Thread by @OliverStuenkel

1️⃣ El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele is on a roll. At home, he enjoys approval ratings above 80 percent. Abroad, his profile is rising fast. His TikTok following—11 million—is bigger than El Salvador’s population, and much of his content is in English. 👇🧵

2️⃣U.S. right-wing figures see Bukele as an inspiration. After Tucker Carlson and Donald Trump Jr. attended his inauguration, Carlson wrote that Bukele “may have the blueprint for saving the world.” Trump called him “one hell of a president” during his White House visit.

3️⃣Since taking office in 2019, Bukele has turned El Salvador from one of the most dangerous countries in the Americas into one of the safest. In 2024, its homicide rate of 1.9 per 100,000 was lower than the U.S. rate. But his anti-crime strategy is hardly replicable elsewhere.

4️⃣Bukele imposed repeated states of emergency, suspending constitutional rights more than 30 times. Security forces detained tens of thousands—many without criminal records—and sent some to CECOT, the world’s largest prison.

5️⃣Across Latin America, Bukele has admirers. Leaders in Peru, Argentina, Honduras, and Ecuador praise his approach, and visiting CECOT has become a political photo-op. Yet it’s unlikely other governments will fully adopt Bukele-style policies. There are four main reasons why.

6️⃣First, El Salvador’s small size makes its model hard to replicate. With 6.3 million people, it has imprisoned 110,000—1.7% of its population, the highest rate in the world. Brazil would need 3.4 million inmates to match that rate; it already struggles with 830,000.

7️⃣ Second, Salvadoran gangs are far weaker than Brazil’s PCC or Mexico’s cartels. Mexico’s Calderón used a militarized strategy similar to Bukele’s in 2006. Instead of reducing violence, it triggered an escalating conflict that still plagues the country.

8️⃣ Third, Bukele’s crackdown has deeply eroded democracy. He dismantled checks and balances, suspended due process, coerced courts, and oversaw arrests of critics. His reelection violated El Salvador’s constitution. Journalists fled. The model requires authoritarianism.

9️⃣ Finally, predictions of a Bukele-style wave assume rising violence regionwide. But crime has fallen in many countries: Brazil’s homicide rate has dropped since 2017; Colombia, Honduras, Guatemala, and Belize have seen declines since 2015. The region’s trends are not uniform.

🔟 El Salvador’s violence fell before Bukele took office, and evidence suggests he negotiated with gangs. His government also undercounts homicides. Bukele’s brand may appeal to the global right, but no country is likely to copy his model anytime soon.

My piece for Foreign Policy:
foreignpolicy.com/2025/06/19/buk…