1/ Igor 'Strelkov' Girkin is sceptical of "the mega-crook Donald and his cronies" and is confident there won't be a peace deal soon. In a fresh missive from prison, he draws attention to the Zaporizhzhia front, but says that Russia is unable to exploit successes there. ⬇️ 
2/ Replying to an earlier letter from a friend, he comments:
"Now we have yet another “sweet expectation of a quick and inevitable deal” (that is, a “compromise”), inspired by the statements of the mega-crook Donald and his cronies."
"Now we have yet another “sweet expectation of a quick and inevitable deal” (that is, a “compromise”), inspired by the statements of the mega-crook Donald and his cronies."
3/ "Naturally, my assessment of the situation hasn't changed at all: I'm confident there won't be a fixed deal, as we failed to achieve successes during the entire summer-fall campaign that went beyond the operational (at most, in isolated areas, but mostly beyond tactical).
4/ "The repeated, "strained" liberation of Kupiansk (or rather, its ruins) after six months of brutal fighting doesn't even begin to qualify as a "great victory," no matter how much Our National Leader puffs himself out about it.
5/ "Nor will the capture of Pokrovsk (expected soon) be one, or even the "bonus" of Vovchansk, Siversk, and Liman.
6/ "All these secondary settlements are merely more tactical fortifications for the enemy, and by taking them, we won't achieve the main thing—the defeat and disintegration of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, or even the collapse of the Ukrainian defences along large sections…
7/ …of the front.
"Yes, the capture of Huliaipole [in Zaporizhzhia region] (and, even more so, Orikhiv) by our troops would be a major operational success. But only if we had sufficient reserves to exploit this success.
"Yes, the capture of Huliaipole [in Zaporizhzhia region] (and, even more so, Orikhiv) by our troops would be a major operational success. But only if we had sufficient reserves to exploit this success.
8/ "That is, to subsequently advance rapidly into the depths of the enemy's defences, completely break through them, and gain operational space, thereby reverting the war to a "maneuverable" one from the current trench warfare.
9/ "This would force the Ukrainians to hastily and without a fight abandon their prepared defensive lines, engage us in counter-attacks on unfavorable terms, and surrender large tracts of land and intact cities without a fight, just to preserve the main centres (Dnipro,…
10/ …Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, etc.). But such breakthroughs require large, combat-ready reserves "right here, at hand," ready and capable of advancing from the depths very quickly (otherwise they'll be routed en route) and immediately…
11/ …(otherwise they'll be routed at the starting point) beginning the mission of finishing off and encircling retreating enemy units, capturing and securing the most important settlements, industrial and logistics hubs, and so on.
12/ "The question arises: "Do we have such reserves now?" I don't have enough information to answer this question, but I still suspect it's unlikely.
13/ "And months of heavy offensive fighting could not help but impact the offensive capabilities of the units and formations leading the offensive.
14/ "I suspect (I'd love to be wrong) that if the Ukrainian Armed Forces' frontline actually begins to collapse on an operational and strategic scale, this will not spark enthusiasm, but rather confusion among our military and military-political leadership, …
15/ …as there will be so many available targets that one's eyes will run wild, and there will be nothing with which to take them and secure them (if not all, then at least many) until the enemy stabilises the situation."
16/ Girkin argues that the ongoing and extremely bloody effort to advance in the east leads to multiple dead ends for the Russian offensive, making it a waste of resources compared to a push in the south to capture the cities on the Dnipro:
17/ "As for the "promising directions", while I agree with the Huliaipole direction, [in] the Siversk direction: a breakthrough/collapse of the front near Siversk and its capture leads our troops:
18/ "a) in the northwest - to the confluence of the Torets and Siversky Donets rivers (a logical dead end that can only be overcome by taking Izium - and even then not from this direction, but by an attack from the north - from the side of Kupiansk and Balakliia);
19/ "b) in the west - straight to the fortified Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration itself, which the enemy will certainly have time to occupy with troops and the assault on which can be conditionally called "an assault on Pokrovsk to the tenth power"…
20/ …(in terms of the necessary forces, resources and losses).
And in the southwestern (from Siversk) direction - Bakhmut and Chasiv Yar, already occupied by our troops.
And in the southwestern (from Siversk) direction - Bakhmut and Chasiv Yar, already occupied by our troops.
21/ "To the north is Liman (another backwater, which, by the way, has now also become a battlefield—from there, our troops are also slowly and arduously pushing out the defending units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces).
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