Thread by @ChrisO_wiki

1/ Ukraine's recent reversal of Russian gains in Kupyansk – celebrated here by President Zelenskyy – highlights months of false claims of victory by General Valery Gerasimov. Russian warbloggers have for months been warning that such claims are false. ⬇️

https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1999473376620937551

2/ The Russians have been fighting their way into Kupyansk since July 2025, making very slow (and now reportedly reversed) advances into the city from the north.

https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1999420688197718289

3/ This has been accompanied by a steady drumbeat of exaggerated claims from the Russian military, including to Putin's face. Kupyansk is a large-scale example of the Russian practice of "taking on credit", or faking successes for medals and bonuses.

https://x.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1888551675918512471

4/ Russian warbloggers have repeatedly criticised the Russian Ministry of Defence for exaggerating or simply lying about successes at Kupyansk. As early as 6 July, 'Military Informant' pointed out that there was no visual evidence of claimed advances.

5/ "Either the Russian Armed Forces, in complete silence for several weeks, have made an unexpected breakthrough that will soon lead to the loss of Kupyansk for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, or someone in this area is making purely virtual advances and this will soon be revealed."

6/ As usual when falsely claimed advances are exposed, 'Voenkor Kotenok' reported a few days later that highly trained specialists – in this case artillerymen – were being rounded up and expended as assault troops in an effort to turn the claimed advance into reality.

7/ The prominent Russian warblog Rybar commented on 14 July that "the comments of official representatives, modified to suit the needs of journalists, are in fact not connected in any way to the situation "on the ground" and are designed more for momentary hype than for the…

8/ …reliable delivery of information to the audience." The channel criticised premature claims of victory as "at the very least, premature, and, at the very worst, disrespectful to the soldiers advancing in its vicinity."

9/ 'Two Majors', another prominent Russian warblog, blamed commanders on the ground for lying to their superiors: "'Taking on credit' is difficult to accept at the front and demoralises people on the ground, ever since the era of the previous defense minister's 'Krynki report.'

10/ "Nevertheless, the obvious question remains unanswered: did the local command really embellish the already “beautiful report” to the top and mislead the Centre?"

11/ 'Voenkor Kotenok' said that this was exactly what had happened: "It seems that even the leadership of the Ministry of Defense has fallen for the bait of cheerful reports about the liberation of villages, when in reality... 'You can make mistakes, but you can't lie.' © Alas!"

12/ "I have received information more than once about disinformation being sent to the higher-ups regarding the situation in the Kupyansk direction.

13/ "Moreover, those at the top are well aware of which units and formations (unfortunately, well-known and recognizable ones) are engaged in forgery. I hope conclusions will be drawn, since we're talking about a system—a systematic lie."

14/ By the end of August, the Russian military claimed to have completely surrounded Kupyansk and taken half the city. This was too big a lie for Yuri Podolyaka, one of Russia's most prominent warbloggers:

15/ "I'm listening to Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov and trying to understand who is so clumsily setting him up and why:

'Forces and military units of the West Group of Forces have almost completely blockaded the city of Kupyansk and liberated about half of its territory.'

16/ "After all, all of this is ultimately reported to the Supreme Commander [Putin]. And this, to put it mildly, is a gross exaggeration of our successes on this section of the front."

17/ He pointed out that the claim was backed up by the flimsiest evidence – a Russian flag being dropped by drone onto the city's TV tower in a so-called "anti-crisis operation", after hard questions were asked about Gerasimov's claims.

18/ 'Voenkor Kotenok' commented: "Reports from the Kupyansk sector have long been perplexing, to put it mildly, and require re-examination, as they're significantly ahead of the events.

19/ "Fantasies were born and passed on to the higher-ups, causing confusion among the commanders and soldiers of units carrying out combat missions in the sector.

20/ "They were very surprised to learn of advances in their sectors, where a well-equipped enemy, entrenched in the ground for years and even superior in FPV aviation, had been operating."

21/ 'Rupor Fausta Z', a war veteran, commented that the troops were "really sick of liberating Kupyansk. Like Bilohorivka, they take it 10 times a year, but they still haven't taken it...

22/ "When we consolidate our position in the town and have a vast gray zone around it, that's when we should trumpet that the town is ours. As long as individual assault groups are moving in, that doesn't mean it's ours."

23/ By late September, the Russian advance had slowed to such a crawl that the Russian MOD was issuing statements proclaiming the capture of individual buildings. It published a report that included a map of recent advances that attracted instant ridicule from warbloggers.

24/ As several pointed out, the map showed Kupyansk virtually surrounded and a large part of the city captured. Yuri Podolyaka observed that this likely represented what the senior generals were using to direct the campaign, based on the false information they were receiving:

25/ "Well, it has finally become clear what exactly was reported to the higher-ups regarding control of Kupyansk. This is a section of a map from the Russian Ministry of Defense's Telegram channel. The Kupyansk area is roughly coloured like this.

26/ "This means we supposedly control the entire right-bank part of Kupyansk and the northern part of the left bank. Well, you get the idea, we've already "practically taken" Kupyansk without anyone noticing."

27/ Despite the ridicule, Gerasimov repeated the same claims about Kupyansk in late October and added a claim that 18 Ukrainian battalions were trapped there. This prompted Russian warbloggers to speculate that he was trying to impress Donald Trump as much as Vladimir Putin.

28/ By late November, the Russian military was resorting to posting obviously staged videos to promote its claims of capturing Kupyansk. They were so obvious that they were called out by Russian warbloggers such as Rybar:

29/ "For several weeks now, reports have been emerging from the Kupyansk direction, one more triumphant than the other: men in clean camouflage uniforms are reading from basements from pieces of paper about large-scale successes and the clearing of key points.

30/ "However, most of these reports are not only far from reality, but have also played into the hands of the enemy, who have refuted them with objective surveillance footage and received a much-needed dose of 'anti-crisis.'"

31/ 'Voenkor Kotenok' observed:

"It's long been known that the situation in Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast, is strikingly different from what's being presented in reports to higher-ups and even in the media..."

32/ "Colleagues noted something that was immediately obvious, or rather, completely unobtrusive: the complete lack of visual [objective] monitoring of military operations in the city.

33/ "At best, soldiers would emerge from closed, unmarked spaces, basements, introducing themselves as commanders of assault units, reporting the liberation of ... a certain number of buildings in Kupyansk and their advance. But there was no confirmation."

34/ On 20 November, Gerasimov personally reported to Putin that Kupyansk had been "liberated". Russian warbloggers once again cried foul, pointing out that there was no objective evidence of the claim. Meanwhile, the fighting continued into December.

https://x.com/Zlatti_71/status/1991588888293642636

35/ By 4 December, Russian warbloggers were reporting that it was impossible to make any real advances in the city due to extreme logistical difficulties – the only way to get supplies in was to drop them from drones.

36/ 'DONTSTOPWAR' wrote:

"It seems that the decision to continue the offensive is dictated by the need to report success, rather than by the actual operational situation. Take off your rose-colored glasses; the political officers are already misleading everyone."

37/ As another warblogger noted, the exaggerated claims seem to be linked to a desire to persuade Donald Trump that Ukraine is doomed and to impress Vladimir Putin, who seems to be cut off from objective sources of information:

38/ "In accordance with geopolitical motives (the so-called “peace process” that everyone believes in so much), we continue to report on the liberation of city after city, village after village “on credit.” The example of Kupyansk shows us why this is a bad initiative...

39/ "And what is the result? The result is that the President hears endless reports from Kuzovlev [euphemism for Gerasimov] about the successes of our army in Kupyansk, which leads to new demands from above for further advances."

40/ The reality on the ground was – and remains – that Kupyansk is a bloody meat-grinder for the Russians. 'Brothers in Arms' commented on 9 December about the situation in the city:

41/ "Well, guys, everyone's been talking about the capture of Kupyansk for weeks now. Only our brothers in the area can't confirm it. The fighting is going on house after house. Every block is being torn apart.

42/ "[The Ukrainians] are clinging on and mining everything in sight, pounding it with drones. There's no sign of capture there. The meat grinder continues."

43/ Zelenskyy's appearance at the gates of Kupyansk doesn't mean that Ukraine has won the battle. But it does demonstrate, as the Russian warbloggers themselves acknowledge, that Gerasimov's claims have been proven false in the most public way possible. /end

Sources:
🔹 t.me/milinfolive/15…
🔹 t.me/voenkorKotenok…
🔹 t.me/rybar/72129
🔹 t.me/dva_majors/753…
🔹 t.me/yurasumy/24487
🔹 t.me/voenkorKotenok…
🔹 t.me/yurasumy/24508
🔹 t.me/milinfolive/15…
🔹 t.me/yurasumy/24857

🔹 t.me/milinfolive/15…
🔹 t.me/rybar/75316
🔹 t.me/voenkorKotenok…
🔹 t.me/dontstopwar/23…
🔹 t.me/bratyapooruzhi…