Thread by @ericjackson

Everyone’s talking “AI bubble popping” and “the top is in for tech.”

But if you look under the hood, the tape is screaming something very different:

We’re in max de-risking mode, not “AI is over” mode. 👇

Yesterday, one trading desk flagged 0th percentile trade pressure:

Roughly $6.2B and $7.5B notional sold on the bid across two buckets.

That’s what panic, forced selling, and systematic de-leveraging look like — not thoughtful fundamental selling.

Now pair that with this:

~27% of tech stocks are oversold on 14D RSI — the 3rd highest reading in the last 3yrs.

Historically, when >20% of tech screens oversold, the NDX has:
•Positive T+5 returns the majority of the time
•Respectable T+30 returns on average

Capitulation → then mean reversion.

So in the last 48 hours we’ve had:
•Extreme sell-on-bid pressure
•One of the biggest intraday QQQ reversals in years
•A huge chunk of tech flashing oversold
•Twitter full of “AI was a bubble” victory laps

That’s not a signal that AI is finished.
It’s a signal that positioning is breaking.

The fundamentals that mattered a few days ago still matter:
•NVDA guiding to $65B next quarter
•Line of sight to $500B in AI infra revenue
•Clouds still sold out
•OpenAI/Anthropic/xAI accelerating, not slowing
•Enterprises just starting the AI adoption curve

Flows can move prices violently.
They don’t rewrite the future.

You can trade the fear, or you can recognize it for what it is:

Capitulation in the tape, not capitulation in the AI thesis.

I know which side Rising Dynasty is on.