A somewhat long thread on the importance of the Ukrainian success in Kupyansk now that even Russian military analysts and correspondents acknowledge that the city is again under Ukrainian control. See below the map from Rybar (with lost positions colored orange.) 1/5 
Putin repeatedly and publicly made outlandish claims about Russian control of Kupyansk, and about the allegedly encircled 15 Ukrainian battalions there. He even dismissed Zelensky’s recent visit to the city entrance as a fake. See Tass stories ⬇️
Why is Kupyansk important? Putin wants to trade the largely rural and insignificant parts of Kharkiv, Sumy and Dnipro regions that Russia currently controls for the major cities in northern Donetsk, as per the Witkoff-Dmitriev plan. Kupyansk, in Kharkiv, would have been the by far biggest of the cities in these areas. Now it is no longer one of Putin’s cards. (3/5)
Why is Kupyansk even more important? After two years of slow but continuous retreats, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have demonstrated that they retain the capacity for a large, sustained counteroffensive— and that territorial losses to Russia are not forever. This undercuts the argument that Kyiv should sign a bad deal immediately because the deal on the table in the future will be even worse. (4/5)
Does this mean that the trend of the overall war has reversed? No, Russia is still advancing, albeit slowly, on other axes, such as Huluaipole in Zaporizhzhia, an area where current frontlines are supposed to be frozen once the Witkoff-Dmitriev plan is agreed. But Kupyansk shows that Ukraine is not about to collapse, and that it has cards to play — and surprises up the sleeve.
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