Thread by @madrid_mike

Venezuelans make up a very small portion of the total U.S. Latino electorate, accounting for approximately 1% of the U.S. Hispanic population as of 2021 data. 

As for voters it’s probably half a percent above or below that - most of it located in Florida. 🧵

What about Cubans?

Both Cubans and Dominicans each make up less than 7% of eligible Latino voters. 

Again, Cubans are most determinative in Florida.

So will the Venezuelan situation impact the Latino vote?

If there is an impact nationally it certainly won’t have anything to do with Latino affinity across national origin or sympathies for or against ‘socialism’.

That’s Cold War nonsense usually espoused by a small handful of anti-communists from those countries & I agree with them

At best this likely translates into the growing concerns about ‘government over reach’ and the broader American concern about Trumps extra-Constitutional actions.

So yes, these actions could marginally impact the Latino vote but not the way most think.

Latino voter motivation remains overwhelmingly a function of Trumps failures on the economy - vastly outpacing immigration, Venezuela military action and yes, even ICE raids.

The GOP mantra that Latinos hate socialism isn’t backed up by data - doesn’t mean we’re for it either.

Finally, for perspective if you’re looking for the impact of Cubans and Venezuelan voters moving for and against Trump because of this action, cost of living, ICE, etc… That’s 2-3% of the national Latino vote - at most - most of which is in Florida.