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Joequant Profile picture
Joequant
@joequant
Physicist and Space Cadet @MIT @UTAustin
Sep 27 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
The other thing is that Pettis thinks that it is impossible for China to deliver 5 percent GDP growth for another decade, and that just seems crazy to me. First urbanization in China is at 60 percent and the fraction of people employed in agriculture is 20 percent, which means you still have one more round of farm to services. China still has a lot of farmers that are surplus. Second you look at AI, EVs, and the energy transition. Not to mention the jobs that are available if China just implements the 1971 Nixon plan for post-Apollo.
Sep 24 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
So the economics of AI is very different in China. The people that are funding investments in AI are businesses that can take whatever developments they get in AI and immediately put it into their business processes and make money. So Alibaba spends a ton on qwen3, and they immediately put that into Taobao chat bots that end up immediately generating revenue. The other thing is that Chinese companies are looking at AI to increase revenue and not decrease costs. The other thing is that because everything is open source, Chinese companies
Aug 19 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
So one fascinating question is "so how did China know that the world was going to dramatically change, whereas the US completely missed this?" I think a lot of this has to do with the fact that China has 5000 years of history whereas the US just has 300 years. So lets step back. What was the *goal* of pre-Trump US foreign policy. It was to freeze the world as it existed in 1991-1993 or alternatively to freeze the world as it existed in 1947. The US won the cold war, and then the goal of US foreign policy was to keep US global
Aug 14 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
So some China hater asked "who believes Chinese numbers". I said "I do, because I was at a Chinese mall that was totally packed" (Coco Plaza in Futian). Someone asked about all of the social media posts with empty malls, and I mentioned that this is what I call *LYING*. About this sort of thing is that you can often just blow up these lies if you just make a small post pointing out they are garbage. Anyway I was really disappointed since I was hoping to get tacos at the Taco Bell at Coco, but they seemed to have closed a few months ago.
Jul 19 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
So I just posted me digging down and coming up with research showing that this is *totally wrong*. In fact all of these increases in trade have nothing to do directly with Trump tariffs, and they were all things that were in the pipe. But rather than showing .... how the US is hurting Chinese exporters, and how China is so dependent on the American consumer, once you do some research you find the *opposite* that China is the world manufacturing hub and is making tuna fish boats for Nauru, LNG tankers for Qatar, rubber tires for Paraguay.
Jul 19 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
I am going to be very rude here since there really isn't any excuse for this sloppy research. After spending a few hours on the internet and finding that Nauru was importing tuna ships, I went through the databases and looked at what everyone was importing...... So first of all the diagrams are misleading, and you see this spike right after 2025, but then the whole diagram is spiky so after going through the databases I found...