1/ Igor 'Strelkov' Girkin says that Russia will only achieve victory if Ukraine is 'defeated and reformatted', but complains that nothing has been done to persuade the Ukrainian people that this is actually a good thing for them. ⬇️
2/ From his suspiciously well-connected prison cell, he writes of his favourite (but distinctly fantastic) scenario, which is likely shared by influential pro-war figures in the Russian elite:
"I see clear criteria after which we could speak of victory."
3/ "Let me reiterate that this is precisely the collapse of the entire so-called Ukrainian state, which was created entirely as an anti-Russian project, as "Anti-Russia," and was bound to sooner or later enter into a military confrontation with the Russian Federation.
4/ "What had to happen, what was inevitable, has happened.
Moreover, if Ukraine remains as it is, a new war will inevitably break out in a relatively short time, a war that will be far more difficult for Russia and under far more challenging circumstances.
5/ "This is under the conditions of Ukraine's total support from an entire coalition of states hostile to Russia.
6/ "Therefore, to achieve victory, we must defeat the Ukrainian army and ensure that the cities and towns that our soldiers are now storming, bleeding, surrender to us without a fight.
7/ "So that the Ukrainian army doesn't cling to every bush, every city, but retreats, abandoning equipment and weapons, and surrendering en masse.
8/ "This can be achieved not only by military strikes but by creating an alternative that can attract the residents of so-called Ukraine to our side. This is something that hasn't been done at all in four years.
9/ "We haven't even once attempted to create an alternative project for the people of Ukraine. Neither a government of so-called Ukraine nor a government of Novorossiya has been created. Nothing has been created to give the people of Ukraine any alternative.
10/ "Moreover, we have done a great deal to strengthen the Ukrainian state by effectively recognising its legitimacy and being willing to compromise.
11/ "If the goal of defeating this state, reuniting it with Russia, and reformatting it is clearly defined, then the strategic objective will be defined, and at least those who fight against us will understand what we actually want.
12/ "And consider whether it would be beneficial for them (themselves, their families, their loved ones, and relatives) to end the war on the terms Russia is proposing.
13/ "Right now, Russia is offering practically a ceasefire line and nothing more, preserving the Ukrainian regime and preserving it in its current form.
14/ "This option forces the enemy to fight stubbornly, and thus we will not achieve ideological victory over them. And militarily, we will not achieve victory until we set the goal of total victory.
15/ "We can take as many villages and towns as we like, we can seize as many heights and forested areas as we like, but until the enemy army is routed, until it is crushed, until it is deprived of the will to win, we will not achieve victory.
16/ "So, to sum it up again: victory—This is the collapse of the Kyiv regime, its capitulation, the rout of its army. This is the enemy's unconditional acceptance of the conditions that Russia will set. That is victory.
17/ "Everything else is a truce and the future continuation of the war." /end
1/ 790 Russian soldiers from a single unit have died at Pokrovsk, according to a Russian combat medic, with another 900 having deserted according to leaked figures. Another soldier from the same unit says that losses are running at 80-90%. ⬇️
2/ The unnamed medic says that she is serving with the 39th Separate Guards Motorised Rifle Brigade (military unit 35390) at Pokrovsk. She describes how she was on the front line with "young guys" aged 19 or 20:
3/ "They were running around, and we had dugouts, I think. And I say No, no, fuck that. They ran, in short, into a Ukrainian minefield and it just tore them apart. Well, it's not like they were 200, dead, none of them died. Well, they were just blown up really badly.
1/ How does a false report that Kupyansk has been captured by Russia come to be delivered on camera to Vladimir Putin? A Russian warblogger blames a military reporting process that prizes low-value metrics, rewards blind optimism, and eliminates nuance. ⬇️
"The transfer of operational information from the bottom up in the Russian Ministry of Defence and the Russian Armed Forces is accompanied by a consistent transformation of the initial data as it moves up the chain of command."
3/ "This process is not a system, but an established practice and is based on stable semantic and organisational mechanisms.
At the level of a motorised rifle/airborne/assault platoon, initial observations are recorded in formulations that imply the completion of the action.
1/ A sign of how things are now on the Russian front lines: Russian volunteers declare success after raising enough money to buy a truckload of body bags. ⬇️
2/ From the 'Good staff' Telegram channel:
"Our next item to collect is body bags for our fallen comrades.
As hard as it is for us, and it's always hard for me to write about it, the guys have an urgent need for them."
3/ "It would be great to buy 1,000 of them. They're giving us that amount at 171 rubles each...
Friends, remember we started a fundraiser for bags for our fallen comrades.
We managed to collect and purchase 500 bags. The bags were purchased and delivered to the guys.
1/ Ukraine's audacious attack today on a Russian submarine at anchor in Novorossiysk has prompted anger and derision from Russian warbloggers. One complains: "I don't have the strength to comment on this anal fucking anymore." ⬇️
2/ Anatoly Shariy comments that the attack on the submarine Varshavyanka is "totally mindblowing." "Is Novorossiysk missing a submarine?" he asks sarcastically.
'Military Informant' comments gloomily that the damage is likely to be severe:
3/ "It appears the unmanned surface vehicle (USV) [sic, actually an unmanned underwater vehicle, UUV] struck near the Varshavyanka's stern, where the vertical and aft horizontal rudders, as well as the propeller, are located."
1/ Scammers claiming to be 'forensic experts' are reported to be conning hundreds of thousands of dollars from relatives of dead and missing Russian soldiers, to 'identify' their loved ones from heavily pixelated images released by Ukrainian sources. ⬇️
2/ The Russian warblogger and journalist Anastasia Kashevarova reports on the latest scam affecting relatives, who have been plagued by an entire industry of fake mediums, astrologers and other frauds who claim to be able to track down the missing and dead:
3/ "Independent experts profit from the families of the missing and killed, confirming for money that their fighter is theirs using blurry, faceless photos. The attached photos, or simply blurry pixels, are photos from forensic examinations used to identify the fighters.
1/ A member of Russia's military police says that they have been ordered to impose at least 15 fines per day, or face being sent to their deaths in stormtrooper squads. Because they are so widely hated, they are sent to fight alongside convicts and 'undesirables'. ⬇️
2/ The military police, known as the VP, are widely detested by the rest of the Russian military for their corruption, violent treatment of detainees, and tendency to impose fines for trivial breaches of regulations, such as not having the right stamps on official paperwork.
3/ The latter tendency has been the subject of an increasing number of complaints. Russian warbloggers report that that Russian soldiers in the rear areas of Russian-occupied Donetsk and Luhansk are experiencing worsening harassment from the VP.