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Joequant Profile picture
@joequant
Dec 16 • 5 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Actually immigration explains why the Hong Kong pan-dem movement fell apart. So the NED/CIA lied to the kids and got them to believe that they would be shot and gang raped by the CCP. So after the riots calmed down you had a ton of kids that were in total panic, and they
wanted out of Hong Kong. UK was the only real govt that allowed for immigration. US and Taiwan just slammed the door shut. The trouble is that the reason the kids were protesting was because of economic reasons and if they moved to the US, then they would
be the problem of the US. So once the US slammed the door shut, and once the kids found out that they wouldn't be shot or gang raped, and the worst they got was community service or maybe a few weeks in jail, then they realized what a bunch of liars the NED/CIA were.
So the next time you tried to get an idealistic kid to demonstrate, they aren't going to bite. Something about people my generation is that we were all stupid idealistic kids at Tiananmen. Once you win and you have the power, things get complicated, but there
turns out to be a huge amount of sympathy toward demonstrators in the CCP, because we were once in their shoes. By contrast, the NED/CIA types just see the kids are pawns and tools, and it is become obvious to every one what horrible people these guys are.

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More from @joequant

Joequant Profile picture
Nov 17
There is a reason that banks hire physicists to do economic modelling and that's because economists tend to loose touch with reality. I am a theorist, if you tell me to make an mathematical model that can prove anything I can. That's the thing about math, you can use it to
demonstrate anything you want. What makes a model useful is whether it actually explains something about the world, and for a lot of this you end up wanting to remove as much math as you can so that you can explain to someone what is going on. Also all models are wrong, some
models are useful. The other thing is that economists use models wrong. You can't change the laws of physics, but when you talk about human systems, we are not slaves to numbers and if you have a model that describes a system and gives you numbers that aren't what you want.
Read 5 tweets
Joequant Profile picture
Nov 3
No this *isn't* how China works. The reason that Chinese companies are successful is that they can be indirectly *owned* by a govt entity, but they aren't *managed* by them.

So
file.finance.sina.com.cn/211.154.219.97… x.com/dunne_insights…
So one of the funds that is owned by the Beijing govt owns 10% of the company. The next largest owner is the HK Securities Clearing Company Ltd at 8%. Then you have a lot of different private shareholders. They are owners, but they are not managers. This structure was
created in the 1990's. And the Beijing govt's main interest is that the company makes money so that they pay a healthy return to the Beijing govt. So one reason this capitalism/socialism thing works is that
Read 5 tweets
Joequant Profile picture
Sep 27
The other thing is that Pettis thinks that it is impossible for China to deliver 5 percent GDP growth for another decade, and that just seems crazy to me. First urbanization in China is at 60 percent and the fraction of people employed in agriculture is 20 percent, which means
you still have one more round of farm to services. China still has a lot of farmers that are surplus. Second you look at AI, EVs, and the energy transition. Not to mention the jobs that are available if China just implements the 1971 Nixon plan for post-Apollo.
The thing is that if you go back to the 1960s you were getting Western GDP growth of 5 percent. This stopped in 1973 with the Arab oil shock. The obsession the Pettis has with efficiency came in the 1980s. Once both the Soviet Union and US got hit with an oil shock, then th
Read 7 tweets
Joequant Profile picture
Sep 24
So the economics of AI is very different in China. The people that are funding investments in AI are businesses that can take whatever developments they get in AI and immediately put it into their business processes and make money. So Alibaba spends a ton on qwen3, and
they immediately put that into Taobao chat bots that end up immediately generating revenue. The other thing is that Chinese companies are looking at AI to increase revenue and not decrease costs. The other thing is that because everything is open source, Chinese companies
are doing things with AI that are impossible because everything with AI is centralized. For example, I was at a presentation of how a bank was using AI in China. So it turns out that they have multiple models. There is a top level model that figures out a general question.
Read 7 tweets
Joequant Profile picture
Aug 19
So one fascinating question is "so how did China know that the world was going to dramatically change, whereas the US completely missed this?" I think a lot of this has to do with the fact that China has 5000 years of history whereas the US just has 300 years.
So lets step back. What was the *goal* of pre-Trump US foreign policy. It was to freeze the world as it existed in 1991-1993 or alternatively to freeze the world as it existed in 1947. The US won the cold war, and then the goal of US foreign policy was to keep US global
hegemony permanently. The problem is that with 5000 years of historical experience, China had enough historical sense to know that this was impossible, and that something was going to break. The US had a window around 2010 in which it could have cut a deal with Russia and China
Read 7 tweets
Joequant Profile picture
Aug 14
So some China hater asked "who believes Chinese numbers". I said "I do, because I was at a Chinese mall that was totally packed" (Coco Plaza in Futian). Someone asked about all of the social media posts with empty malls, and I mentioned that this is what I call *LYING*.
About this sort of thing is that you can often just blow up these lies if you just make a small post pointing out they are garbage. Anyway I was really disappointed since I was hoping to get tacos at the Taco Bell at Coco, but they seemed to have closed a few months ago.
Coco Park is what I would call a "bougie mall". High end middle class, but not super luxe (i.e. the type of place that would have a Taco Bell). One reason I wanted Tex-Mex is that I am not in a great mood that there was a shooting in Austin at a Target I used to frequent since
Read 4 tweets

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