Honza Černý Profile picture
Nov 22 13 tweets 3 min read Read on X
1/
People think “the market is fine because regulators see everything.”

But the SEC’s Consolidated Audit Trail (CAT) keeps telling a very different story.

CAT was created under SEC Rule 613 to be a single, accurate record of all equity and options activity in the US – the ultimate surveillance tool.Image
2/
The scale is insane: industry members alone are estimated to send tens of billions of records per trading day into CAT. That’s hundreds of billions of rows every single day.

You can’t run a system like that with sloppy data… and yet that’s exactly what is happening.
3/
Recent CAT “Equities – Industry Aggregate Trade Date Statistics” tables circulating online show a column called “Overall Errors Count” for each trade date.

If you sum those daily errors for roughly one month, you end up with about 1.9 billion erroneous records in equities alone.

Even if that specific export is off by some margin, the order of magnitude matters.
4/
Why?

Because official CAT/SEC documents already acknowledge trade dates with hundreds of millions – and in some cases billions – of reportable errors in equities reporting.

That’s not a conspiracy forum, that’s straight from rulemaking petitions and CAT updates submitted to the SEC.
5/
These “errors” are not typos on a spreadsheet. They include things like:

wrong or missing timestamps

parent/child orders that don’t link

out-of-sequence events

orders that appear executed but don’t match a real fill

routing/ID mismatches

In other words: the basic plumbing of what actually traded, where, and when.
6/
When you have billions of such errors in a surveillance system whose entire purpose is “accurate, complete trade data,” you no longer have clean markets.

You have statistical fog.
And fog is where manipulation thrives.
7/
Now connect this to silver and other precious metals.
We don’t have a public CAT-style table for COMEX silver futures. But we do have something even more telling: a track record of proven manipulation.

In 2020, JPMorgan agreed to pay about $920 million to resolve criminal and civil cases over years of spoofing in precious metals and Treasuries. They admitted to running an unlawful trading scheme.

Other individual traders in gold and silver have been charged and banned for similar behavior.
8/
So we know two things at the same time:
The official surveillance database for US markets is flooded with errors on some days.

Some of the biggest players in precious metals have already been caught manipulating those very markets.

Yet we are told that “price discovery is efficient” and that anyone questioning paper silver prices is just emotional.
9/
Ask yourself:
How reliable is reported short interest if the underlying order data is riddled with errors?

How transparent are dark pools and internalizers when even on-exchange reporting struggles with basic data quality?

How confident can you be that futures positioning reflects real risk – and not layers of synthetic exposure hidden in the noise?
10/
For silver stackers, this isn’t about calling for doom.
It’s about recognizing that paper markets are structurally fragile, and that regulators are permanently playing catch-up with complexity, latency games, and sheer data volume.

Physical silver doesn’t solve every problem in finance.
But it does remove one huge variable: you aren’t trusting a data feed.
11/
So when you see a COMEX slam or a violent intraday move in silver and someone says, “Relax, that’s just supply and demand,” remember:

a surveillance system drowning in errors, and

a history of confirmed spoofing and manipulation in metals.

Maybe the price on your screen isn’t the final word.
Maybe it’s just the current output of a very noisy machine.
12/
That’s why many of us keep stacking physical.
Not because we think the system will vanish tomorrow – but because the structure is clearly sick today.

#CAT #markets #equities #silver
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More from @honzacern1

Nov 21
🚨 THREAD: The World Is Quietly Preparing For a Silver Shock

And almost nobody outside the stacking community sees it coming.
👇

#Silver #Stackers #SilverSqueeze #SilverDemand Image
1️⃣ China’s silver vaults keep bleeding out

SGE/SHFE daily report (Nov 21, 2025):

• SHFE vaults dropped –15,819 kg in a single day
• SGE vaults fell –47,715 kg this week
• Combined weekly drawdown: over 63 tonnes
1.1.
At this pace?
China’s exchange silver hits empty in roughly ~2 months.

This isn’t hype.
This is their own data.
Read 13 tweets
Nov 19
🔥 THREAD: The Silver Clock Is Ticking – And Almost No One Sees It 🔥
This isn’t hype. This isn’t emotion.
It’s arithmetic – and it’s brutal.
1️⃣
China is quietly draining its silver vaults.
If the current pace holds, exchange stocks hit zero in roughly 2 months.

Not a slogan.
Just math from SGE/SHFE reports.Image
Image
2️⃣
Start of the period (late September 2025):

• SHFE vaults: ~1,189,648 kg

Mid-November 2025:

• SHFE vaults: 576,894 kg
Drawdown: –612,754 kg in 46 days
≈ 13 tonnes per day – just from the futures exchange.
3️⃣
Spot side – SGE weekly vaults:

• Late September: 1,216,965 kg
• Early November: 822,420 kg

Drawdown: –394,545 kg
≈ 9 tonnes per day leaving visible inventories.
Read 12 tweets
Nov 18
1/
🥈 Something big is happening with silver (AGAIN).

India, China, the US, Australia – four different stories, one message:

silver is quietly moving from “industrial metal” to strategic asset.

Stackers are front-running a reset most people don’t even see.
2/
Look at India.
Every time global markets wobble, India’s silver imports spike like a heart attack on a chart.

2022 was wild. 2024–25 is back near those extremes.
That’s not normal jewelry demand – that’s a nation vacuuming physical while it’s still cheap. Image
3/
Now zoom to China.

SGE/SHFE vault inventories have been bleeding out while Beijing tightens export controls and licenses on silver.

When the world’s factory starts hoarding metal instead of exporting it, it’s telling you something about the future of supply.
Read 12 tweets
Nov 18
THREAD: China’s Silver Shortage Is Getting Worse — And the Data Just Confirmed It

1/
China’s SGE/SHFE silver vaults just hit another new low.
Not yesterday.
Not last week.
Today. Again.

This is no longer a “trend.”
This is a structural shortage unfolding in real time. Image
2/
Let’s compare the last 48 hours:

Nov 17:
–7,539 kg (–7.5 tons) removed from SHFE
Weekly SGE drop: –47,715 kg (–47.7 tons)

Nov 18:
–5,684 kg (–5.7 tons) removed from SHFE

📉 Total: 13.2 tons gone in 48 hours

That’s not a market.
That’s extraction.
3/
According to Bai Xiaojun, insiders in China confirm

🇨🇳 Chinese import companies are pressuring Western suppliers to deliver physical silver ON SCHEDULE
i.e., no more delays, no excuses

🇨🇳 Domestic refineries are running 24 hours a day

This is what real shortage looks like.
Read 10 tweets
Nov 17
Everyone keeps asking: Why December 31?
Because that’s the day the LBMA can’t hide behind “paper silver” anymore.

Here’s the uncomfortable truth:

1) Year-end is the physical reconciliation window
Every December 31 the LBMA has to match:

physical inventory
client allocations

ETF redemptions

leasing obligations

forward contracts

metal loan rollovers

Most of the year, the system is opaque.
But year-end forces transparency — at least internally.

If the metal isn’t there, it becomes visible on this date.
2) China is draining global silver at a rate the LBMA cannot replace SGE/SHFE withdrawals of 40–50 tons per week are unprecedented.

At this pace, hundreds of tons vanish every month.
Western vaults cannot refill at the same speed.
Refineries are already running near capacity.

ETF outflows are the last safety valve — and even that is thinning out.

By December 31, if the physical gap is too large, the LBMA hits a wall.
3) December = ETF rebalancing + vault audits + settlement pressure

This is when:
SLV must prove physical backing

banks must verify allocated metal

auditors demand documentation

unallocated positions must be justified

COMEX/LBMA spreads tighten

If LBMA vaults can’t show enough metal, the system can’t roll smoothly into 2026.
Read 5 tweets
Nov 17
🧵 Thread: The Silver Tug-of-War Nobody Is Ready For

1️⃣
Japan just detonated a global bomb.
A 2.75% yield on the 20-year JGB is a signal:
the world’s cheap-money era is OVER.

Liquidity is tightening everywhere — and the margin calls are just starting.

Prepare yourselves

2️⃣
So let’s talk #SILVER.

Because what’s coming is a brutal tug-of-war between:
paper manipulation
vs.
real-world physical fundamentals
…and the ending will not be a draw.
3️⃣
On the paper side?
blatant price suppression

leveraged futures

forced selling during liquidity stress

margin calls hitting funds and banks across the board

This can temporarily push the price down, even when demand is exploding.
Read 12 tweets

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