Honza Černý Profile picture
Dec 6 15 tweets 2 min read Read on X
1/ 🧵 EXPLAINED: “BRICS gold-backed currency” (the UNIT) — and why stackers should care.

Lots of noise. Some signal. Here’s the clean version.👇 Image
2/ First: BRICS has NOT officially adopted a single common currency (despite years of headlines). Even BRICS officials have repeatedly emphasized national-currency settlement over a new shared currency.
3/ So what is “UNIT” actually?
UNIT is best described as a proposed settlement / unit-of-account concept linked to a basket:

✅ gold + ✅ BRICS currencies often tied to the IRIAS framework — but not an official BRICS policy instrument.
4/ The core idea proponents push:
Measure currencies in gold terms (gold as the reference), not gold in currency terms.

That’s a philosophical flip — and it matters if it ever scales.
5/ Why stackers care even if it’s “just a pilot / concept”:

Because any trade instrument that anchors to gold nudges the world toward:
➡️ more gold in reserves
➡️ more gold in settlement thinking
➡️ less blind faith in paper IOUs
6/ Now connect the dots to the REAL driver:
Capital markets are enormous. Metals are tiny.

SIFMA: global fixed income ~$145T (2024), global equity mkt cap ~$126.7T.
7/ That means even a small asset reallocation from bonds/equities into physical metal can move price violently.

This is Jensen’s whole point: the “repricing” isn’t mystical — it’s math.
8/ Meanwhile, the plumbing is already creaking.
Reuters documented a London silver tightness / liquidity crunch (and how little “free” metal is actually available because much is tied up/allocated).
9/ Translation:

When everyone realizes “paper claims” ≠ “metal on demand,” the market doesn’t gently adjust…
…it gaps.
10/ Add fundamentals:

UBS has discussed a very large silver deficit outlook for 2026 (hundreds of millions of ounces) in a ~1.34B oz demand framework.
11/ So why do bullion banks keep calling “the top”?
Because if you’re structurally committed to paper leverage, your job is to:
🗣️ talk it down
📄 roll it forward
🧯 manage confidence
(Price discovery is inconvenient.)
12/ Here’s the stacker takeaway:

If a gold-referenced settlement concept gains traction at the same time London/COMEX tightness shows up…
…you get a feedback loop:

more demand → more stress → higher price → more demand.
14/ Bottom line:

Whether “UNIT” becomes real policy or not, the direction-of-travel is clear:

🌍 the world is experimenting with settlement outside the dollar

🥇 gold keeps creeping back into the monetary conversation

🥈 and silver… is the tiny market with the biggest torque
15/ Stackers:

you’re not early because you guessed a date.

You’re early because you chose the asset that breaks paper games when trust cracks.

🔁 Repost if you want the “paper vs physical” crowd to read something uncomfortable.

#Silver #Gold #BRICS #SoundMoney #PreciousMetals
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More from @honzacern1

Dec 8
🔥🧵THREAD : Japan + U.S. + Europe — The Bond Market Is Breaking in Slow Motion
1/
Everyone’s staring at stocks and memes.
But the real story is in bonds.

Japan. The U.S. Europe.

All repricing long-term money at the same time.

That’s not “normal volatility.”
That’s a system warning. ⚠️
2/
Bonds are the plumbing of the modern world.

Governments fund. Banks hedge. Pensions survive. Mortgages get priced.

If the bond market loses stability…
everything else becomes a side-effect.
Read 26 tweets
Dec 8
🔥🧵 THREAD: The $60 Line in Silver Isn’t “Just a Number.” It’s a TRIGGER.

Thanks to @DarioCpx for kick-off Image
1/
Silver is doing something important right now:
It’s compressing under a key level while the physical world keeps tightening.

That level is $60.
And if we break it… things can accelerate fast. 🥈🔥
2/
Why $60 matters: options positioning.
On Jan-26 silver futures options, there’s heavy open interest at:

$60 calls: ~1,800 OI
$65 calls: ~1,131 OI

That’s not retail noise.
That’s a meaningful wall of bets above the market.
Read 11 tweets
Dec 8
1/

China’s silver market just sent another message —
the physical world is tightening, not loosening.
Both SGE and SHFE closed the week higher:

SGE silver: +1.12%

SHFE silver: +2.06%

Price in USD: ** ~$60/oz**

When both markets rise together, it’s usually one thing:

➡️ Real demand. Real metal. Real pressure.Image
Image
2/

Just look at the vaults:

SHFE silver vaults
Dec 5: 687,956 kg
Dec 8: 699,291 kg
A small +11,335 kg bounce —
after a massive –28,680 kg weekly draw just days before.
This is classic supply-tightness behavior:

➡️ Big outflows
➡️ Tiny inflows
➡️ Price keeps rising
The vaults are rebuilding nothing.
They’re barely breathing.
3/

And the SGE weekly vault numbers?
This week: missing / delayed.
Historically, that almost always means two things:

1) Volatility
2) A strong weekly move — usually a large outflow

Last week’s draw was nearly –29 tons.
If this week is similar or even larger, it will surface soon — and the price action is already hinting in that direction.
Read 7 tweets
Dec 7
🔥 THREAD: US Small Businesses Are Breaking — And Silver Knows Why Image
1/
US small business bankruptcies just hit an all-time high.

2,221 filings under Subchapter V — the program designed to prevent small firms from dying.

If this is what “no recession” looks like… I don’t want to see the real one.
2/
Subchapter V was created to help distressed small companies survive.

Faster. Cheaper. More flexible than Chapter 11.

It was meant as a shield.

Now it’s becoming a funnel.
Read 13 tweets
Dec 7
🚨 The LBMA “Silver Surge”: What the Numbers Really Tell Us

Over the past three months, LBMA claims its silver vaults have suddenly gained 83.7 million ounces.
That’s 2,600 metric tons.

To put this in perspective:
That is the equivalent of two large silver mines magically appearing — without a single miner, refinery, or logistics company noticing.

In real commodity markets, that simply does not happen.

Below is what the data actually tells us.
1. Such a massive “increase in inventories” is statistically impossible

83.7 million ounces is not a rounding error.
It’s a global-scale event — the kind that would hit mining news, industrial procurement channels, and bullion trade desks everywhere.

Yet the global market saw zero corresponding physical flows.

When numbers leap like this without real-world evidence, it’s not supply — it’s accounting.
2. The physical market shows the exact opposite trend

While LBMA vaults supposedly ballooned:

SGE inventories continue to fall by tens of tonnes per week

India is importing record volumes of silver

The US Mint is struggling to source blanks

Industrial users report shortages of high-purity silver

A real surplus would ease physical stress across all these channels.

Instead, physical supply is tightening globally.
Read 7 tweets
Dec 7
🧵When metal prices are at record highs
but CAPEX is down 86%…

something is coming.

This should be impossible — and yet it’s happening.
Here’s the part of the story nobody talks about. Image
1/

Gold at $4,200
Silver at nearly $60
… and mining CAPEX is still at one of the lowest levels in history.

Yes — this is how a supply crisis looks before it gets priced in.

Via @TaviCosta Image
2/

Adjusted for gold prices, miners are spending –86 % vs peak levels.

In normal cycles, record prices = record spending.
Not this time.
Read 16 tweets

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