🧵I don't get rattled often, but today I've had enough when I watched online two credentialled American apologists for #Russia's imperialism repeating yet again that we caused the war in Ukraine because we declared in 2008 that we would consider bringing Ukraine into @NATO. 1/10
I ask this: What planet do these people live on to argue with a straight face that a nation brutally attacked by its neighbor, and fighting for its very survival must explain itself to them and convince them that it has the right to live free? Are they simply this callous? 2/10
Would they be just as self-righteous if the discussion was about our country? Would they then claim that as Americans we have no right to make sovereign choices because a great power "out there" disagrees? By this logic the 13 American colonies should have never rebelled. 3/10
I'm even more bewildered when I hear those credentialled experts pontificate on how much territory Ukraine must transfer to Russia in exchange for a nebulous "peace deal." Indeed, it's easy to give away somebody else's land. Would they be as glib if it was our territory? 4/10
I'm a member of academia, but I would never presume that the Darwinian ecosystem we call "international relations" has much in common with a graduate school seminar or a lecture, or that international politics fits neatly into an IR theoretical framework I once developed. 5/10
For twenty years the West appeased Putin's aggression, whether because countries preferred to do lucrative business with Russia rather than standing up for principle (Nord Stream 1 and 2 are just two examples of this pattern), or we simply could not face up to aggression. 6/10
Then when President Biden finally said no, there was no strategy, no vision of victory, no resolve to punish aggression-only "escalation management" while Ukraine bled year after year. Remember Chancellor Scholz's "Ukraine can't lose, Russia can't win" dictum? What was that? 7/10
Today as Putin yanks our chain and calls it "negotiations," while he demands that Ukraine surrender, we continue to deceive ourselves that Russian imperialism can be bargained with, deflected or (yes, once again) appeased at an acceptable cost, including abandoning Ukraine. 8/10
I can't speak for our political class but I lose my patience when our credentialled experts repeat Russian talking points and blame the West instead of the tyrant who started this war that killed a million people, but whom we treat like a man one can bargain with in good faith.9/10
Time to look in the mirror and remember what democracies used to stand for. It's indecent to blame the victim for the brutality of the aggressor. We talk incessantly about "universal rights," but maybe we should stop being so self-absorbed and see what we are becoming. 10/End
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🧵About to get on the plane to fly back home. A few thoughts after visiting @KUL_Lublin and my series of meetings in Warsaw. First, #Poland has undergone a remarkable transformation over the post-Cold War decades. What was once a smoldering ruin, is now w thriving economy. 1/5
#Poland’s remarkable transformation is a tribute to its people, with a new generation-untainted by communism-coming into its own and now ready (I hope) to take the helm. In my conversations I sensed patriotism, aspirations and tenacity young Poles display in spades. But…2/5
Central Europe’s security is devolving fast, with Russian imperialism and revisionism rearing its head yet again, causing some say that “history is about to repeat itself.” But those people are wrong, for while geography has remained constant, the region’s dynamic has not. 3/5
🧵I recently visited Europe, and I'm planning to go again to Poland, UK, Lithuania and Finland. I returned from my recent visit to Poland with mixed feelings, encouraged by the commitment to collective defense, but concerned by the apparent chaos in various policy debates. 1/11
Since the end of the Cold War, Poland has achieved a remarkable economic success, with a new generation- untainted by communism-coming into its own. The country is a model. But what is missing in various publicized policy debates are the fundamentals geopolitics and power. 2/11
"Man and not nature initiates, but nature in large measure controls." This classic dictum should be the starting point of debate for countries on @NATO's flank, whether Poland, Finland or others, for geography at the point of contact between Europe and Russia is unyielding. 3/11
🧵My initial impressions from this trip to Europe: The continent is not ready to face up to the new reality of the increasingly fractured regional balance of power. The eastern flank countries understand the existential threat Russia poses to Europe. Other allies don’t. 1/8
This regionalized security optics across Europe means that @NATO doesn’t have a genuine shared consensus on the nature the threat #Russia poses, and how to address it. I called this once a “crisis of disbelief” on the part of the West’s policy elites and political leadership. 2/8
Political rhetoric one hears about rebuilding European militaries, spending 5% of GDP on defense by 2035, etc. doesn’t align with the reality on the ground. Few in the US appreciate how thoroughly disarmed Europe has become. I estimate it will take about a decade to rebuild. 3/8
🧵One would assume that rooting for the home team is to be expected. So it is disconcerting to say the least to watch how many among Western policy experts seem ready to declare that the competition is over and China has already displaced the US as the world’s leading power. 1/7
Reading some of those articles, op-ed’s and posts made me wonder what drives this fascination with China-a country that (no matter how one spins it) is a communist state and shares none of Western values we proclaim to hold dear. Why in effect so much disdain for ourselves? 2/7
Perhaps some of it is driven by sheer ignorance-by not really knowing your adversary and taking Beijing’s talking points at face value. Or perhaps it says more about what happened to our own societies, as universities all but stopped passing Western cultural DNA to our young. 3/7
🧵History never repeats itself, but it rhymes on occasion, and when it comes to the decomposing European security architecture, historical analogues are compelling. A determined revisionist state – Russia – is arming at speed and scale to reverse the outcome of the Cold War. 1/8
References to past traumas can be overdone; still, we're living through an era of Western appeasement of Russia that invites comparisons to the interwar period in Europe. Putin repeatedly used military power to seize territory but paid only a relatively small price for it. 2/8
Western leaders seem unable/unwilling (?) to acknowledge that aggression is staring them in the face. After all, it's not every day one hears @NATO SecGen opine that not shooting down Russian aircraft repeatedly violating @NATO airspace is a sign of our collective strength. 3/8
🧵The maxim ”know your adversary” should be one of the core principles of US foreign policy. It should be the founding principle of US-Russia relations. Stop mirror-imaging and stop assuming that Russia is behaving as we would. Russia is not a part of the West—it never was. 1/10
Russia is not a nation-state; it is an empire that expanded from a tiny Duchy of Muscovy into a tsarist domain spanning eleven time zones. After 1917 Stalin continued in the same vein, pushing deep into Europe. And now Putin and his cronies are having yet another go at it. 2/10
The expectation that one can have a lasting negotiated peace deal with Russia is not borne by facts. In the Russian imperial tradition what matters is only power—both in the country’s internal governance and in foreign affair. The Leninist “kto-kogo” (who beats whom) is key. 3/10