The Fed is aiming to avert financial instability while also fighting inflation—predicaments that frequently call for opposite policies. wsj.com/articles/fed-j… via @WSJ LL: Timiaros: "The economic expansion, the Fed’s credibility and Powell’s legacy are at stake." No shit Sherlock. It is interesting to see the mainstream press acknowledge what we have know for some time. The Fed is trapped like a rat by its horrible policy mistakes.

Credit Bubble Bulletin : Weekly Commentary: The Big Pivot creditbubblebulletin.blogspot.com/2023/03/weekly… March 20 – Bloomberg (Austin Weinstein and Max Reyes): “The Federal Home Loan Bank System issued $304 billion in debt last week… That’s almost double the $165 billion that liquidity-hungry lenders tapped from the Federal Reserve.

Credit Bubble Bulletin : Friday Evening Links creditbubblebulletin.blogspot.com/2023/02/friday… February 14 – Reuters (Jamie McGeever): “The explanation for the whoosh higher in risk assets this year may be as simple as it is surprising: eye-popping liquidity from central banks. Largely thanks to the Bank of Japan hoovering up domestic government bonds to

This doesn't sound good:
December 3 – New York Times (Alan Rappeport): “Developing nations are facing a catastrophic debt crisis in the coming months as rapid inflation, slowing growth, rising interest rates and a strengthening dollar coalesce into a perfect storm that could set off a wave of messy defaults and inflict economic pain on the world’s most vulnerable people. Poor countries owe, by some calculations, as much as $200 billion to wealthy nations, multilateral development banks and private creditors. Rising interest rates

LL: fascinating stuff. 2007?
Credit Bubble Bulletin : Weekly Commentary: Blackstone, Inflection Points ... creditbubblebulletin.blogspot.com/2022/12/weekly… A brief jaunt down memory lane. Recall that two Bear Stearns Credit funds blew up in June 2007, marking the beginning to the end of the mortgage finance Bubble. As buyers of the riskier tranches of high-risk mortgage derivatives, their demise knocked out

California finance department spokesperson explains how state went from record budget surplus to possible $25B deficit capradio.org/articles/2022/… @LukeGromen "They are for one reason: We have a very progressive tax system in California, and our fortunes are very much tied to the financial markets as well.

Lots of questions and DM's.
Lepard view on Grayscale and GBTC
Spoiler alert: I own it. I have been buying more. It is still less than 5% of my BTC holdings in case I am wrong. Self sovereign key ownership is a must. And top priority. I believe they have the coins. it is NYState regulated, and it is a Trust. It is audited. This is not a fly by night FTX situation. Lawyers like Davis Polk are involved. For them not to have the coins would be a legal violation. eg: fraud would be required.

Fascinating back story to the Nixon gold default in August 1971. thanks for the shove @LukeGromen Take aways. For Nixon is was all about politics and how to win in 1972. He didn't appreciate or care about the inflation implications or the moral implications. The Author is a statist and Keynesian. To wit: "In any event, the debate over the gold standard was becoming moot

Bitcoin usage thread. OK, so i was just a HODL person until recently. Great store of value. Why would I ever want to sell or dispose of #BTC ? Then i read @gladstein 's book and i interacted with @JeffBooth and they made the point that if we want to drive widespread adoption we had to promote usage. Good point. Alex's book has numerous real life examples of how the Muun wallet is being used all over the world. So, i went to my Apple apps store and downloaded a free copy. Sent some coin over and began making Lightning payments..

LL: serious issues in China credit land.
Credit Bubble Bulletin : Weekly Commentary: Global Crisis Dynamics Update creditbubblebulletin.blogspot.com/2022/07/weekly… July 15 – Reuters (Marc Jones): “Traditional debt crisis signs of crashing currencies, 1,000 bps bond spreads and burned FX reserves point to a record number of developing nations now in trouble. Lebanon, Sri Lanka, Russia, Suriname and Zambia are already in default,

A Good Time for This as a Reminder. h/t Dave Kranzler. @InvResDynamics Francisco's Money Speech:

“Money is the barometer of a society’s virtue. When you see that trading is done, not by consent, but by compulsion–when you see that in order to produce, you need to obtain permission from men who produce nothing–when you see that money is flowing to those who deal, not in goods, but in favours–when you see that men get richer by graft and by pull than by work, and your laws don’t protect you against them, but protect them against you–when you

Credit Bubble Bulletin : Weekly Commentary: Historic Q1 2022 creditbubblebulletin.blogspot.com/2022/04/weekly… “Inflation Hits a New 40-year High.” “Bond Market Suffers Worst Quarter in Decades.” “Commodities Finish Best Quarter in 32 Years.” Greatest divergence between financial assets and Hard Assets ever?

Interesting comments by Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman, Security Council, Russia 3/23/22
@imetatronink @TFL1728

"For the past thirty years, Russia has been the target of the same mediocre and primitive game. There is only one explanation—she is the enemy...This means that Russia must be humiliated, limited, shaken, divided and destroyed. How will this resonate in the near future in Europe and in the world as a whole?

Credit Bubble Bulletin : Weekly Commentary: Market Structure in the Crosshairs creditbubblebulletin.blogspot.com/2022/01/weekly… Noland: It was one of those weeks that left an unsettled feeling in the pit of my stomach. A lot of money was lost in the cryptocurrencies and high-flying tech stocks. Before this is over, astonishing amounts of perceived wealth will have vanished into thin air.

Gold pep talk. (i have been getting DM's)
Enduring draw downs like the one we are experiencing now requires mental toughness. BTW this is nothing like 2013-2015 period. When that occurred I realized I had to be in this fight for the long term. Through reading I connected extreme mental toughness to extreme fitness. Researching the two i discovered that the US Navy Seals are the toughest humans on the planet attaining levels of fitness and mental fortitude that are unheard of anywhere else. Investigating further

Credit Bubble Bulletin : Weekly Commentary: Evergrande Moment creditbubblebulletin.blogspot.com/2021/09/weekly… Evergrande epitomizes China’s historic Credit Bubble. It has borrowed and spent lavishly, in what history will surely view as a company that operated at the epicenter of an extraordinary Bubble of asset inflation, speculation and reckless debt-financed mal-investment.

The Fed's Nightmare: The Big One

(not a prediction, just an observation that this outcome has a non-zero chance of occurring, and markets are not always continuous.)

Early one morning news item "x" occurs. Realizing the negative implications the US stock indices are quickly down 4%. Counterintuitively the 10 year yield is up and bonds are sold. The dollar goes screaming higher as people look for liquidity. The Fed open market desk intervenes but is overwhelmed. Soon stocks are down 7% triggering the first circuit breaker 15 minute pause

It's Over. Men lose their senses in heards, but regain them one by one. 40 years of deflation. Done.
In my last quarterly letter I suggested a crack up boom was underway, and it is/was. But a new wrinkle has occurred. The high flying speculative stocks are showing topping patterns. The Chart of ARKK is Exhibit A. Dogge coin is the last remaining bubble fantasy and I expect that to top soon, if it has not already. I was a venture capitalist in 2000 and managed a large portfolio of Dotcom stocks. Today reminds me of March 2000.

LL: Must read by Doug Noland
Credit Bubble Bulletin : Weekly Commentary: Generational Turning Point creditbubblebulletin.blogspot.com/2021/05/weekly… It all points to a major shakeout. An inflation upside surprise could come with momentous ramifications. The bond market would face major instability. Beyond debasement, there would be fears of a destabilizing de-risking/deleveraging dynamic taking hold.

Imagine gold $5,000. (I do). Miner earnings will be up 300-400%. It will be a bull market so multiples will expand too. If multiples just double that gets one 6-8x. Add production growth in some names. This is life changing stuff, likely within 5 years. And that is just Au. Ag is even more extreme. 30:1 implies $167 Ag. So silver miner profits up 600%. This is why the hardest part of this bull market will be sitting tight. Keep the big picture in mind. The macro tail wind makes enduring these pull backs easier.

Behind the scenes look at bond market panic. @lukegromen
March 16 was the day coronavirus brought the financial system to the brink. Few realized how close it came to going over the edge entirely. wsj.com/articles/the-d… via @WSJ This account of what happened on one of the worst days the financial markets have ever seen, from many of the executives, money managers and Wall Street veterans who lived it, shows why the rescue effort was so urgent.