Honza Černý Profile picture
Dec 9 13 tweets 2 min read Read on X
🔥 THREAD: The Silver–Oil Ratio Just Hit Its 2nd Highest Level in History — And Nobody Seems to Understand What This Means

(Read this before you sleep… if you still can.) Image
1/
Something insane is happening in the commodity world.
Not in gold.
Not in copper.
Not in oil.

➡️ In SILVER.
And it’s flashing a warning signal we haven’t seen in decades.
2/
The silver-to-oil ratio—how many barrels of oil 1 oz of silver can buy—just spiked to the 2nd highest level in modern history.

Let that sink in:

🥈 One ounce of silver buys more energy than almost any time since WWII.
3/
This ratio only explodes during SYSTEMIC turning points:

• 1970s stagflation
• 1980 Hunt brothers squeeze
• 2008 crisis
• 2020 crash

Today?
No stagflation shock.
No crisis.
No panic.

And yet the ratio is screaming.
4/
Why?
Because the market is quietly admitting something:

➡️ Silver is becoming more strategically important than oil.

Energy is the bloodstream.
Silver is the nervous system.

One can be replaced.
The other CANNOT.
5/
Look at the fundamentals:
• Solar demand = record
• EV demand = record
• Semiconductor demand = record
• Medical + industrial use = record
• Mine CAPEX = worst in 15 years
• 75% of supply = by-product
• Inventories = vanishing
• East = absorbing every physical ounce
6/
If 1 oz of silver buys more barrels of oil than at any time since the 1970s…
…that means one thing:

➡️ The world has TOO LITTLE SILVER.

Not on COMEX.
Not in ETFs.
In the REAL WORLD.
7/
And here’s the killer:

Every previous spike in the silver–oil ratio was followed by a massive move in silver.

Not sometimes.
Not occasionally.

EVERY. SINGLE. TIME.
8/
People talk about “undervaluation” like it’s a meme.

But this?
This isn’t a meme.

This is the hardest industrial signal since the 1970s telling you:

🥈 Silver is dramatically mispriced.
🛢️ Energy is cheap relative to silver.
🌍 The system is shifting.
9/
If you think this ends quietly, you’re dreaming.

Markets don’t ignore signals like this.
Not when the metal with the tightest physical deficit in the entire G7 supply chain is outperforming ENERGY itself.
10/
The silver–oil ratio is whispering a truth the mainstream refuses to say out loud:

➡️ Silver is no longer a precious metal.
It’s a strategic resource.
And the world is running out of it.
11/
Sleep on this if you can.
Most won’t.

#silver #oil #commodities #energy #markets #inflation #macro #investing
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More from @honzacern1

Dec 11
THREAD: China just added more fuel under silver 🔥🇨🇳 Image
Image
1️⃣ SHFE silver up +3.07% today
Price pushed to ¥14,488/kg (~$63.83/oz) — China is chasing physical while the West still debates if $60 silver is “too high.”
2️⃣ Vaults keep rising

• SHFE daily change: +38,755 kg
• SGE weekly change: +6,150 kg
China keeps pulling metal into the system — and it’s happening in the middle of a global squeeze.
Read 7 tweets
Dec 10
🧵The Policy Mix That Ignites Silver
1/
When you combine all three signals, the picture becomes very clear:

• $40B/month in T-bill purchases
• a fresh –0.25% rate cut
• and an economy already in stagflation

…you don’t get a “soft landing.”
You get the start of a new inflation wave.
2/
T-bill purchases = stealth liquidity.
Rate cuts in stagflation = negative real rates.

Negative real rates = the oldest monetary accelerant in history.

This is how a central bank weakens its own currency without admitting it.
Read 8 tweets
Dec 10
🧵 THREAD: Silver’s Call Skew Just Did Something Big (and gold didn’t follow… that’s the whole story)

Thanx to @themarketear for GREAT KICK-OFF Image
Image
1/ Something unusual just happened in the options market:

Silver’s call skew is exploding upward — separating sharply from gold. This almost never happens without a major move behind it. 🥈⚡
2/ What is call skew? It’s how much traders are willing to overpay for far-out bullish call options vs. options near the current price.

When skew jumps, it means:

big money is betting on an upside shock.
Read 11 tweets
Dec 10
🧵 THREAD: China Is Signaling the Next Silver Phase Image
Image
1/

China just printed another all-time high on silver.
And instead of cooling off, their vaults added more metal:

• +24,057 kg today (SHFE)
• +6,150 kg this week (SGE)

Who buys MORE at ATH?
👉 Someone who knows the price is still wrong.
2/

People say: “But a chart shows China below COMEX!”

No — that’s just the USD/CNY trick.

Silver in China is priced in RMB.

Move the exchange rate a few percent and you can make anything look cheap or expensive.
The reality?

In RMB, China is paying all-time-high prices.
Read 10 tweets
Dec 9
1/
China’s SGE/SHFE daily report for Dec 9, 2025 looks… strange.

• Silver ≈ $59.8/oz
• SHFE silver vaults: 717,788 kg
• Daily change: +18,497 kg
• SGE weekly silver vaults (Dec 1–5): N/A 🤔

Vaults “up”, data “missing”. That combo matters. Image
2/
Let’s translate that vault jump:

18,497 kg = 18.5 tons = ~594,000 oz.

Big on paper.
Tiny for China’s industrial machine.

You can move that much metal with a handful of trucks.

So where did it really come from?
3/
Spoiler:
It’s almost certainly not new supply.

❌ Not from miners — new mine output takes 3–6 months to reach a vault.
❌ Not from imports — no RMB price reaction, no premium shift, no matching signals.

Meaning:
This is reclassification, not “fresh silver”.
Read 10 tweets
Dec 8
🔥🧵THREAD : Japan + U.S. + Europe — The Bond Market Is Breaking in Slow Motion
1/
Everyone’s staring at stocks and memes.
But the real story is in bonds.

Japan. The U.S. Europe.

All repricing long-term money at the same time.

That’s not “normal volatility.”
That’s a system warning. ⚠️
2/
Bonds are the plumbing of the modern world.

Governments fund. Banks hedge. Pensions survive. Mortgages get priced.

If the bond market loses stability…
everything else becomes a side-effect.
Read 26 tweets

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