Ron Butler Profile picture
Nov 28 6 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Brampton House Prices Down 31% From Peak: Will It Go Lower? Why Did It Happen?

The TRREB system says Brampton house prices have fallen 31% from Feb 2022 to October 2025

$1.346M to $934K

That's a shit ton of losses, likely another 10% to 15% more to go

WTF Happened?

2/
Power Of Sales Happened

Lenders are taking alot of homes from Borrowers who cannot make mortgage payments & those homes need to be sold FAST

Why so fast?

Because lenders, half of them Private or Alternative Lenders (not banks) need the money back

And don't have a choice

3/
Once you are in the process of Court Ordered Power of Sale proceedings, the rule is you sell it, no changing your mind & rent for a year: the lender must sell

And most Lenders also realize the prices will NOT recover in 2026: so just SELL

Brampton = Lots of Power of Sales

4/
And that means a death spiral for prices

Every lower sale creates a Comparable that drops the whole region down & down

Why is it happening?

- Student Rentals / Rooming Houses Gone Wrong

- Fake Income documents for mortgages

Which creates an over leveraged disaster

5/
As 400K Foreign Students & 250K Temporary Foreign Workers poured into Ontario in 2022 - 2023 the need for accommodation exploded & because many of the newcomers were from India, Community ties brought them to Brampton

Massive Gowth of illegal Rooming Houses & Student Housing

6/
Ultra profitable: 3200 sqft Single Family with 15 people X $800 = $12K a month

And Fake Income Documents help get the mortgage

Students down 90% = Total Bust

More Power of Sales to come in 2026 means another 10% to 15% of price reductions

Yeah, some 50% loss disasters

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More from @ronmortgageguy

Nov 26
New Home Construction Collapses In GTA: Very Simple Reason

If every New Construction Home on offer is substantially more expensive than similar Resale Homes so who the hell is buying the New Construction Home

Not just a bit more expensive: 10%, 15% or 20% more expensive

2/
And not just the GTA, all across Ontario

Who is going to pay $1075 a sqft for a Pre-construction Condo if there is massive supply of almost new Resale Condos at $900 a sqft & if you just want until 2026 it's $850 a sqft

And that's just 416

Let's check out other cities

3/
In Kitchener some folks paid $1000 a sqft Pre-construction for Condos by a local Developer

Currently lots of similar resale Condos at $550 a sqft

Can you spell SCREWED?

There are just no new housing projects starting in Ontario (Thunder Bay excepted but who cares)

4/
Read 6 tweets
Nov 21
Ontario Real Estate Market Gets Better Next Year? NOPE Time For A History Lesson

I was around for the last Ontario RE Bubble

History doesn't really repeat itself & nothing is ever a perfect duplicate

But... Similarities are startling

1990 the raging Ontario Market STOPPED

2/
House prices fell & kept falling for years 1996 is generally agreed as the year prices stopped falling

The Ontario Real Estate Market peaked in February 2022

Apply the same calculations: recovery begins 2028

NOT 2026

Let's consider the key factors that continue to drag RE

3/
- The absence of Real Estate Investors: Mom & Pop amateur landlord Rental Buyers are an extinct species in Ontario (please don't talk about Tri-plex opportunities in Russell ON)

- Move Up Buyers are very limited: the value of the existing home is way off peak

4/
Read 6 tweets
Oct 20
Is The Certainty Of Property Ownership In Danger In British Columbia? MAYBE

The recent BC Cowitchan Band Court Settlement may have turned over ownership of part of Richmond BC to the Aboriginal Band

Is it a done deal? Will people lose their homes? Because it's possible

2/
I am not digging into the Politics on this one although there a lot Politics.

Not going to go on a rant about judges although its obviously a problem

But last week City Of Richmond said that Homeowners may have a problem with Title

And that's HUGE

Land title is Gravity

3/
I am serious, there are Laws of Physics that govern the Universe

But the Law of Land Titles governs everything about Property

Without the certainty of Land Titles EVERYTHING about Real Estate breaks down completely

It's really the biggest thing there is in Real Estate

4/
Read 6 tweets
Oct 16
Will Ontario House Prices Keep Going DOWN This Year? YES And What About Next Year? Likely YES

Lot's of good private technical analysis being done on this question lately that never gets to the public

I had a chance to review one report & its pretty damn alarming

2/
Worst case outcome was ANOTHER 2O% DROP from today's prices

Since average Ontario price is already down 25% from the March 2022 all time high the new number would be a wild 45% decline

This analysis used some fairly dark assumptions but none of the key inputs were outliers

3/
Here are the components:

- No Useful Trade Deal achieved in 2026
- Unemployment in Ontario climbs past 10%
- Per Capita Recession accelerates
- Bank of Canada keeps cutting: another 75 bps
- But Bond Yields DON'T fall in lock step & Fixed Mortgage Rates dont go below 3.30%

4/
Read 6 tweets
Sep 11
Mortgage Rates Headed Down: What's The Best Move?

Canada Bond Yields have dropped: 5 - Yr Yields more than 6% down in just a week: 3 - Yr Yields down over 8% on the month

And Mortgage Rates have come down: Scotia touched off a Rate War on 3 - yr Fixed 2 weeks ago

2/
With extremely aggressive 3 - Yr Pricing: 3.69% on CMHC Low Down Payment Purchases & 3.99% on every other kind of 3 - Yr Mortgage

Other banks quickly followed suit although a bit reluctantly, this time of year doesn't typically have the aggressive rate wars of Spring Markets

3/
Why are Bond Yields falling? Because the Trading community believes Bank of Canada & US Fed cuts are guaranteed

And there are signs that Inflation is NOT surging today

The general belief that North America & Canada in particular will be in Recession is taking hold

4/
Read 6 tweets
Sep 8
Fixed Mortgage Rate Or Variable Mortgage Rate? The Debate Goes Red Hot Today

As Canada accepts the idea our economy really is tanking & the Bank of Canada must cut rates this year the eternal question of Fixed or Variable is front & centre

What's the answer?

2/
Some of it is situational

If people are positive they will sell there house in a finite time horizon like 12 - 18 months take Variable

Guaranteed to only be a 3 - Month Interest penalty & on a short term basis 100% sure the rate will go down at least 50 BPS

Easy call

3/
If people are positive there will be no change in their home ownership in the next 5 years there is a decision to make

The BoC will cut a minimum of 50 BPS this year & if the economy is bad enough another 50 BPS or 75 BPS in cuts can happen

Yeah, 125 BPS of cuts is possible

3/
Read 7 tweets

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