Brampton House Prices Down 31% From Peak: Will It Go Lower? Why Did It Happen?
The TRREB system says Brampton house prices have fallen 31% from Feb 2022 to October 2025
$1.346M to $934K
That's a shit ton of losses, likely another 10% to 15% more to go
WTF Happened?
2/
Power Of Sales Happened
Lenders are taking alot of homes from Borrowers who cannot make mortgage payments & those homes need to be sold FAST
Why so fast?
Because lenders, half of them Private or Alternative Lenders (not banks) need the money back
And don't have a choice
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Once you are in the process of Court Ordered Power of Sale proceedings, the rule is you sell it, no changing your mind & rent for a year: the lender must sell
And most Lenders also realize the prices will NOT recover in 2026: so just SELL
Brampton = Lots of Power of Sales
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And that means a death spiral for prices
Every lower sale creates a Comparable that drops the whole region down & down
Why is it happening?
- Student Rentals / Rooming Houses Gone Wrong
- Fake Income documents for mortgages
Which creates an over leveraged disaster
5/
As 400K Foreign Students & 250K Temporary Foreign Workers poured into Ontario in 2022 - 2023 the need for accommodation exploded & because many of the newcomers were from India, Community ties brought them to Brampton
Massive Gowth of illegal Rooming Houses & Student Housing
6/
Ultra profitable: 3200 sqft Single Family with 15 people X $800 = $12K a month
And Fake Income Documents help get the mortgage
Students down 90% = Total Bust
More Power of Sales to come in 2026 means another 10% to 15% of price reductions
Yeah, some 50% loss disasters
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New Home Construction Collapses In GTA: Very Simple Reason
If every New Construction Home on offer is substantially more expensive than similar Resale Homes so who the hell is buying the New Construction Home
Not just a bit more expensive: 10%, 15% or 20% more expensive
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And not just the GTA, all across Ontario
Who is going to pay $1075 a sqft for a Pre-construction Condo if there is massive supply of almost new Resale Condos at $900 a sqft & if you just want until 2026 it's $850 a sqft
And that's just 416
Let's check out other cities
3/
In Kitchener some folks paid $1000 a sqft Pre-construction for Condos by a local Developer
Currently lots of similar resale Condos at $550 a sqft
Can you spell SCREWED?
There are just no new housing projects starting in Ontario (Thunder Bay excepted but who cares)
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Ontario Real Estate Market Gets Better Next Year? NOPE Time For A History Lesson
I was around for the last Ontario RE Bubble
History doesn't really repeat itself & nothing is ever a perfect duplicate
But... Similarities are startling
1990 the raging Ontario Market STOPPED
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House prices fell & kept falling for years 1996 is generally agreed as the year prices stopped falling
The Ontario Real Estate Market peaked in February 2022
Apply the same calculations: recovery begins 2028
NOT 2026
Let's consider the key factors that continue to drag RE
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- The absence of Real Estate Investors: Mom & Pop amateur landlord Rental Buyers are an extinct species in Ontario (please don't talk about Tri-plex opportunities in Russell ON)
- Move Up Buyers are very limited: the value of the existing home is way off peak
4/
Will Ontario House Prices Keep Going DOWN This Year? YES And What About Next Year? Likely YES
Lot's of good private technical analysis being done on this question lately that never gets to the public
I had a chance to review one report & its pretty damn alarming
2/
Worst case outcome was ANOTHER 2O% DROP from today's prices
Since average Ontario price is already down 25% from the March 2022 all time high the new number would be a wild 45% decline
This analysis used some fairly dark assumptions but none of the key inputs were outliers
3/
Here are the components:
- No Useful Trade Deal achieved in 2026
- Unemployment in Ontario climbs past 10%
- Per Capita Recession accelerates
- Bank of Canada keeps cutting: another 75 bps
- But Bond Yields DON'T fall in lock step & Fixed Mortgage Rates dont go below 3.30%
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Fixed Mortgage Rate Or Variable Mortgage Rate? The Debate Goes Red Hot Today
As Canada accepts the idea our economy really is tanking & the Bank of Canada must cut rates this year the eternal question of Fixed or Variable is front & centre
What's the answer?
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Some of it is situational
If people are positive they will sell there house in a finite time horizon like 12 - 18 months take Variable
Guaranteed to only be a 3 - Month Interest penalty & on a short term basis 100% sure the rate will go down at least 50 BPS
Easy call
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If people are positive there will be no change in their home ownership in the next 5 years there is a decision to make
The BoC will cut a minimum of 50 BPS this year & if the economy is bad enough another 50 BPS or 75 BPS in cuts can happen