a software company and our leverage comes from engineers writing code.”

That’s PLTR 2005–2018 energy: infra first, optics later.
Read 16 tweets
Nov 16
10 Things Hidden in Palantir’s Earnings Calls That the “AI Bubble” Crowd Completely Missed

Everyone screams about the multiple.
But nobody reads the footnotes, the metrics, or the CEO quotes — because they’re lazy.

Here are the 10 most underappreciated signals buried in the last 4 calls 👇🧵
People say Palantir at 60× forward sales is “unsustainable.”

Ok — then explain how the company posted a 114% Rule of 40 last quarter.
Show me another software company at scale doing 60%+ growth AND 50%+ margins.

That’s not a bubble.
That’s world-class unit economics that most analysts STILL don’t model correctly.
Do they even know what the Rule of 40 is?
U.S. commercial — the purest “AI” part of the business — is growing triple digits…
while becoming a bigger share of total revenue.

Bubbles fade as they scale.
Ontology accelerates as it scales.

This is the opposite of froth.
This is compounding adoption.
Read 12 tweets
Nov 15
“AI is a bubble.”
“Palantir at 62× forward sales is insane.”

Cool story — except the last 4 earnings calls show the opposite.

PLTR isn’t overpriced.
The market is still underestimating how fast revenue explodes when you OWN the ontology layer.
Let’s walk through the receipts and see why Michael Burry is so wrong on Alex Karp 🧵
Start with the topline everyone hand-waves away:

Q3 2025:
•63% YoY revenue growth
•18% QoQ
•U.S. revenue +77%
•U.S. commercial +121%
•Rule of 40 = 114% (revenue growth + op margin)

Karp’s words, not mine: these are “arguably the best results that any software company has ever delivered.”

Bubble stocks don’t do that.
This isn’t a one-off.

Q2 2025:
•Revenue +48% YoY
•U.S. +68%
•U.S. commercial +93%
•Rule of 40 = 94%

Q1 2025:
•Revenue +39% YoY
•U.S. +55%
•U.S. commercial +71%

You don’t get accelerating growth at this scale if this is just meme-stock froth. That’s what an S-curve looks like before Wall Street’s models catch up.
Read 14 tweets

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