Honza Černý Profile picture
Dec 8 7 tweets 3 min read Read on X
1/

China’s silver market just sent another message —
the physical world is tightening, not loosening.
Both SGE and SHFE closed the week higher:

SGE silver: +1.12%

SHFE silver: +2.06%

Price in USD: ** ~$60/oz**

When both markets rise together, it’s usually one thing:

➡️ Real demand. Real metal. Real pressure.Image
Image
2/

Just look at the vaults:

SHFE silver vaults
Dec 5: 687,956 kg
Dec 8: 699,291 kg
A small +11,335 kg bounce —
after a massive –28,680 kg weekly draw just days before.
This is classic supply-tightness behavior:

➡️ Big outflows
➡️ Tiny inflows
➡️ Price keeps rising
The vaults are rebuilding nothing.
They’re barely breathing.
3/

And the SGE weekly vault numbers?
This week: missing / delayed.
Historically, that almost always means two things:

1) Volatility
2) A strong weekly move — usually a large outflow

Last week’s draw was nearly –29 tons.
If this week is similar or even larger, it will surface soon — and the price action is already hinting in that direction.
4/

Meanwhile the global picture hasn’t changed:

China imports are still at record volumes

India keeps absorbing tens of millions of ounces

Western ETFs keep bleeding

Miners are not increasing production

Industrial demand refuses to slow

This isn’t a bear market.
This is a slow-motion squeeze.
A squeeze that only shows itself at the end.
5/

For stackers, the message is simple:

- Asia is pricing physical.
- The West is pricing paper.
- And the gap keeps widening.

When China pays $60+ for real metal,
you don’t ask “Is silver undervalued?”
You ask:

“How long until the West catches up?”

Stay focused.
Stay calm.
Stay stacking. 🥈🔥

#Silver #PhysicalSilver #SilverSqueeze #Stackers
Here’s what the Western paper markets are doing right now:

Despite the missing SGE weekly vault data — and despite China pricing physical silver above $60 —
COMEX and CFD silver are trading in a tight, nervous range around $58–59.

Lots of micro-volatility.
No real direction.
Low conviction.

This is exactly what you expect when:
Asia pulls physical higher
Paper tries to suppress volatility

Liquidity thins out

And the real move hasn’t started yet

The charts show hesitation.
The fundamentals show pressure.
And pressure always wins.

Stackers understand the difference. 🥈🔥Image
Image
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More from @honzacern1

Dec 8
🔥🧵THREAD : Japan + U.S. + Europe — The Bond Market Is Breaking in Slow Motion
1/
Everyone’s staring at stocks and memes.
But the real story is in bonds.

Japan. The U.S. Europe.

All repricing long-term money at the same time.

That’s not “normal volatility.”
That’s a system warning. ⚠️
2/
Bonds are the plumbing of the modern world.

Governments fund. Banks hedge. Pensions survive. Mortgages get priced.

If the bond market loses stability…
everything else becomes a side-effect.
Read 26 tweets
Dec 8
🔥🧵 THREAD: The $60 Line in Silver Isn’t “Just a Number.” It’s a TRIGGER.

Thanks to @DarioCpx for kick-off Image
1/
Silver is doing something important right now:
It’s compressing under a key level while the physical world keeps tightening.

That level is $60.
And if we break it… things can accelerate fast. 🥈🔥
2/
Why $60 matters: options positioning.
On Jan-26 silver futures options, there’s heavy open interest at:

$60 calls: ~1,800 OI
$65 calls: ~1,131 OI

That’s not retail noise.
That’s a meaningful wall of bets above the market.
Read 11 tweets
Dec 7
🔥 THREAD: US Small Businesses Are Breaking — And Silver Knows Why Image
1/
US small business bankruptcies just hit an all-time high.

2,221 filings under Subchapter V — the program designed to prevent small firms from dying.

If this is what “no recession” looks like… I don’t want to see the real one.
2/
Subchapter V was created to help distressed small companies survive.

Faster. Cheaper. More flexible than Chapter 11.

It was meant as a shield.

Now it’s becoming a funnel.
Read 13 tweets
Dec 7
🚨 The LBMA “Silver Surge”: What the Numbers Really Tell Us

Over the past three months, LBMA claims its silver vaults have suddenly gained 83.7 million ounces.
That’s 2,600 metric tons.

To put this in perspective:
That is the equivalent of two large silver mines magically appearing — without a single miner, refinery, or logistics company noticing.

In real commodity markets, that simply does not happen.

Below is what the data actually tells us.
1. Such a massive “increase in inventories” is statistically impossible

83.7 million ounces is not a rounding error.
It’s a global-scale event — the kind that would hit mining news, industrial procurement channels, and bullion trade desks everywhere.

Yet the global market saw zero corresponding physical flows.

When numbers leap like this without real-world evidence, it’s not supply — it’s accounting.
2. The physical market shows the exact opposite trend

While LBMA vaults supposedly ballooned:

SGE inventories continue to fall by tens of tonnes per week

India is importing record volumes of silver

The US Mint is struggling to source blanks

Industrial users report shortages of high-purity silver

A real surplus would ease physical stress across all these channels.

Instead, physical supply is tightening globally.
Read 7 tweets
Dec 7
🧵When metal prices are at record highs
but CAPEX is down 86%…

something is coming.

This should be impossible — and yet it’s happening.
Here’s the part of the story nobody talks about. Image
1/

Gold at $4,200
Silver at nearly $60
… and mining CAPEX is still at one of the lowest levels in history.

Yes — this is how a supply crisis looks before it gets priced in.

Via @TaviCosta Image
2/

Adjusted for gold prices, miners are spending –86 % vs peak levels.

In normal cycles, record prices = record spending.
Not this time.
Read 16 tweets
Dec 6
1/ 🧵 EXPLAINED: “BRICS gold-backed currency” (the UNIT) — and why stackers should care.

Lots of noise. Some signal. Here’s the clean version.👇 Image
2/ First: BRICS has NOT officially adopted a single common currency (despite years of headlines). Even BRICS officials have repeatedly emphasized national-currency settlement over a new shared currency.
3/ So what is “UNIT” actually?
UNIT is best described as a proposed settlement / unit-of-account concept linked to a basket:

✅ gold + ✅ BRICS currencies often tied to the IRIAS framework — but not an official BRICS policy instrument.
Read 15 tweets

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