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Lawrence Lepard,
@LawrenceLepard
Nov 22 • 7 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Selling Bitcoin right here is a tragic error. The case for selling is based upon:

1. breaking 50 DMA and potential death cross
2. potential further draw downs
3. FUD surrounding quantum computing hack risk
I will address all three. A thread.
@PrestonPysh @LukeGromen @dotkrueger
Bitcoin is the most asymmetric upside bet based upon the high probability of monetary debasement on the planet. We are very close to the point at which that debasement begins again. (The Big Print) that can be clearly seen in the following chart by Dan Oliver of Myrmikan Capital. As the following chart shows every time the Fed has tried to jump off the exponential monetary growth curve they have been forced into printing. We are there folks.Image
The return profile on Bitcoin is wildly asymmetric and happens quickly and on a few days. If you miss the key days you miss the upside. As Fred and Ben point out. Image
Bitcoin routinely has "God Candles". Pre 2017 they were often 10-25% daily moves in the price. As recently as 2021 there was a 19% one day god candle. In 2024 there was a 10% one day god candle. Sometimes these candles come in succession. So you sell today at $84k and have 2 rapid succession 10% god candles and you are looking at buying back at $101k, will you do it?
The FUD on Quantum is way over done in my opinion. It is years away, and there are solutions. This article does a nice job on that topic.
ten31.xyz/insights/quant…
In my opinion the easy trade to day is to sell gold miners which are up 125% YTD and use the proceeds to buy Bitcoin and MSTR, and that is what I am doing.
@Myrmikan

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More from @LawrenceLepard

Lawrence Lepard,
Jun 13, 2023
The Fed is aiming to avert financial instability while also fighting inflation—predicaments that frequently call for opposite policies. wsj.com/articles/fed-j… via @WSJ
LL: Timiaros: "The economic expansion, the Fed’s credibility and Powell’s legacy are at stake." No shit Sherlock. It is interesting to see the mainstream press acknowledge what we have know for some time. The Fed is trapped like a rat by its horrible policy mistakes.
@NickTimiraos
Read 5 tweets
Lawrence Lepard,
Mar 25, 2023
Credit Bubble Bulletin : Weekly Commentary: The Big Pivot creditbubblebulletin.blogspot.com/2023/03/weekly…
March 20 – Bloomberg (Austin Weinstein and Max Reyes): “The Federal Home Loan Bank System issued $304 billion in debt last week… That’s almost double the $165 billion that liquidity-hungry lenders tapped from the Federal Reserve.
The FHLBs are a Depression-era backstop originally created to boost mortgage lending. The system is known as the ‘lender of next-to-last resort’ — a play on the nickname for the Federal Reserve’s discount window.
Read 4 tweets
Lawrence Lepard,
Feb 18, 2023
Credit Bubble Bulletin : Friday Evening Links creditbubblebulletin.blogspot.com/2023/02/friday…
February 14 – Reuters (Jamie McGeever): “The explanation for the whoosh higher in risk assets this year may be as simple as it is surprising: eye-popping liquidity from central banks. Largely thanks to the Bank of Japan hoovering up domestic government bonds to
keep its 'yield curve control' policy intact, and stimulus from the People's Bank of China (PBOC), aggregate liquidity from the official sector has surged in recent months. Apollo Global Management's Torsten Slok reckons the BOJ bought $291 billion of bonds in January - a monthly
Read 4 tweets
Lawrence Lepard,
Dec 10, 2022
This doesn't sound good:
December 3 – New York Times (Alan Rappeport): “Developing nations are facing a catastrophic debt crisis in the coming months as rapid inflation, slowing growth, rising interest rates and a strengthening dollar coalesce into a perfect storm
that could set off a wave of messy defaults and inflict economic pain on the world’s most vulnerable people. Poor countries owe, by some calculations, as much as $200 billion to wealthy nations, multilateral development banks and private creditors. Rising interest rates
have increased the value of the dollar, making it harder for foreign borrowers with debt denominated in U.S. currency to repay their loans. Defaulting on a huge swath of loans would send borrowing costs for vulnerable nations even higher and could spawn financial crises…”
Read 8 tweets
Lawrence Lepard,
Dec 10, 2022
LL: fascinating stuff. 2007?
Credit Bubble Bulletin : Weekly Commentary: Blackstone, Inflection Points ... creditbubblebulletin.blogspot.com/2022/12/weekly…
A brief jaunt down memory lane. Recall that two Bear Stearns Credit funds blew up in June 2007, marking the beginning to the end of the mortgage finance Bubble. As buyers of the riskier tranches of high-risk mortgage derivatives, their demise knocked out
the marginal source of demand for riskier mortgage Credit. Yet the subprime eruption was not immediately contractionary. Instead, sinking Treasury and bond yields spurred a big rally in conventional mortgage securities prices.
Read 7 tweets
Lawrence Lepard,
Dec 8, 2022
California finance department spokesperson explains how state went from record budget surplus to possible $25B deficit capradio.org/articles/2022/…
@LukeGromen "They are for one reason: We have a very progressive tax system in California, and our fortunes are very much tied to the financial markets as well.
If you look at all of the personal income tax returns that were filed in California in the year 2020, just 1% of the total number of income tax returns that were filed were responsible for more than 49% of all of the personal income tax that was paid in that year."
Read 4 tweets

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