Breakdown of the Black Friday data tells us:
-Consumer is weakening.
-95% of sales volume was financed.
-67% of that intends not to pay off within 30 days.
-Roughly $1B was spent using BNPL models which are the worst debt.
This points to a *really* unhealthy economy.
-Consumer is weakening.
-95% of sales volume was financed.
-67% of that intends not to pay off within 30 days.
-Roughly $1B was spent using BNPL models which are the worst debt.
This points to a *really* unhealthy economy.
https://twitter.com/adamonfinance/status/1995500805030400045
These questions keep coming up in comments so quick fire context:
-Yes, 95% includes credit cards, that’s fine, it’s the 67% who don’t think they can pay it off in term that’s bad.
-Historically, that 67% number is 20% for the holiday season and lower the rest of the year.
-This data does not include in-store financing offers (like 0 interest for X months) nor store specific credit cards or partnership that offer that specialty financing.
-This data does not count Visa Debit cards as financing.
-And yes, I’m glad you are super responsible, pay off your card and get points, but most consumers are not, that’s why credit card companies make money.
-Yes, 95% includes credit cards, that’s fine, it’s the 67% who don’t think they can pay it off in term that’s bad.
-Historically, that 67% number is 20% for the holiday season and lower the rest of the year.
-This data does not include in-store financing offers (like 0 interest for X months) nor store specific credit cards or partnership that offer that specialty financing.
-This data does not count Visa Debit cards as financing.
-And yes, I’m glad you are super responsible, pay off your card and get points, but most consumers are not, that’s why credit card companies make money.
This also does not include car data as its retail stats.
So the “financed” percent actually would get higher if it was by all purchase volume, but car financing is very different.
So the “financed” percent actually would get higher if it was by all purchase volume, but car financing is very different.
And for those complaining about “what do you mean 67% was 20% normally”
Grok will point out to you that past analysis shows 28%-36% of people fail to pay off debt in the average holiday season.
Some portion of those obviously expected to be able to.
The 20% is the number who normally self report in surveys that they expect not to.
That’s why 67% is significant, because the self reported number is often LOWER than the normal outcome.
Grok will point out to you that past analysis shows 28%-36% of people fail to pay off debt in the average holiday season.
Some portion of those obviously expected to be able to.
The 20% is the number who normally self report in surveys that they expect not to.
That’s why 67% is significant, because the self reported number is often LOWER than the normal outcome.
https://x.com/adamscochran/status/1996017197702152239
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