Gaetano Profile picture
Dec 4, 2025 15 tweets 7 min read Read on X
If you want to invest in AI with clarity, you need to see the entire system end to end
$POET $NVDA $GOOG $GFS $AMAT

I mapped the entire 12-Layer stack

Every bottleneck, every physics wall, every place value accrues.

Here’s the full system 🧵 Image
Layer 1 - The Blueprints (EDA / Chip Design Software)
$SNPS $CDNS

This is where every chip begins.

Before a wafer ever enters a fab, these tools simulate how electrons will behave at near-atomic scales.

They solve physics problems digitally long before billions are spent physically.

Why it matters - AI chips fail without accurate design. This layer shapes the limits of every processor built above it.

Investor angle: Recurring, unavoidable software revenue tied directly to each generation of silicon.
(Report posted on SS)Image
Layer 2A - The Atoms (Consumables & Chemicals)
$ENTG $LIN $CCMP

These are the ultra-pure chemicals, gases, slurries, cleans, and resists fabs use every hour.

Every wafer pass consumes materials that must meet near-perfect purity standards.

Why it matters - AI scaling depends just as much on chemical precision as transistor counts. Purity equals yield.

Investor angle - High recurrence, high visibility, and protected by strict “copy exact” rules.

(Report posted on SS)Image
Layer 2B - The Physics Wall (Structural & Enabling Materials)
$ASPI $GLW $COHR $ALMU $CRS

This layer contains the hard materials that keep the AI stack operating under massive heat, power, and bandwidth loads.

Isotopically pure silicon, immersion fluids, glass substrates, photonics materials, nuclear fuel, and advanced alloys all live here.

Why it matters - AI has reached physical limits. Scaling requires newer materials that manage heat, power, and mechanical stress.

Investor angle - Scarcity + irreplaceability define the economic moat.

(Report in progress, available by 12/7)Image
Layer 3 - The Foundry (Manufacturing Across All Nodes)
$TSM $SKYT $TSEM $GFS

Where atoms turn into logic.

This includes leading-edge 2nm fabs and strategically important specialty fabs producing power, RF, sensors, BCD, mixed-signal, and defense silicon.

Why it matters - AI demand pressures every node, not just the cutting edge. The entire silicon spectrum scales together.

Investor angle - Multi-year capex pipelines, national-security support, and huge barriers to entry.Image
Layer 4 - The Toll Booths (Fab Equipment + Test & Burn-In)
$ASML $AMAT $LRCX $AEHR

Every chip requires lithography, deposition, etch, metrology, packaging, and finally burn-in and reliability testing.

These companies supply the tools that make semiconductor production possible.

Why it matters - Without equipment, no fabs run. Without testing, no chip ships.

Investor angle - Oligopoly-level moats and consistent demand across every node and market cycle.Image
Layer 5 - The Compute (GPUs, Custom Silicon, HBM)
$NVDA $AMD $AVGO $MRVL $MU

This is the AI engine room: GPUs for training, custom ASICs for inference, and High Bandwidth Memory as the throughput lifeline.

Why it matters - AI performance depends on feeding chips fast data. Compute is evolving toward workload-specific architectures.

Investor angle - Explosive growth with major architectural shifts underway.Image
Layer 6 - The Nervous System (Networking, Optics, Interconnects)
$LITE $COHR $CRDO $ANET $CIEN

This moves data between chips, racks, and clusters.

Copper is strained at high speeds, pushing the industry toward photonics, optical switching, and ultra-low-latency fabrics.

Why it matters - Modern AI clusters are communication systems. Bandwidth and latency shape model performance as much as compute.

Investor angle: Massive TAM expansion driven by cluster density.Image
Layer 7 - The Disruptors (Photonics & Physics Breakthroughs)
$POET $ALMU $LITE $LWLG

This layer captures emerging paradigm-shifting architectures: wafer-scale compute, photonic I/O, optical circuit switching, and physics-driven designs that break today’s limits.

Why it matters - These technologies change how entire AI systems are built and where the bottlenecks move.

Investor angle - High beta exposure to technologies that can reshape infrastructure.Image
Layer 8 - The Power Plant (Energy & Grid)
$GEV $VRT $FLNC $LEU

AI demand is colliding with grid constraints. Hyperscalers are turning to behind-the-meter power: gas turbines, microgrids, HV gear, SMRs, solar deployments, batteries, and nuclear-grade materials.

Why it matters - Compute follows power. Energy availability determines which regions can support AI growth.

Investor angle - Turbines, transformers, substations, storage, nuclear fuel, and grid upgrades enter a multi-year capex boom.Image
Layer 9 - The Sovereign Cloud (Infrastructure & Borders)
$MSFT $AMZN $GOOGL $NBIS $ORCL

Countries are building their own AI factories: sovereign regions, regulated clouds, local data centers, and national compute capacity.

Why it matters - AI is now a national-power asset. Sovereignty drives duplicated infrastructure and long-term demand.

Investor angle - Nations overbuild for control, increasing TAM far beyond pure efficiency models.Image
Layer 10 - The Digital Worker (Agentic Software)
$GOOG $MSFT $ADBE $CRM $PATH

AI shifts from tools to autonomous workers. Agents complete tasks, create output, and interact with workflows.

Pricing moves toward paying for outcomes rather than software seats.

Why it matters - This is the software layer where AI touches productivity and revenue directly.

Investor angle - Early but enormous potential to reshape enterprise economics.Image
Layer 11 - The Immune System (Security for Autonomous Systems)
$PANW $ZS $CRWD $OKTA

As agents proliferate, identity, permissions, and real-time trust become non-optional.

This layer protects autonomous systems from bad actors and bad outcomes.

Why it matters - AI expansion requires new security primitives built for machine decision-making.

Investor angle - Security budgets expand as enterprises adopt autonomous agents.Image
Layer 12 - The Physical Body (Robotics & Automation)
$SYM $ROK $TSLA $TER $ISRG

AI leaves the data center and enters the physical world: humanoids, warehouse automation, manipulators, logistics robots, and real-world VLA stacks.

Why it matters - Robotics is a major link between AI and real GDP productivity.

Investor angle - A direct play on labor shortages, automation, and real-world deployment.Image
On this page I will be diving really deep into each layer

I'll lay the ground work for the importance of each layer

Where each one fits into the overall AI trade

And uncover the Alpha in the companies that investors care about (the cashtags posted are only a very small group of the companies that I will cover in each layer)

I'll post summaries on X and full deep dives on my free SS (l!nk in bio)

You will gain massive knowledge and insight and edge if you follow along this series

Highly recommend turning on your post notification as well!

Bookmark this post!

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More from @crux_capital_

Dec 15, 2025
🚨 THE PHOTONICS COMPANY POWERING AI SCALE

AI factories are entering a phase where connectivity determines scale.

Coherent $COHR supplies the photonic hardware that allows massive GPU clusters to communicate at extreme bandwidth with manageable power and heat.

As clusters grow, optical links become core system architecture inside the AI factory.

Let’s unpack one of my largest photonics positions 🧵Image
THE COPPER WALL IS THE SETUP $COHR

As signaling speeds rise, electrical connections face hard physical limits.

At 200G per lane, loss, noise, and heat compound rapidly over short distances.

This forces architectural changes inside data centers and accelerates the migration toward optical links across racks, rows, and clusters.Image
OPTICS BECOMES THE DEFAULT $COHR

Optical fiber solves the distance and bandwidth problem simultaneously.

Photons travel farther with minimal attenuation and lower thermal cost.

As training clusters scale, the optic attach rate rises across GPUs, switches, and fabrics, creating sustained demand for transceivers and embedded laser content.
Read 17 tweets
Dec 10, 2025
🚨 Photonics 101: A Simple Guide for Investors
$POET $LITE $COHR $ALMU $MRVL

My goal here is to teach the fundamentals

Here is a clean and simple map of what photonics does, how the optical stack works, and where each company fits.

Share and save this thread! 🧵

$AAOI $TSEM $GFS $CIEN $AVGO $ANET $FN $GLW $SMTC $MTSI $NVDA $AIXAImage
Why photonics exists...

As AI systems grow, they generate more data than copper can move efficiently.

Electrical links hit limits tied to distance, stability, heat, and bandwidth.

These limits show up quickly inside modern clusters.

Copper works well across short distances, but beyond that, power budgets spike and network paths get congested.

Light handles these constraints better because photons travel farther with less loss and lower power use.

This is why photonics is moving deeper into AI racks each year.Image
How the photonics stack works...

Photonics is a sequence of steps:

Create the light
Convert data into light
Package it
Move it through fiber
Route it
Manufacture it at scale.

Every company mentioned in earnings calls or industry updates fits somewhere in this chain.

That’s why multiple companies accelerate at the same time

They all serve the same physics-driven trend.

Think of this thread as the map.
Read 11 tweets
Dec 9, 2025
📑Unpacking the Robotics Frontier
$TSLA $NVDA $SYM $ROK $ISRG

Robotics is expanding across more of the real economy than I ever expected.

The deeper I go, the clearer it becomes that what looks like a single category is actually a set of industries, each evolving on its own timeline.

This shift is accelerating now because automation is finally meeting two pressures that matter most: persistent labor scarcity and rising physical complexity across every major sector.

This thread is the framework that helped me make sense of the entire landscape🧵Image
A clear structure for a complex space

Separating robotics into individual industries reveals how different these worlds really are.

Factories scale through precision.
Warehouses scale through density.
Healthcare scales through outcomes.

Oceans, farms, construction sites, and space stations each follow their own physics and economics.

The return on autonomy is improving faster than the cost of deployment, which is why multiple industries are hitting inflection points at once.

Understanding these lines brings the sector into focus.Image
Keeping the scope to U.S. markets

To keep this map clean and investable, I'm focusing only on companies listed on Nasdaq and NYSE.

There are exceptional players globally and privately, but staying within U.S. major listings creates a consistent lens for comparing business models, financials, and regulatory paths.

This also matters now because capital is consolidating around platforms with strong balance sheets and scalable deployment models, qualities easier for me to track within U.S.-listed companies.

With the scope set, here is how the robotics frontier breaks out.Image
Read 16 tweets
Nov 24, 2025
What if scaling AI required abandoning electricity for light? $LITE

At 200 gigabits, copper signals die in inches.

The only path to a million-GPU cluster is photonics.

Meet the architect of this new nervous system. 🧵 Image
The Scale Problem $LITE

The AI factory faces a quiet challenge.

Scaling from thousands to hundreds of thousands of GPUs shifts the bottleneck from compute to connection.

When clusters reach this size, the network defines performance.

Billions in capital expenditure depends on solving this transmission crisis.Image
The Copper Wall $LITE

Physics imposes a hard limit on copper cabling.

At 200 gigabits per lane, electrical signals degrade within inches due to the skin effect.

Connecting a massive cluster with wire becomes impossible due to density and heat.

Optics become the mandatory solution.Image
Read 17 tweets
Nov 22, 2025
The speculative party is over. Time to find the winners.

This thread maps the 12 physical bottlenecks that will define capital allocation for the next decade.

Welcome to the reality of physics. $NVDA $NBIS $AMD Image
Pillar I represents the Silicon Foundation.
$ASML $TSM

This layer is defined by extreme physics and monopolistic choke points.

It is one of the most complex manufacturing challenges in history.

Value accrues to those who master the atomic precision required for the next decade of compute.Image
Chip design requires quantum physics simulation at the 2nm node. $SNPS $CDNS

This software is a permanent tax on the industry.

Below that lies the atoms.

The supply chain for noble gases and metal oxide photoresists remains terrifyingly fragile and vulnerable to geopolitical shock.Image
Read 18 tweets
Oct 13, 2025
This is a story about a micro-cap tech company at a major inflection point.

After years of flying under the radar, One Stop Systems $OSS just brought in a top defense exec as CEO to execute on a newly-built $1B+ sales pipeline.

His first major task: landing a $200M+ sole-source Army contract that could fundamentally reshape the company.

Here's why $OSS is one to watch now 🧵Image
What is One Stop Systems? $OSS

At its core, One Stop Systems designs and manufactures high-performance computing and storage solutions for rugged "edge" applications.

The company focuses on what it calls "AI Transportables," which are systems that deliver artificial intelligence and machine learning capabilities to harsh, mobile, and disconnected environments.

Their products include ruggedized servers, compute accelerators, and flash storage arrays engineered for demanding situations where standard computers would fail.

This technology is critical for real-time data processing in fields like defense, aerospace, autonomous vehicles, and heavy industry.

They build the specialized hardware that allows complex AI to function on the move, far from a traditional data center, enabling a new generation of intelligent systems in the field.Image
Core Market: Defense Dominance $OSS

One Stop Systems is strategically centered on the defense and aerospace market, which represents its largest and most immediate opportunity.

Their technology is a mission-critical component for the most demanding military applications.

This includes C5ISR (Command, Control, Computers, Communications, Cyber, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance), autonomous systems for ground combat vehicles like the Stryker and Abrams, and advanced data processing for reconnaissance aircraft such as the P-8A Poseidon.

In a world moving toward fully networked warfare, the ability to process massive amounts of sensor data in real-time without relying on a remote cloud is a non-negotiable requirement.

OSS's rugged, high-performance computers provide this exact capability, enabling zero-latency decision-making on the battlefield.

This positions them as a key enabler of a generational upgrade in military technology, where performance and reliability are valued far more than price, creating a significant barrier to entry for competitors.Image
Read 17 tweets

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