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Nick Schifrin

@nickschifrin

Nov 20

I've obtained the the 28-point plan drafted by the Trump Administration to try to end the war in Ukraine, and that is at the center of a pivotal diplomatic visit by @SecArmy. US officials emphasize it's a working document, with edits from both sides.
Highlights:
- References "reliable security guarantees," for Ukraine, and says "It is expected that Russia will not invade neighboring countries"
- Ukraine would have to give up the rest of Donetsk, and that territory would be internationally recognized as Russian, but demilitarized
- The US would then recognize the Donbas, occupied Crimea, and the occupied portions of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, as "de facto Russian"
- NATO would pledge never to admit Ukraine
- "Full amnesty" for "all parties."
- Ukraine's military capped at 600,000
- No NATO troops "stationed" in Ukraine
- US would lift sanctions on Russia "in stages and on a case-by-case basis."
- $100 billion in frozen Russian assets earmarked for Ukrainian reconstruction
- Ukraine would hold elections in 100 days.

Full text:
1. Ukraine's sovereignty will be confirmed.

2. A comprehensive and comprehensive non-aggression agreement will be concluded between Russia, Ukraine and Europe. All ambiguities of the last 30 years will be considered settled.

3. It is expected that Russia will not invade neighbouring countries and NATO will not expand further.

4. A dialogue will be held between Russia and NATO, mediated by the United States, to resolve all security issues and create conditions for de-escalation in order to ensure global security and increase opportunities for cooperation and future economic development.

5. Ukraine will receive reliable security guarantees.

6. The size of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be limited to 600,000 personnel.

7. Ukraine agrees to enshrine in its constitution that it will not join NATO, and NATO agrees to include in its statutes a provision that Ukraine will not be admitted in the future.

8. NATO agrees not to station troops in Ukraine.

9. European fighter jets will be stationed in Poland.

10. US guarantee:

▪ The US will receive compensation for the guarantee.

▪ If Ukraine invades Russia, it will lose the guarantee.

▪ If Russia invades Ukraine, in addition to a decisive coordinated military response, all global sanctions will be reinstated, recognition of the new territory and all other benefits of this deal will be revoked.

▪ If Ukraine launches a missile at Moscow or St. Petersburg without cause, the security guarantee will be deemed invalid.

11. Ukraine is eligible for EU membership and will receive short-term preferential access to the European market while this issue is being considered.

12. A powerful global package of measures to rebuild Ukraine, including but not limited to:

a. The creation of a Ukraine Development Fund to invest in fast-growing industries, including technology, data centres, and artificial intelligence.

b. The United States will cooperate with Ukraine to jointly rebuild, develop, modernise, and operate Ukraine's gas infrastructure, including pipelines and storage facilities.

c. Joint efforts to rehabilitate war-affected areas for the restoration, reconstruction and modernisation of cities and residential areas.

d. Infrastructure development.

e. Extraction of minerals and natural resources.

f. The World Bank will develop a special financing package to accelerate these efforts.

13. Russia will be reintegrated into the global economy:

a. The lifting of sanctions will be discussed and agreed upon in stages and on a case-by-case basis.

b. The United States will enter into a long-term economic cooperation agreement for mutual development in the areas of energy, natural resources, infrastructure, artificial intelligence, data centres, rare earth metal extraction projects in the Arctic, and other mutually beneficial corporate opportunities.

c. Russia will be invited to rejoin the G8.

14. Frozen funds will be used as follows:

$100 billion in frozen Russian assets will be invested in US-led efforts to rebuild and invest in Ukraine. The US will receive 50% of the profits from this venture. Europe will add $100 billion to increase the amount of investment available for Ukraine's reconstruction. Frozen European funds will be unfrozen. The remainder of the frozen Russian funds will be invested in a separate US-Russian investment vehicle that will implement joint projects in specific areas. This fund will be aimed at strengthening relations and increasing common interests to create a strong incentive not to return to conflict.

15. A joint American-Russian working group on security issues will be established to promote and ensure compliance with all provisions of this agreement.

16. Russia will enshrine in law its policy of non-aggression towards Europe and Ukraine.

17. The United States and Russia will agree to extend the validity of treaties on the non-proliferation and control of nuclear weapons, including the START I Treaty.

18. Ukraine agrees to be a non-nuclear state in accordance with the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.

19. The Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant will be launched under the supervision of the IAEA, and the electricity produced will be distributed equally between Russia and Ukraine — 50:50.

20. Both countries undertake to implement educational programmes in schools and society aimed at promoting understanding and tolerance of different cultures and eliminating racism and prejudice:

a. Ukraine will adopt EU rules on religious tolerance and the protection of linguistic minorities.

b. Both countries will agree to abolish all discriminatory measures and guarantee the rights of Ukrainian and Russian media and education.

c. All Nazi ideology and activities must be rejected and prohibited.

21. Territories:

a. Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk will be recognised as de facto Russian, including by the United States.

b. Kherson and Zaporizhzhia will be frozen along the line of contact, which will mean de facto recognition along the line of contact.

c. Russia will relinquish other agreed territories it controls outside the five regions.

d. Ukrainian forces will withdraw from the part of Donetsk Oblast that they currently control, and this withdrawal zone will be considered a neutral demilitarised buffer zone, internationally recognised as territory belonging to the Russian Federation. Russian forces will not enter this demilitarised zone.

22. After agreeing on future territorial arrangements, both the Russian Federation and Ukraine undertake not to change these arrangements by force. Any security guarantees will not apply in the event of a breach of this commitment.

23. Russia will not prevent Ukraine from using the Dnieper River for commercial activities, and agreements will be reached on the free transport of grain across the Black Sea.

24. A humanitarian committee will be established to resolve outstanding issues:

a. All remaining prisoners and bodies will be exchanged on an ‘all for all’ basis.

b. All civilian detainees and hostages will be returned, including children.

c. A family reunification programme will be implemented.

d. Measures will be taken to alleviate the suffering of the victims of the conflict.

25. Ukraine will hold elections in 100 days.

26. All parties involved in this conflict will receive full amnesty for their actions during the war and agree not to make any claims or consider any complaints in the future.

27. This agreement will be legally binding. Its implementation will be monitored and guaranteed by the Peace Council, headed by President Donald J. Trump. Sanctions will be imposed for violations.

28. Once all parties agree to this memorandum, the ceasefire will take effect immediately after both sides retreat to agreed points to begin implementation of the agreement.

Statement by @PressSec: "As the Trump Administration has clearly said, any deal must provide full security guarantees and deterrence for Ukraine, Europe, and Russia to ensure the end of the war, in addition to financial opportunities for Ukraine to rebuild, and for Russia to rejoin the global economy, to benefit the people in both countries. This plan was crafted to reflect the realities of the situation, after 5 years of a devastating war, to find the best win-win scenario, where both parties gain more than they must give."

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Nick Schifrin

@nickschifrin

Mar 15

For 80 years, the United States government has believed government funded information distributed to people whose governments try to stifle that information--or punish those who obtain it--has been in the national interest.

This began with @VOA, which beamed its first broadcast into the Soviet Union in 1942. It expanded with @RFERL in the 1950s, each of which were initially run by CIA. The goal: send facts over the Iron Curtain to try and win the Cold War.

In the 1980s, the geography expanded: Radio Marti (today the Office of Cuba Broadcasting) reached into Communist Cuba, and @RadioFreeAsia began in the 1990s to reach Asian countries with poor media environments. After 9/11, it expanded to Arabic language Middle East Broadcasting Network, which includes @alhurranews.

And when the information started being blocked by government suppression technology, the US government created the @OpenTechFund, which funded software that allowed dissidents from Iran to China to Venezuela to communicate (@signalapp) and get around firewalls, and Frontline Media Fund, a brand-new incubator designed to create new content distribution, especially in Mandarin

That effort is beginning to end today.

All staff employees of @VOA and OCB (federal networks) have been placed on leave. Which means, effectively, they will cease to operate.

Separately, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty; Radio Free Asia; Middle East Broadcasting Networks; Open Technology Fund; and Frontline Media Fund--"grantees" --all had their federal funding ended.

Read 4 tweets

Nick Schifrin

@nickschifrin

Dec 4, 2024

BREAKING: Chinese hackers known as Salt Typhoon compromised at least 8 telecommunications companies, deputy national security advisor @AnneNeuberger announced on a call with reporters, and “we do not believe any have fully removed the Chinese from their networks... Until they address their gaps, the Chinese will maintain their access.”

As the FBI has detailed, there are three baskets of victims: a wide-swath of Americans whose phone metadata was stolen; a very small group of individuals whose audio calls and text messages were specifically targeted and successfully intercepted (and all of whom have been notified); and the portal that law enforcement uses to submit court orders to telecommunications internet service providers.

A senior administration official would not say how many Americans’ metadata was stolen, but acknowledged it was “a large number of individuals,” although “not every cell phone in the country.”

Read 5 tweets

Nick Schifrin

@nickschifrin

Nov 18, 2024

Highlights of our @newshour interview with @JakeSullivan46:

Q: Two US officials confirm the administration gave Ukraine authorization to use ATACMS in Russia. Why?

A: "We don't have anything to announce or confirm on that today. So those remain unconfirmed reports. One thing I would point out, though, for context, is that Russia has just engaged in a massive escalation in this war. They have brought in a foreign army, North Korea, North Korean troops to the front lines of the battle. And that represents a sea change in the nature of this conflict."

Q: Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said if there were official confirmation, it would mean direct involvement of the US in the war--

A: "If the U.S. were to authorize the use of any weapon system, including this weapon system, it wouldn't mean direct U.S. participation in the war. It would mean a continuation of the policy we've had since the war began, which is that we supply the means to Ukraine to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity, and they fight the war."

Q: In and around Kursk, there are tens of thousands of troops massing to try and retake territory seized by Ukraine. There are Russian command and control sites. There are air defense and rocket launchers. Are those good ATACMS targets?

A: "I will obviously defer to the Ukrainians about how they choose to prosecute the war... From our perspective right now, the major escalation that we've seen is not about a particular geography or about a particular part of the front. It's about the fact that Russia has gone to another country from another part of the world... That is a change, a significant change, a change that, in fact, we warned the Russians about before they did it and said if they did it, we would respond. And of course we will respond."

Read 13 tweets

Nick Schifrin

@nickschifrin

Nov 8, 2024

BREAKING from @TheJusticeDept: Attorney General Merrick Garland: “The Justice Department has charged an asset of the Iranian regime who was tasked by the regime to direct a network of criminal associates to further Iran’s assassination plots against its targets, including President-elect Donald Trump.”

From the complaint:
"According to SHAKERI, in approximately mid-to-late September 2024, IRGC Official-I asked SHAKERI to put aside his other efforts on behalf of the IRGC and focus on surveilling, and, ultimately, assassinating, former President of the United States, Donald J. Trump ("Victim-4" herein) ...

"According to SHAKERI, during his meeting with IRGC Official-I on or about October 7, 2024, IRGC Official-I directed SHAKERI to provide a plan within seven days to kill Victim-4. If SHAKERI was unable to put forth a plan within that timeframe, IRGC Official-I continued, the IRGC would pause its plan to kill Victim-4 until after the U.S. Presidential elections, because IRGC Official-I assessed that Victim-4 would lose the election and, afterward, it would be easier to assassinate Victim-4."

Read 4 tweets

Nick Schifrin

@nickschifrin

Aug 16, 2024

NEW: Senior Administration official briefing reporters says an Iranian strike on Israel could bring "cataclysmic consequences":

"A major military attack--there's nothing that has happened that would justify such an act. We are prepared to counter, and defend Israel, should that come. But we would also encourage the Iranians--and I know many are--not to move down that road, because the consequences could be quite cataclysmic, particularly, for Iran."

On ceasefire talks, the official expressed guarded optimism that a deal can be made next week: "This process... is now in the end game"; “A deal that is ready to be closed"; “The package is basically there.”

Official engaged on the main gaps:
- On Israel's control of the Philadelphi corridor: "That issue is moving the right way."
- On screening of Palestinian movement from south to north: "If anyone is carrying arms from south to north, that would be a violation."
- Working groups will engage on the lists of which Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners will be released, and in what sequence
"What is on the table now basically bridges every gap."

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