A somewhat long thread on the importance of the Ukrainian success in Kupyansk now that even Russian military analysts and correspondents acknowledge that the city is again under Ukrainian control. See below the map from Rybar (with lost positions colored orange.) 1/5 Putin repeatedly and publicly made outlandish claims about Russian control of Kupyansk, and about the allegedly encircled 15 Ukrainian battalions there. He even dismissed Zelensky’s recent visit to the city entrance as a fake. See Tass stories ⬇️

Should the West seek to appease Russia to focus on China, a so-called “reverse Kissinger?”
Or should it do a “Deng 2.0,” biding time and hiding intentions with China while focusing its capabilities on Russia?
And is it even possible to treat the interconnected world crises separately?
My big analysis piece in @WSJ today. wsj.com/politics/natio… “One of the things that America should do, from a purely American strategic perspective, is to figure out a way to have a grand bargain with Russia,” argues @MrMaitra “Whether that is doable or not is a difficult question, depending on where Russian red lines lie. But fundamentally it would mean a new security architecture in Europe.”

If you wonder about the historic relationship between Jews and Dagestan: a “Mountain Jewish”community that speaks a language related to Persian and was classified as Tats by the USSR has lived in Dagestan, Chechnya and other parts of North Caucasus since pre-Islamic times (1/3)

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1718690378944332152

With the exception of a thriving community in northern Azerbaijan, the vast majority of “Mountain Jews” left the region, which saw Islamist insurgencies and war in the 1990s and early 2000s. Many went to Israel. (2/3)

Four fundamental assumptions in the Middle East have been upended by the Hamas attack. What are the new rules of game? My page-one analysis piece in today’s @WSJ 🧵(1/n) wsj.com/world/middle-e… 1. The assumptions about Israel’s military and intelligence prowess are gone — perhaps prematurely, as Israel’s military strength, particularly its Air Force, is intact. It’s a Pearl Harbor emotionally, but without losing any ships. (2/n)

Amid Russia’s imperial war on Ukraine, Pope Francis tells Russians to be inspired by their legacy as heirs of “the Great Russia of Peter the Great and Catherine II, of that Great Russian Empire, enlightened, of so much culture and so much humanity.” (1/4) It’s akin to telling Belgians they should honor the legacy of the great humanitarian mission of King Leopold who had brought culture to the Congo. Peter I, whose imperial land grab Putin said he emulates, and Catherine II loom in Ukrainian history as the country’s enslavers. 2/4

How a U.S. Navy noncommissioned officer created a pro-Russian propaganda network that brought to prominence stolen Pentagon files. Our investigation of the Donbass Devushka affair. wsj.com/articles/socia… We spoke with Sarah Bils, a former Navy E7 who retired late last year and the person behind the Donbass Devushka, or Donbas Girl, persona. We also talked to her former Navy colleague.

Kyiv is rife with rumors of a Biden visit today as the city center is shut down except for a huge VIP convoy and officials speak of a surprise trip by important partners. There has been no announcement by the White House or the Ukrainian government. Biden is scheduled to be in Warsaw tomorrow.