Honza Černý Profile picture
Dec 9 13 tweets 2 min read Read on X
🔥 THREAD: The Silver–Oil Ratio Just Hit Its 2nd Highest Level in History — And Nobody Seems to Understand What This Means

(Read this before you sleep… if you still can.) Image
1/
Something insane is happening in the commodity world.
Not in gold.
Not in copper.
Not in oil.

➡️ In SILVER.
And it’s flashing a warning signal we haven’t seen in decades.
2/
The silver-to-oil ratio—how many barrels of oil 1 oz of silver can buy—just spiked to the 2nd highest level in modern history.

Let that sink in:

🥈 One ounce of silver buys more energy than almost any time since WWII.
3/
This ratio only explodes during SYSTEMIC turning points:

• 1970s stagflation
• 1980 Hunt brothers squeeze
• 2008 crisis
• 2020 crash

Today?
No stagflation shock.
No crisis.
No panic.

And yet the ratio is screaming.
4/
Why?
Because the market is quietly admitting something:

➡️ Silver is becoming more strategically important than oil.

Energy is the bloodstream.
Silver is the nervous system.

One can be replaced.
The other CANNOT.
5/
Look at the fundamentals:
• Solar demand = record
• EV demand = record
• Semiconductor demand = record
• Medical + industrial use = record
• Mine CAPEX = worst in 15 years
• 75% of supply = by-product
• Inventories = vanishing
• East = absorbing every physical ounce
6/
If 1 oz of silver buys more barrels of oil than at any time since the 1970s…
…that means one thing:

➡️ The world has TOO LITTLE SILVER.

Not on COMEX.
Not in ETFs.
In the REAL WORLD.
7/
And here’s the killer:

Every previous spike in the silver–oil ratio was followed by a massive move in silver.

Not sometimes.
Not occasionally.

EVERY. SINGLE. TIME.
8/
People talk about “undervaluation” like it’s a meme.

But this?
This isn’t a meme.

This is the hardest industrial signal since the 1970s telling you:

🥈 Silver is dramatically mispriced.
🛢️ Energy is cheap relative to silver.
🌍 The system is shifting.
9/
If you think this ends quietly, you’re dreaming.

Markets don’t ignore signals like this.
Not when the metal with the tightest physical deficit in the entire G7 supply chain is outperforming ENERGY itself.
10/
The silver–oil ratio is whispering a truth the mainstream refuses to say out loud:

➡️ Silver is no longer a precious metal.
It’s a strategic resource.
And the world is running out of it.
11/
Sleep on this if you can.
Most won’t.

#silver #oil #commodities #energy #markets #inflation #macro #investing
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More from @honzacern1

Dec 9
1/
China’s SGE/SHFE daily report for Dec 9, 2025 looks… strange.

• Silver ≈ $59.8/oz
• SHFE silver vaults: 717,788 kg
• Daily change: +18,497 kg
• SGE weekly silver vaults (Dec 1–5): N/A 🤔

Vaults “up”, data “missing”. That combo matters. Image
2/
Let’s translate that vault jump:

18,497 kg = 18.5 tons = ~594,000 oz.

Big on paper.
Tiny for China’s industrial machine.

You can move that much metal with a handful of trucks.

So where did it really come from?
3/
Spoiler:
It’s almost certainly not new supply.

❌ Not from miners — new mine output takes 3–6 months to reach a vault.
❌ Not from imports — no RMB price reaction, no premium shift, no matching signals.

Meaning:
This is reclassification, not “fresh silver”.
Read 10 tweets
Dec 8
🔥🧵THREAD : Japan + U.S. + Europe — The Bond Market Is Breaking in Slow Motion
1/
Everyone’s staring at stocks and memes.
But the real story is in bonds.

Japan. The U.S. Europe.

All repricing long-term money at the same time.

That’s not “normal volatility.”
That’s a system warning. ⚠️
2/
Bonds are the plumbing of the modern world.

Governments fund. Banks hedge. Pensions survive. Mortgages get priced.

If the bond market loses stability…
everything else becomes a side-effect.
Read 26 tweets
Dec 8
🔥🧵 THREAD: The $60 Line in Silver Isn’t “Just a Number.” It’s a TRIGGER.

Thanks to @DarioCpx for kick-off Image
1/
Silver is doing something important right now:
It’s compressing under a key level while the physical world keeps tightening.

That level is $60.
And if we break it… things can accelerate fast. 🥈🔥
2/
Why $60 matters: options positioning.
On Jan-26 silver futures options, there’s heavy open interest at:

$60 calls: ~1,800 OI
$65 calls: ~1,131 OI

That’s not retail noise.
That’s a meaningful wall of bets above the market.
Read 11 tweets
Dec 8
1/

China’s silver market just sent another message —
the physical world is tightening, not loosening.
Both SGE and SHFE closed the week higher:

SGE silver: +1.12%

SHFE silver: +2.06%

Price in USD: ** ~$60/oz**

When both markets rise together, it’s usually one thing:

➡️ Real demand. Real metal. Real pressure.Image
Image
2/

Just look at the vaults:

SHFE silver vaults
Dec 5: 687,956 kg
Dec 8: 699,291 kg
A small +11,335 kg bounce —
after a massive –28,680 kg weekly draw just days before.
This is classic supply-tightness behavior:

➡️ Big outflows
➡️ Tiny inflows
➡️ Price keeps rising
The vaults are rebuilding nothing.
They’re barely breathing.
3/

And the SGE weekly vault numbers?
This week: missing / delayed.
Historically, that almost always means two things:

1) Volatility
2) A strong weekly move — usually a large outflow

Last week’s draw was nearly –29 tons.
If this week is similar or even larger, it will surface soon — and the price action is already hinting in that direction.
Read 7 tweets
Dec 7
🔥 THREAD: US Small Businesses Are Breaking — And Silver Knows Why Image
1/
US small business bankruptcies just hit an all-time high.

2,221 filings under Subchapter V — the program designed to prevent small firms from dying.

If this is what “no recession” looks like… I don’t want to see the real one.
2/
Subchapter V was created to help distressed small companies survive.

Faster. Cheaper. More flexible than Chapter 11.

It was meant as a shield.

Now it’s becoming a funnel.
Read 13 tweets
Dec 7
🚨 The LBMA “Silver Surge”: What the Numbers Really Tell Us

Over the past three months, LBMA claims its silver vaults have suddenly gained 83.7 million ounces.
That’s 2,600 metric tons.

To put this in perspective:
That is the equivalent of two large silver mines magically appearing — without a single miner, refinery, or logistics company noticing.

In real commodity markets, that simply does not happen.

Below is what the data actually tells us.
1. Such a massive “increase in inventories” is statistically impossible

83.7 million ounces is not a rounding error.
It’s a global-scale event — the kind that would hit mining news, industrial procurement channels, and bullion trade desks everywhere.

Yet the global market saw zero corresponding physical flows.

When numbers leap like this without real-world evidence, it’s not supply — it’s accounting.
2. The physical market shows the exact opposite trend

While LBMA vaults supposedly ballooned:

SGE inventories continue to fall by tens of tonnes per week

India is importing record volumes of silver

The US Mint is struggling to source blanks

Industrial users report shortages of high-purity silver

A real surplus would ease physical stress across all these channels.

Instead, physical supply is tightening globally.
Read 7 tweets

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