Honza Černý Profile picture
Dec 8 7 tweets 3 min read Read on X
1/

China’s silver market just sent another message —
the physical world is tightening, not loosening.
Both SGE and SHFE closed the week higher:

SGE silver: +1.12%

SHFE silver: +2.06%

Price in USD: ** ~$60/oz**

When both markets rise together, it’s usually one thing:

➡️ Real demand. Real metal. Real pressure.Image
Image
2/

Just look at the vaults:

SHFE silver vaults
Dec 5: 687,956 kg
Dec 8: 699,291 kg
A small +11,335 kg bounce —
after a massive –28,680 kg weekly draw just days before.
This is classic supply-tightness behavior:

➡️ Big outflows
➡️ Tiny inflows
➡️ Price keeps rising
The vaults are rebuilding nothing.
They’re barely breathing.
3/

And the SGE weekly vault numbers?
This week: missing / delayed.
Historically, that almost always means two things:

1) Volatility
2) A strong weekly move — usually a large outflow

Last week’s draw was nearly –29 tons.
If this week is similar or even larger, it will surface soon — and the price action is already hinting in that direction.
4/

Meanwhile the global picture hasn’t changed:

China imports are still at record volumes

India keeps absorbing tens of millions of ounces

Western ETFs keep bleeding

Miners are not increasing production

Industrial demand refuses to slow

This isn’t a bear market.
This is a slow-motion squeeze.
A squeeze that only shows itself at the end.
5/

For stackers, the message is simple:

- Asia is pricing physical.
- The West is pricing paper.
- And the gap keeps widening.

When China pays $60+ for real metal,
you don’t ask “Is silver undervalued?”
You ask:

“How long until the West catches up?”

Stay focused.
Stay calm.
Stay stacking. 🥈🔥

#Silver #PhysicalSilver #SilverSqueeze #Stackers
Here’s what the Western paper markets are doing right now:

Despite the missing SGE weekly vault data — and despite China pricing physical silver above $60 —
COMEX and CFD silver are trading in a tight, nervous range around $58–59.

Lots of micro-volatility.
No real direction.
Low conviction.

This is exactly what you expect when:
Asia pulls physical higher
Paper tries to suppress volatility

Liquidity thins out

And the real move hasn’t started yet

The charts show hesitation.
The fundamentals show pressure.
And pressure always wins.

Stackers understand the difference. 🥈🔥Image
Image
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More from @honzacern1

Dec 10
🧵 THREAD: China Is Signaling the Next Silver Phase Image
Image
1/

China just printed another all-time high on silver.
And instead of cooling off, their vaults added more metal:

• +24,057 kg today (SHFE)
• +6,150 kg this week (SGE)

Who buys MORE at ATH?
👉 Someone who knows the price is still wrong.
2/

People say: “But a chart shows China below COMEX!”

No — that’s just the USD/CNY trick.

Silver in China is priced in RMB.

Move the exchange rate a few percent and you can make anything look cheap or expensive.
The reality?

In RMB, China is paying all-time-high prices.
Read 10 tweets
Dec 9
🔥 THREAD: The Silver–Oil Ratio Just Hit Its 2nd Highest Level in History — And Nobody Seems to Understand What This Means

(Read this before you sleep… if you still can.) Image
1/
Something insane is happening in the commodity world.
Not in gold.
Not in copper.
Not in oil.

➡️ In SILVER.
And it’s flashing a warning signal we haven’t seen in decades.
2/
The silver-to-oil ratio—how many barrels of oil 1 oz of silver can buy—just spiked to the 2nd highest level in modern history.

Let that sink in:

🥈 One ounce of silver buys more energy than almost any time since WWII.
Read 13 tweets
Dec 9
1/
China’s SGE/SHFE daily report for Dec 9, 2025 looks… strange.

• Silver ≈ $59.8/oz
• SHFE silver vaults: 717,788 kg
• Daily change: +18,497 kg
• SGE weekly silver vaults (Dec 1–5): N/A 🤔

Vaults “up”, data “missing”. That combo matters. Image
2/
Let’s translate that vault jump:

18,497 kg = 18.5 tons = ~594,000 oz.

Big on paper.
Tiny for China’s industrial machine.

You can move that much metal with a handful of trucks.

So where did it really come from?
3/
Spoiler:
It’s almost certainly not new supply.

❌ Not from miners — new mine output takes 3–6 months to reach a vault.
❌ Not from imports — no RMB price reaction, no premium shift, no matching signals.

Meaning:
This is reclassification, not “fresh silver”.
Read 10 tweets
Dec 8
🔥🧵THREAD : Japan + U.S. + Europe — The Bond Market Is Breaking in Slow Motion
1/
Everyone’s staring at stocks and memes.
But the real story is in bonds.

Japan. The U.S. Europe.

All repricing long-term money at the same time.

That’s not “normal volatility.”
That’s a system warning. ⚠️
2/
Bonds are the plumbing of the modern world.

Governments fund. Banks hedge. Pensions survive. Mortgages get priced.

If the bond market loses stability…
everything else becomes a side-effect.
Read 26 tweets
Dec 8
🔥🧵 THREAD: The $60 Line in Silver Isn’t “Just a Number.” It’s a TRIGGER.

Thanks to @DarioCpx for kick-off Image
1/
Silver is doing something important right now:
It’s compressing under a key level while the physical world keeps tightening.

That level is $60.
And if we break it… things can accelerate fast. 🥈🔥
2/
Why $60 matters: options positioning.
On Jan-26 silver futures options, there’s heavy open interest at:

$60 calls: ~1,800 OI
$65 calls: ~1,131 OI

That’s not retail noise.
That’s a meaningful wall of bets above the market.
Read 11 tweets
Dec 7
🔥 THREAD: US Small Businesses Are Breaking — And Silver Knows Why Image
1/
US small business bankruptcies just hit an all-time high.

2,221 filings under Subchapter V — the program designed to prevent small firms from dying.

If this is what “no recession” looks like… I don’t want to see the real one.
2/
Subchapter V was created to help distressed small companies survive.

Faster. Cheaper. More flexible than Chapter 11.

It was meant as a shield.

Now it’s becoming a funnel.
Read 13 tweets

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