1/ Kyrylo Budanov’s appointment as head of the Office of the President appears as continuation of the post-Yermak political transition — one that was temporary frozen during intensive negotiations with the US.
2/ This seems to me more about preparing for the end game of the war and for what follows: elections, elite rebalancing, and a far more turbulent 2026.
3/ Many argue this move will end Budanov’s political career by tying him to compromise, responsibility, and inevitable failures. But Budanov is being placed in a strategic position at a moment of maximum uncertainty — settlement talks, Western pressure, and internal power shifts.
4/ The key question is authority. How much real power can Budanov muster inside OPU — agenda-setting, human resources, security and political messaging — and how effectively he can use it as Yermak is believed to remain in a "back office".
5/ A reminder: Budanov was hesitant to accept the post. Zelensky reportedly courted him for months. The role offers political potential but also serious risk — OPU is uncharted territory and Yermak's centralized legacy.
6/ For Zelensky, the logic is twofold: strengthen his own position and legitimacy heading into 2026, while anchoring the security establishment to the political center at a decisive moment.
7/ Budanov matters here because he bridges domains others do not. He has served as a backchannel to the US, Russia, and Belarus, while simultaneously being labelled a war criminal by Moscow.
8/ He has also been among the security officials cautiously reminding interlocutors that ending the war, sooner rather than later, is in Ukraine’s strategic interest — a sensitive but necessary message.
9/ His appointment helps secure security-state buy-in for what comes next — and ties a formidable political figure to the president. Recent polls suggest both Zaluzhny and Budanov would defeat Zelensky in a second round.
10/ This move is therefore also about managing future competitors — including vis-à-vis Zaluzhnyi — while reducing the risk of fragmentation during transition.
11/ Bottom line: this is not succession yet. It is positioning. Budanov enters the most consequential political role of his career — and the most consequential year for Ukraine since 2022.
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