Clément Molin Profile picture
Dec 23, 2025 25 tweets 11 min read Read on X
The NEW DONBAS LINE, a massive ukrainian 🇺🇦 fortification program

This year, Ukraine built important fortifications that may be able to stop or slow down russian 🇷🇺 forces. Visible from space, these fortifications have already proven useful.

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This weekend, Ukraine published this video showcasing their new defensive line.

For the first time, they officially showed the results of months of digging effort. This video shows the most advanced defensive line, with only two holes in 16km !
This line is new because it is not only anti-tank or anti-infantry obstacles, but all of them at the same time.

We can count 21 barbed wires rows (4 lines and 3 lines at the bottom of ditches), 3 dragon teeths rows and 3 rows of anti-tank ditches. Image
In a recent article, @United24media talked about those defenses, with a good adaptation of my map (without directly quoting it 🙃but anyway), I recommend the article :

united24media.com/war-in-ukraine…Image
Since the first days of 2025, the previous fortifications programs have been abandonned and replaced by new massive continuous lines.

You can see them here in yellow, with in white the constructions ongoing, you can see the coherence of this new defensive system. Image
Together with @Playfra0 I also started adding barbed wire and dragon teeths visible on SAR images.

Those can give a good understanding of where the next lines will be and to also understand how difficult it will be to cross the new lines. Image
For months, ukrainian excavators have been digging 3 rows anti-tank ditches. Even if russian forces cross the first one, they will have to cross the second and third ones.

-> Any breaching operation will get way more difficult, or maybe even impossible. Image
Also, after the first row of ditch (which is of course very deep -probably around 2 meters- and filled with barbed wire (impossible to cross if you want to disconnect the teeths)), you will find 3 rows of dragon teeths, also with barbed wire on tope... Image
Additionnaly, independant systems of barbed wire are also prepared, as I said, you will need to cross 7 obstacles, 3 with only barbed wire and the others filled with barbed wire.

It would take a lot of time and a lot of men to cross... Image
In august, the most critical situation was for the southern frontline, mainly in Zaporizhia and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts.

Urgently, 3 defensive lines have been built, one east of Zaporizhia (completed now south of it), one near Novomykolaivka and one behind Pokrovsk'e. Image
These lines are nearly finished, despite Russia trying to reach them as fast as possible if they want to start the battle for Zaporizhia next year. Image
The main vulnerability of those lines are the roads, the small holes that have to be kept open for ukrainian forces to go to the frontline or later retreat behind the line.

This is also a good point, artillery and drone teams can target one point instead of a 10km area... Image
This summer, when russian forces broke through in Dobropilla, they managed to cross the New Donbas Line for few days.

Ukraine understood the problem and new lines are now also covering rivers and forest, no hole is left except designated roads. Image
Additionally, small entrenched positions have been built just behind the defensive lines. There are multiple ones so drone teams and infantry can hide in different places and move.

Those positions are concealed in treelines and will soon disappear with the trees. Image
Case study, Novomykolaivka :

Near this small countryside town where the video above was filmed, two lines have been recently dug. Both are in front of urban areas, being completed southwards and a river is even behind, as another natural defense. Image
West and north-west of Pokrovsk, massive defensive lines are standing. The upper ring is still being completed, it should be soon finished despite the snow)

Just west of Pokrovsk, russian forces will face a lot of ditches and barbed wire before even reaching the first of 4 lines Image
Are those lines useful ?

Yes, Here, with just one ditch, russian forces have to go on a road, which has been mined (you can mine roads with UGVs.

And this video is old. Russia is now mainly using unarmoured vehicles...
You have seen those images, but ditches and barbed wires will increase russian losses : russian forces now have to cut through wires or walk on small roads in order to cross those lines.

-> It is getting very deadly. Image
Image
What about ukrainian positions ?

Ukraine is lacking men, but those lines will allow less men to hold an area : you need men to cover the line, mainly drone teams and the holes.

They can be safely hidden in small trenches and bunkers behind the line. Image
Image
Image
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Another thing you want is concealed artillery and mortar positions.

With this kind of positions, it will be easy to strikes russian forces approching or trying to cross the line. Image


In july, I published this map with the New Donbas Line fortifications back then. I added the most recent ones in white.

It clearly shows that the construction is ongoing very fast and it will get more and more difficult to push. Image
How can Russia cross those lines ?

They can use massive artillery, FAB and FPV barrage on the line to open holes into it.

But one should remember that the line is 100-150 meters long, so it will need a lot of precise strikes. Image
And even after, it will still be difficult to cross the line under fire.

So, this new type of line is the new strategy. Today, a small unfinished portion of it is on the frontline, in Ivanivka, it allowed ukrainian forces to hold and push back the russians there. Image
We will see soon if those lines are working and if new ones are under construction (too much clouds for 2 months).

I will continue to map them and to analyse their use. Many people are still laughing at me when I talk about it, saying that it is not an important aspect of ukrainian defenses.

I believe they are wrong, those lines are meant to change the course of the war, by stopping Russian forces at least temporarily at a series of points where they will lose a lot of men and time.Image
Thank you for following this long and detailed thread on ukrainian fortifications.

It is a long and difficult work that I do for free, so if you want to support me, you can do it here :

Thank you !buymeacoffee.com/clement.molin

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More from @clement_molin

Feb 17
Le chiffre de 200km2 repris par l'armée ukrainienne 🇺🇦 circule, provenant de l'ISW et relayé par l'AFP.

⚠️Pourtant, ce chiffre est probablement exagéré et et manque de précisions. L'ISW est connu pour ses imprécisions, reprises par l'AFP et d'autres.

🧵THREAD🧵1/9 ⬇️ Image
En janvier dernier, alors que nous avions décelé une baisse de la progression russe (données de @Pouletvolant3), l'AFP titrait le contraire : parlant d'une augmentation x2 de la progression russe. Image
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En réalité, cette confiance aveugle dans l'ISW, sans vérification directe a joué un tour à l'AFP.

Le mois de janvier n'avait pas vu une augmentation x2 de la progression russe, à moins que l'on ne considère la vidéo d'un soldat russe, seul, avec un drapeau (mort ou vivant) comme une preuve suffisante de contrôle.
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Feb 16
L'Ethiopie 🇪🇹 se rapproche de plus en plus de la guerre civile généralisée

La mobilisation massive de l'armée éthiopienne dans le nord, son retrait de larges zones de l'Amhara⚫️, vers le Tigré 🟡 et les tensions frontalières font craindre un conflit majeur.

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L'Ethiopie, 2ème pays le plus peuplé d'Afrique est très régulièrement surnommée la "Yougoslavie d'Afrique", car elle est en réalité une fédération ethnique.

La lutte de pouvoir qui opposent ces ethnies provoque des conflits meurtriers. Image
Ces dernières semaines et en particulier ces derniers jours, l'armée éthiopienne (ENDF) a déplacé des dizaines de milliers d'hommes vers le nord du pays.

La région visée, le Tigré était déjà au cœur d'un conflit meurtrier entre 2020 et 2022 qui avait fait 600 000 morts.
Read 24 tweets
Feb 15
Each day that passes gives Ukraine 🇺🇦 more time to prepare new fortifications that will ultimately slow down russian 🇷🇺 offensives.

The recent russian setbacks allowed Ukraine to largely reinforce its fortification strategy.

🧵THREAD🧵1/16 ⬇️ Image
Ukrainian fortifications are improving. The main defensive lines (yellow) are meant to protect Ukraine's rear.

Between these main lines, we can find multiple smaller ditches lines are barbed wire lines. This strategy is cutting the frontline : Image
We now have multiple squares and rectangles between main and secondary lines.

The frontline is literraly cut in pieces, the black ones are the finished/expected ones and the grey the larger ones, behind, that will be later cut in between. Image
Read 16 tweets
Feb 14
Contre-attaque victorieuse pour l'Ukraine 🇺🇦

Après plusieurs semaines de contre-attaques, l'armée ukrainienne a repris le contrôle de larges territoires disputés dont ~12 villages dans l'est de l'oblast de Zaporizhia.

L'armée russe 🇷🇺 a été repoussée.

🧵THREAD🧵1/18 ⬇️Image
Profitant de la suspension de Starling à l'armée russe (qui permettait de faire voler les drones russes et de communiquer) et de Telegram, l'armée ukrainienne a lancé une série de contre-attaques locales dans le secteur de Ternuvate et Pokrovsk'e, à l'est de Zaporizhia. Image
Les ukrainiens ont utilisé d'importants moyens mécanisés, une première depuis plusieurs mois, profitant notamment des mauvaises conditions météorologiques et de la suspension de Starlink qui empêchent les drones de voler.

Ces assauts ont eu lieu à l'ouest du côté de Ternuvate. Image
Read 21 tweets
Feb 12
I now managed to map 24 000 russian 🇷🇺 and ukrainian 🇺🇦 artillery strikes from the Dnipro to the russian border.

With this map, I'll show you exactly where Russia is putting its biggest offensive efforts and where Ukraine is counter-attacking.

🧵THREAD🧵1/20⬇️Image
With 12k artillery (and airstrikes) found last week, I now added 12k more, including 8k more in the same area as last week (Dnipro to Kostiantynivka).

This work is entirely volunteer and free, I mapped those 24 000 dots by myself.

You can support here : buymeacoffee.com/clement.molinImage
Most of the artillery strikes impacts are concentrated in 4 main areas :

-Hulialpole/Pokrovsk'e : 8 000 !
-Pokrovsk/Dobropilla : 7 000 !
-Siversk : 1 200
-Kupiansk : 1 200 Image
Read 20 tweets
Feb 10
Did Ukraine 🇺🇦 launch a counter-offensive in Zaporizhzhia oblast ?

Multiple accounts reported about this, but it is not really the truth.

Most of ukrainian progress happened in the grey zone, taking back villages which Russia 🇷🇺 was not controling.

🧵THREAD🧵1/12 ⬇️Image
The main question is where is the frontline. I already talked about it twice recently, especially with this analysis of shell impacts.

Take a close look on the Ternuvate direction, you can see barely no artillery/air strikes

Image
On these maps from @M0nstas, you can see the big difference on the definition of frontline from a pro-russian source and a pro-ukrainian source. Image
Image
Read 12 tweets

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