Chris Elmendorf Profile picture
Dec 5 21 tweets 6 min read Read on X
In the topsy-turvy world of CA Density Bonus Law:

- San Francisco almost certainly must approve this 25-story project on a site zoned for 4 stories

- The city's new ordinance deregulating density in "well-resourced areas" will operate as de-facto downzoning of such sites

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This project's site is zoned for retail use and is currently occupied by the Marina Safeway.

The zoning classification also allows residential use at density of 1 unit per 600 sqft of lot area or density of nearest residential district, whichever is greater.

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The nearest residential district, RM-4, allows density of 1 unit per 200 sqft of lot area.

That translates into 567 units on site.

Developer proposes to build 790 units, which requires a 39% density bonus (790/567 = 1.39).

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Under SDBL, to get a 39% bonus, developer must provide either:
- 21% of the 567 "base project" units as deed-restricted "low income" units, or
- 12% of the base project units as deed-restricted "very low income" units

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In this case, developer is proposing 15% very-low income units.

Why? B/c that's the minimum affordable share under S.F.'s inclusionary zoning ordinance, and developer presumably doesn't want to push the envelope by asking for SDBL "incentive" in form of waiver of extra IZ.

/5
So far, so good. But does state law actually allow the developer can build 25 stories on a site zoned for 4?

Yes!

SDBL requires waiver of any zoning standard that "physically precludes" the project (unless waiver would violate objective health/safety standards).

/6
Could city deny the waivers if it proves there's some other reasonable way to build 790 units on the site in a shorter building?

No, b/c SDBL as glossed by courts protects the "amenities" in the developer's design.

/7
Here, the project's unusual design provides amenities in form of an elevated open-space deck w/ views -- cleverly titled an "amenity deck" in the site plan -- and exceptional light, balconies, and views from the units.

City's 40' height limit must be waived.

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Does city have *any* discretion to modify the project's design or impose conditions of approval that might induce the developer to back out or negotiate for something smaller?

No. Two state laws require ministerial approval. (No discretion.)

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SB 423 requires ministerial approval b/c city is not on track to meet its share of regional target for market-rate housing.

AB 2011 requires ministerial approval b/c site is on a big street & zoned for commercial use, & project meets AB 2011 affordability minimums.

/10
Developer checked the AB 2011 box on the preliminary application.

(Incidentally, AB 2011 would probably allow 65' heights on this site -- b/c it's within 1/2 mile of Van Ness BRT -- but that's irrelevant b/c of SDBL.)

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The preliminary application that the developer filed yesterday locks in place the rules that apply to this project.

Had it been filed after enactment of @DanielLurie's "Family Zoning Plan," however, the project wouldn't fly.

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The reason is that in the name of opening up access to high-opportunity neighborhoods, the Family Zoning Plan will remove density controls on major corridors in those neighborhoods.

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Assuming that the RM-4 District (on which the project relies to get 1 unit per 200 sqft of lot area) becomes density-decontrolled in the Marina, the SDBL will work very differently on this site.

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A developer will have to mock up a "base project" that complies with all applicable objective standards (height, setbacks, FAR, rear-yard open space, etc.).

The SDBL will still lead to bonuses, but the bonus will be in floor area relative to the base project.

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Meaning that a 39% bonus will allow a project that 39% bigger in volume than the zoning-allowed base project, not a project (like this) that bears no relation to base zoning except in its density.

Explanation ⤵️.

/16


On this site, a 39% increase in volume would probably yield a 6-story building, not 25 stories.

So it is that a trivial distinction in local zoning -- form + density standards vs. form alone -- leads to an ~18-story difference in what state law allows!

/17
I've been arguing for a while now that CA should do w/ SDBL what it did with the Builder's Remedy: establish reasonable limits on project size, in exchange for removing constraints on projects' financial feasibility.

/18


E.g., (1) limit "height bonus" to a pro-rata increase (39% bonus -> 39% increase in project height); (2) authorize developers to pay into state affordable housing fund in lieu of providing on-site BMR units; and (3) preempt local IZ that's higher than the SDBL floor.

/19
Maybe this project will provide the impetus to get such a deal done.

/end
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More from @CSElmendorf

Nov 19
Bharat's substack response ⤵️ to my thread about his & @nealemahoney's op-ed has brightened my day.

So refreshing compared to the snarks (and vivid expressions of desire for my assassination) conveyed on this platform.

A few notes on possible paths forward.

🧵/13
By describing the credible commitment problem (the need to reassure developers of new housing or energy that their project won't face price controls for a very long time) I didn't mean to imply, as some critics on the right insist, that the problem is insurmountable.

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I think the problem can be greatly mitigated:

1. By offering DC-style "certificates of assurance" to developers, i.e., recordable contracts for compensation if the project is subjected to price controls within a defined period of time.

/3

Read 14 tweets
Nov 16
I have great respect for @nealemahoney & @BharatRamamurti, but I just about pulled my hair out reading their op-ed this morning.

Price controls aren't going to be "a way out" unless their advocates can credibly commit not to apply them to today's projects tomorrow.

🧵/12 Image
The authors briefly acknowledge this concern at the end of their piece but offer nothing beyond a brief nod to sunset clauses and income targeting.

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They fail to acknowledge that the NYC controls that Mamdani campaigned on strengthening (w/o income targeting...) have been in place for 50+ years; that popularity of rent controls surely depends on them *not* being income targeted;

/3
Read 13 tweets
Nov 16
New results!

In "The Symbolic Politics of Housing," @dbroockman @j_kalla & I showed that public opinion about housing policies correlates w/ affect towards the groups that the policies make salient (via framing or criteria in the policy itself).

🧵/19 Image
Readers asked, "But is the relationship causal?"

We set out to answer their question, focusing on a much-maligned group that ordinary people blame for high housing prices & rents: Real-estate developers.

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Working with a filmmaker and a real-life developer, we created short-form videos that sought to humanize the developer -- without conveying information about what her projects look like or how housing development affects prices or local amenities.

/3
Read 21 tweets
Nov 9
I stumbled across the work of Arthur E. Stamps III this morning and, wow, my eyes have been opened!

He's was (is?) an architect in San Francisco who wrote scores of academic papers on the mass public's aesthetic preferences & the failure of "design review" to serve them.

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His studies show that San Francisco's Great Downzoning (1970s & early 1980s) was an answer to the public's genuine aesthetic dislike of residential dingbats and downtown "refrigerator towers."

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The city planning department had tried to address the public's dislike of midcentury "plain box" style by mandating bay windows. That yielded "Richmond Specials" -- a slight improvement, but still substantially disfavored by public relative to random sample of existing bldgs.

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Read 19 tweets
Nov 1
If builder's remedy comes to San Francisco, the city's anti-demolition / displacement rules go out the window.

For progressive supes & tenant orgs who believe what they say about those rules, enacting a compliant rezoning & constraint removal plan should be Priority #1.

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Explanation:

- s/t narrow exceptions, a city may not impose any local requirements on a builder's remedy project that EITHER (1) render project infeasible, OR (2) prevent a project that meets certain requirements from being constructed "as proposed by the applicant"

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- any local rule or procedure that prevents the demolition of the existing structure on a lot almost surely will "render the project infeasible"

- the exceptions, enumerated in GC 65589.5(d)(1)-(4), do not include tenant or old-building protections

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Read 11 tweets
Oct 30
The SF City Economist report on city's housing-element rezone is a nice bookend to the Court of Appeal's decision last month in New Commune v. Redondo Beach.

Put them together, and it's clear that pretty drastic reforms to CA's Housing Element Law are in order.

🧵/19
Crux of New Commune: If city does fact-intensive, site-specific analysis of "realistic" capacity for new housing, any frustrated YIMBY can dredge up an existing lease, go to court, and get the judge to put the city in Builder's Remedy penalty box.

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'
Import of S.F. City Economist report (together w/ HCD's correspondence w/ city thus far): If city instead uses p(dev) method to gauge its plan's capacity, city will be at mercy of the inexpert model gods at HCD.

Who knows what model they'll bless?

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Read 20 tweets

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