Actually immigration explains why the Hong Kong pan-dem movement fell apart. So the NED/CIA lied to the kids and got them to believe that they would be shot and gang raped by the CCP. So after the riots calmed down you had a ton of kids that were in total panic, and they

https://twitter.com/KareemRifai/status/2000692377950781688

wanted out of Hong Kong. UK was the only real govt that allowed for immigration. US and Taiwan just slammed the door shut. The trouble is that the reason the kids were protesting was because of economic reasons and if they moved to the US, then they would

There is a reason that banks hire physicists to do economic modelling and that's because economists tend to loose touch with reality. I am a theorist, if you tell me to make an mathematical model that can prove anything I can. That's the thing about math, you can use it to demonstrate anything you want. What makes a model useful is whether it actually explains something about the world, and for a lot of this you end up wanting to remove as much math as you can so that you can explain to someone what is going on. Also all models are wrong, some

No this *isn't* how China works. The reason that Chinese companies are successful is that they can be indirectly *owned* by a govt entity, but they aren't *managed* by them.

So
file.finance.sina.com.cn/211.154.219.97… x.com/dunne_insights… So one of the funds that is owned by the Beijing govt owns 10% of the company. The next largest owner is the HK Securities Clearing Company Ltd at 8%. Then you have a lot of different private shareholders. They are owners, but they are not managers. This structure was

The other thing is that Pettis thinks that it is impossible for China to deliver 5 percent GDP growth for another decade, and that just seems crazy to me. First urbanization in China is at 60 percent and the fraction of people employed in agriculture is 20 percent, which means

https://twitter.com/michaelxpettis/status/1971789678513999907

you still have one more round of farm to services. China still has a lot of farmers that are surplus. Second you look at AI, EVs, and the energy transition. Not to mention the jobs that are available if China just implements the 1971 Nixon plan for post-Apollo.

So the economics of AI is very different in China. The people that are funding investments in AI are businesses that can take whatever developments they get in AI and immediately put it into their business processes and make money. So Alibaba spends a ton on qwen3, and

https://twitter.com/hsu_steve/status/1970831541627388088

they immediately put that into Taobao chat bots that end up immediately generating revenue. The other thing is that Chinese companies are looking at AI to increase revenue and not decrease costs. The other thing is that because everything is open source, Chinese companies

So one fascinating question is "so how did China know that the world was going to dramatically change, whereas the US completely missed this?" I think a lot of this has to do with the fact that China has 5000 years of history whereas the US just has 300 years. So lets step back. What was the *goal* of pre-Trump US foreign policy. It was to freeze the world as it existed in 1991-1993 or alternatively to freeze the world as it existed in 1947. The US won the cold war, and then the goal of US foreign policy was to keep US global

So some China hater asked "who believes Chinese numbers". I said "I do, because I was at a Chinese mall that was totally packed" (Coco Plaza in Futian). Someone asked about all of the social media posts with empty malls, and I mentioned that this is what I call *LYING*. About this sort of thing is that you can often just blow up these lies if you just make a small post pointing out they are garbage. Anyway I was really disappointed since I was hoping to get tacos at the Taco Bell at Coco, but they seemed to have closed a few months ago.

So I just posted me digging down and coming up with research showing that this is *totally wrong*. In fact all of these increases in trade have nothing to do directly with Trump tariffs, and they were all things that were in the pipe. But rather than showing ....

https://twitter.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1946182407733789104

how the US is hurting Chinese exporters, and how China is so dependent on the American consumer, once you do some research you find the *opposite* that China is the world manufacturing hub and is making tuna fish boats for Nauru, LNG tankers for Qatar, rubber tires for Paraguay.

I am going to be very rude here since there really isn't any excuse for this sloppy research. After spending a few hours on the internet and finding that Nauru was importing tuna ships, I went through the databases and looked at what everyone was importing......

https://twitter.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1946182407733789104

So first of all the diagrams are misleading, and you see this spike right after 2025, but then the whole diagram is spiky so after going through the databases I found...