Honza Černý Profile picture
Nov 25 15 tweets 2 min read Read on X
🚨🧵 SLV just added 9,000,000 shares in ONE day.
That’s not “paper.” That’s PHYSICAL SILVER getting locked up.

And the detail everyone missed?
Price didn’t dump… it rallied. 👀
1️⃣
9M new SLV shares = new metal has to show up.
Rough math: ~0.90 oz per share (after fees).

That’s ~8.17 million oz ≈ 254 metric tons of silver.
2️⃣
Think about what that means:
254 tons moved into ETF custody and becomes encumbered by the trust structure.

➡️ Free float goes DOWN.
3️⃣
Free float = the “available” pool that can actually move, deliver, and settle stress.

When ETFs absorb metal, the market loses circulating liquidity.

That’s how squeezes start:
Not with headlines… with inventory getting sticky.
4️⃣
Now the really interesting part:
You’ll often notice a pattern:
✅ Big SLV share creations
↘️ and silver price falling (or getting capped)

Because creations can appear during selling/hedging flows.
5️⃣
But yesterday?

No cap. No dump. No rug.

Silver went UP anyway.
That’s a tell.
6️⃣
If the market can absorb 254 tons being locked and still rise, it suggests:

🔥 The underlying bid is stronger than the usual “pressure valve.”
🔥 Physical tightness is creeping into the price mechanism.
7️⃣

They had to bring in a truckload of metal…
…and the market said:

“Cool. We’ll take that too.” 😈
8️⃣
So what does it likely signal?

✅ Physical demand is real, persistent
✅ Wholesale bars are being pulled into “non-floating” hands
✅ The paper market is having a harder time dominating the tape
9️⃣
And zoom out: China has been draining visible inventories hard (SGE/SHFE).

Now the West is also locking metal into ETFs.
That’s a two-front drain.
1⃣0️⃣
If this keeps happening, watch what breaks first:
📌 spot premiums
📌 futures spreads
📌 delivery stress / tightness signals
📌 “Where’s the metal coming from?” questions
1⃣1️⃣
Stacker takeaway:
You don’t need to “time the top.”
You need to own the metal before the scramble.

Because when free float shrinks, price doesn’t move smoothly…
It jumps.
1⃣2️⃣
This isn’t hype.

It’s mechanics.

254 tons got tied up… and price STILL climbed.

That’s not normal behavior in a loose market.
That’s what a tightening market looks like. ⏳🪙

#Silver #SLV #PhysicalSilver #SilverSqueeze #Stackers
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More from @honzacern1

Nov 25
THREAD — Credit cracks in the AI boom (and why stackers should watch this)

1/ Credit markets are flashing early signs of stress in the AI build-out. No headlines — the signals are in CDS, bond spreads, and inventories. Image
2/ Oracle’s 5-year CDS has surged in recent weeks, more than doubling from earlier levels.

This does not mean Oracle is near default — it means the market is demanding a higher premium to hold its debt as leverage rises.
3/ Analysts have warned that Oracle’s AI expansion is heavily debt-funded and free cash flow may stay under pressure.

Higher CDS = higher perceived counterparty risk.
Read 9 tweets
Nov 25
🧵 Tucker Carlson enters precious metals… and stackers should pay attention

1/ Tucker Carlson just launched a precious-metals business (gold, silver, platinum).
Not an ad. Not a sponsor. A company. Image
Image
2/ Whether you like him or not, this matters because it’s a distribution event:

A massive media platform + physical metals = new demand pipeline.
3/ His framing: trust in central banks is fading, fiat is weakening, and financial stability is eroding.

That message resonates with millions right now.
Read 10 tweets
Nov 24
🧵 1/
The global silver market just flashed another major warning signal — and this time it’s coming from all three pillars of the physical system:

🇬🇧 London
🇺🇸 COMEX
🇨🇳 Shanghai

All are reporting simultaneous drawdowns.
That almost never happens… unless something big is brewing.Image
2/
📉 London free float has fallen to just 170.6M oz— down 3.8% in a single week.

That’s the metal not locked in ETFs and theoretically available to the market.

Only 20.2%of London’s silver is now “free.”
The remaining 79.8% is tied up inside ETFs.

When the world’s biggest hub loses liquidity, history tells you one thing:

A repricing event is getting closer.
3/
📉 COMEX inventories down 1.9% this week
📉 (-275,000 oz)

COMEX has been losing metal for months.
Registered stocks are thin, eligible is migrating into private hands, and deliveries are tiny.

The US paper market is becoming a showroom with less and less product in the back.
Read 11 tweets
Nov 24
1/
Something big is happening in silver – and almost nobody in the West is paying attention.
Turkey and China just sent the loudest signal yet that physical silver is getting tight.

Thanks to @jameshenryand and @oriental_ghost Image
Image
2/
Start with Turkey.
October 2025 was their 2nd largest silver import month ever:
👉 182.2 tonnes
👉 ≈ 5.86 million oz in one month
In a “small” market like silver, that’s not a rounding error – that’s a cannon blast.
3/
To put it in perspective:
🌍 Global mine supply is ~850M oz/year.
One single country just took 0.7% of annual mine supply in one month.

That’s about 2.5 days of total world mine production – sucked into Turkey alone.
Read 15 tweets
Nov 23
1/
🚨 Something big is happening in London silver.
In the first 3 weeks of November, silver ETFs/ETCs added +496 metric tons (~16M oz).
At the same time, LBMA “free float” went down.

That’s not just chart noise – that’s structural pressure on physical. 👇

Thanks to @mypreciousilverImage
2/
What the chart shows:
Blue + green bars = silver held in ETFs/ETCs (SLV, BlackRock, many smaller funds).

Orange = LBMA “free float” – bars not already tied up in ETFs, long-term holdings or allocated accounts.

When ETFs grow, they suck metal out of that orange bar.
3/
November so far:
▶️ +496 t into ETFs/ETCs
▶️ +194 t just in the last week
▶️ Most of that from inflows into BlackRock + SLV on behalf of London/NY.

But here’s the punchline ⬇️
It’s not only SLV doing the damage…
Read 13 tweets
Nov 22
1/
People think “the market is fine because regulators see everything.”

But the SEC’s Consolidated Audit Trail (CAT) keeps telling a very different story.

CAT was created under SEC Rule 613 to be a single, accurate record of all equity and options activity in the US – the ultimate surveillance tool.Image
2/
The scale is insane: industry members alone are estimated to send tens of billions of records per trading day into CAT. That’s hundreds of billions of rows every single day.

You can’t run a system like that with sloppy data… and yet that’s exactly what is happening.
3/
Recent CAT “Equities – Industry Aggregate Trade Date Statistics” tables circulating online show a column called “Overall Errors Count” for each trade date.

If you sum those daily errors for roughly one month, you end up with about 1.9 billion erroneous records in equities alone.

Even if that specific export is off by some margin, the order of magnitude matters.
Read 13 tweets

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