Here is a comprehensive thread on why, both legally and practically, the 28-point plan is shockingly awful. It excuses the 2022 invasion, gives Trump access to endless power over Ukraine even after he leaves office, and is totally one-sided. It even violates the US Constitution.
"1. Ukraine's sovereignty will be confirmed"
This is meaningless. It is a truism, not a concrete statement backed with enforcement mechanisms. It says a conclusion, but not how it is achieved. Further, the whole document contradicts it. Not a good start.
This is meaningless. It is a truism, not a concrete statement backed with enforcement mechanisms. It says a conclusion, but not how it is achieved. Further, the whole document contradicts it. Not a good start.
"2. A comprehensive non-aggression agreement will be concluded . . . All ambiguities of the last 30 years will be considered settled."
Yes, Budapest 1994 again, but look deeper: it hides Russia's intentional breaches of prior agreements behind the veil of "ambiguities" and treats the US and Europe as equal threats to Russia.
Yes, Budapest 1994 again, but look deeper: it hides Russia's intentional breaches of prior agreements behind the veil of "ambiguities" and treats the US and Europe as equal threats to Russia.
"3. It is expected that Russia will not invade neighboring countries and NATO will not expand further."
This says nothing, legally. It doesn't say "Russia promises not to invade." No obligation is identified, for any signatory. It's also a ludicrous take on history.
This says nothing, legally. It doesn't say "Russia promises not to invade." No obligation is identified, for any signatory. It's also a ludicrous take on history.
"4. A dialogue will be held between Russia and NATO, mediated by the United States, to resolve all security issues and create conditions for de-escalation in order to ensure global security and increase opportunities for cooperation and future economic development."
The first of many "agreements to talk with zero clear obligations." Agreements to agree are not enforceable contracts. This matters because why? Because Russia LOVES flowery language that is effusive but standardless. This is the coral reef of endless bullshit it will hide behind.
They can say "you didn't 'create conditions for de-escalation'" as a pretext to pull a South Ossetia or Little Green Men episode. They can always claim a breach, and always escape their own violations. This is the new "but the Minsk Agreements" online bots will be parroting in 3 years when Russia inevitably commits some act of aggression.
The first of many "agreements to talk with zero clear obligations." Agreements to agree are not enforceable contracts. This matters because why? Because Russia LOVES flowery language that is effusive but standardless. This is the coral reef of endless bullshit it will hide behind.
They can say "you didn't 'create conditions for de-escalation'" as a pretext to pull a South Ossetia or Little Green Men episode. They can always claim a breach, and always escape their own violations. This is the new "but the Minsk Agreements" online bots will be parroting in 3 years when Russia inevitably commits some act of aggression.
"5. Ukraine will receive reliable security guarantees."
Apparently there is such a thing as an "unreliable" security guarantee. Putting "reliable" in front of an obligation doesn't transform it by magic words. Are the other duties in the plan not trustworthy because it doesn't say "reliable" _____ in front of them? Circular nonsense.
Apparently there is such a thing as an "unreliable" security guarantee. Putting "reliable" in front of an obligation doesn't transform it by magic words. Are the other duties in the plan not trustworthy because it doesn't say "reliable" _____ in front of them? Circular nonsense.
"6. The size of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be limited to 600,000 personnel."
See how this implicitly treats Ukraine as the provocateur, the menace, the threat? It ex post facto creates a justification for Russia's invasion. Also, there's no limitation on Russia's military.
See how this implicitly treats Ukraine as the provocateur, the menace, the threat? It ex post facto creates a justification for Russia's invasion. Also, there's no limitation on Russia's military.
"7. Ukraine agrees to enshrine in its constitution that it will not join NATO, and NATO agrees to include in its statutes a provision that Ukraine will not be admitted in the future."
Forcing a Constitutional amendment that may require a vote is just setting up a breach before the fact, and the rules based order is dead if aggressor nations can dictate to defensive alliances and their membership.
Forcing a Constitutional amendment that may require a vote is just setting up a breach before the fact, and the rules based order is dead if aggressor nations can dictate to defensive alliances and their membership.
"8. NATO agrees not to station troops in Ukraine.
9. European fighter jets will be stationed in Poland."
This makes Ukraine entirely reliant on U.S. security guarantees, which are worthless and subject to changing political winds. It also divides Ukraine from NATO.
9. European fighter jets will be stationed in Poland."
This makes Ukraine entirely reliant on U.S. security guarantees, which are worthless and subject to changing political winds. It also divides Ukraine from NATO.
"10. The U.S. guarantee: The U.S. will receive compensation for the guarantee"
This ensures the security guarantee will be miniscule, at best. Ukraine can't afford to pay for its military and the U.S. response. Eviscerates any foreign help through this and 8-9.
This ensures the security guarantee will be miniscule, at best. Ukraine can't afford to pay for its military and the U.S. response. Eviscerates any foreign help through this and 8-9.
"13. Russia will be reintegrated into the global economy: The United States will enter into a long-term economic cooperation agreement for mutual development in the areas of energy, natural resources, infrastructure, artificial intelligence, data centers, rare earth metal extraction projects in the Arctic, and other mutually beneficial corporate opportunities."
A blatant conflict of interest for the U.S. Worthless opportunity as well. Russia lacks the rule of law protections to make this valuable. There is no point to doing business in a mafia state. Just imbecilic, 5 year old Trump level understanding of Russian economics and business. Throwing crayons at the moon.
Also, Russian AI? What do they have to offer, drunk exploding robots?
A blatant conflict of interest for the U.S. Worthless opportunity as well. Russia lacks the rule of law protections to make this valuable. There is no point to doing business in a mafia state. Just imbecilic, 5 year old Trump level understanding of Russian economics and business. Throwing crayons at the moon.
Also, Russian AI? What do they have to offer, drunk exploding robots?
"14. Frozen funds will be used as follows: . . . The US will receive 50% of the profits from this venture."
Blood money theft. Genocide-profiteering. Irreconcilable conflict of interest for the U.S. Taken in combination, this plan subjugates Ukraine as a vassal state of the U.S. It is Haiti-France level exploitation. Unprecedented and obscene. Also, how the hell is Ukraine supposed to pay the U.S. 50% of the profits AND pay for a security guarantee?
Blood money theft. Genocide-profiteering. Irreconcilable conflict of interest for the U.S. Taken in combination, this plan subjugates Ukraine as a vassal state of the U.S. It is Haiti-France level exploitation. Unprecedented and obscene. Also, how the hell is Ukraine supposed to pay the U.S. 50% of the profits AND pay for a security guarantee?
"15. A joint American-Russian working group on security issues will be established to promote and ensure compliance with all provisions of this agreement."
Ahh, the famous "Russian Council of Endless Fuckery." This is just a way for the Russians to engage in ceaseless negotiations, circularity, and self-serving excuses for their inevitable violations down the road.
It is too vague to be enforceable or to tell when someone is in violation. That's their point. And why is Ukraine cut out? Again, treats Ukraine like a colony.
Ahh, the famous "Russian Council of Endless Fuckery." This is just a way for the Russians to engage in ceaseless negotiations, circularity, and self-serving excuses for their inevitable violations down the road.
It is too vague to be enforceable or to tell when someone is in violation. That's their point. And why is Ukraine cut out? Again, treats Ukraine like a colony.
"16. Russia will enshrine in law its policy of non-aggression towards Europe and Ukraine."
Great, we can wipe our ass with it. The law is what Putin says it is. Ukraine can't enforce Russia's laws anyways. We have been down this road before.
Great, we can wipe our ass with it. The law is what Putin says it is. Ukraine can't enforce Russia's laws anyways. We have been down this road before.
"All Nazi ideology and activities must be rejected and prohibited."
Another ex post facto justification for the invasion 3.5 years ago. Time machine by contract. Utterly unenforceable. Vague. Accusatory.
Another ex post facto justification for the invasion 3.5 years ago. Time machine by contract. Utterly unenforceable. Vague. Accusatory.
"21. Territories: Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk will be recognized as de facto Russian, including by the United States."
Russia hasn't obtained this in 15 years of combat and 1.4 million casualties. It will expose from a terrain and fortification perspective, more of Ukraine. Requires a vote that Ukraine may not agree to as a whole.
Russia hasn't obtained this in 15 years of combat and 1.4 million casualties. It will expose from a terrain and fortification perspective, more of Ukraine. Requires a vote that Ukraine may not agree to as a whole.
"25. Ukraine will hold elections in 100 days."
Clear violation of the international law principle that bans coercion. Using agreements taken under military force to interfere in the internal affairs of another country, the victim. And how about Russia holds elections in 100 days? Of course not.
Clear violation of the international law principle that bans coercion. Using agreements taken under military force to interfere in the internal affairs of another country, the victim. And how about Russia holds elections in 100 days? Of course not.
"26. All parties involved in this conflict will receive full amnesty for their actions during the war and agree not to make any claims or consider any complaints in the future."
This eviscerates any hope of deterrence in the future and will collapse the rules-based order. This line cannot be crossed for war crimes.
Imagine a soldier in a future conflict standing over a civilian female saying "gee, if I can just get some territorial bargaining chip, I can rape and enslave her and trade her like an object later." We cannot as a civilization tolerate this. It must be off the table. War criminals must never have a "get out of jail free" card.
Further, the Ukrainian state should not be permitted to bargain away the rights of its victims to pursue compensation and other justice without their informed consent.
This eviscerates any hope of deterrence in the future and will collapse the rules-based order. This line cannot be crossed for war crimes.
Imagine a soldier in a future conflict standing over a civilian female saying "gee, if I can just get some territorial bargaining chip, I can rape and enslave her and trade her like an object later." We cannot as a civilization tolerate this. It must be off the table. War criminals must never have a "get out of jail free" card.
Further, the Ukrainian state should not be permitted to bargain away the rights of its victims to pursue compensation and other justice without their informed consent.
"27. This agreement will be legally binding. Its implementation will be monitored and guaranteed by the Peace Council, headed by President Donald J. Trump. Sanctions will be imposed for violations."
Unprecedentedly awful. So many issues. First, Trump will have power over Urkaine AFTER he's not President? Think about this. He will use this to blackmail Ukraine for business deals during reconstruction. Massive conflict of interest.
Second, this is wildly unconstitutional. It allows Trump to rewrite the Constitution by giving him the power to issue sanctions, alone, and to do so apparently when he is out of office.
Third, this is like creating an office of the king to reign supreme over Ukraine, a democracy. Giving this power to any one person is ludicrous, giving it to a person who bankrupted a casino, engaged in rape, and proven financial misconduct is beyond insanity. Bad faith drips off this provision, and the rest of the document.
Fourth, it also violates the Constitution by giving Trump power to interfere with a future President's conduct of foreign policy.
Unprecedentedly awful. So many issues. First, Trump will have power over Urkaine AFTER he's not President? Think about this. He will use this to blackmail Ukraine for business deals during reconstruction. Massive conflict of interest.
Second, this is wildly unconstitutional. It allows Trump to rewrite the Constitution by giving him the power to issue sanctions, alone, and to do so apparently when he is out of office.
Third, this is like creating an office of the king to reign supreme over Ukraine, a democracy. Giving this power to any one person is ludicrous, giving it to a person who bankrupted a casino, engaged in rape, and proven financial misconduct is beyond insanity. Bad faith drips off this provision, and the rest of the document.
Fourth, it also violates the Constitution by giving Trump power to interfere with a future President's conduct of foreign policy.
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