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Jan 5 13 tweets 3 min read Read on X
1/ Russian special forces veterans say that the US operation in Venezuela was no big deal and they could easily have done the same with their own superior capabilities. However, they haven't attempted to kidnap Zelenskyy because of their respect for international law. ⬇️ Image
2/ Veterans of the Russian Alpha Group, an elite special forces (spetsnaz) unit of the Federal Security Service (FSB), have been speaking about their impressions of the US capture of former President Nicolás Maduro. They say it was competent but unimpressive.
3/ FSB colonel and former Alpha Group veteran Vitaly Demidkin says: "They acted illegally, inhumanely, and unlawfully, but probably in a normal way. I think that, on the whole, the operation was not that impressive, but rather mediocre."
4/ "There was no resistance, they quickly entered, apparently bribed everyone, found corrupt people, and that was it: they opened the doors."

Igor Senin, another Alpha Group veteran, is similarly unimpressed:
5/ "It didn't take much thought, because the operation was prepared on a grand scale: first, all the infrastructure was taken out, all the main combat points and military facilities that could offer resistance were suppressed. Only then was the main capture itself prepared...
6/ "In other words, they basically entered a building that had already been prepared for them. I don't see any particular professionalism here."

Demidkin says that the Alpha Group is far superior to the US Delta Force, which reportedly carried out the capture of Maduro:
7/ "Our guys are better in every way. In the number of operations, the number of rescued citizens and hostages. They act in seconds, freeing planes, houses, and apartments. And our spirit is probably stronger.
8/ "After all, we fought and continue to fight not for money, but for people in need."

He hasn't heard of Delta Force achieving much of anything before, but would be happy to "meet them somewhere. I mean, on the battlefield or in some other operation."
9/ Both veterans say that the Alpha Group could easily capture President Zelenskyy if ordered to, but Russia hasn't done this for political reasons. Senin says:

"First of all, it's politics. If they'd given the order to carry out such work, it would have been done long ago."
10/ "Just about four months ago, our veteran guys captured about three FBI and CIA agents. No one even managed to resist."

Demidkin is similarly confident: "We could simply kidnap Zelenskyy, but we're complying with international law. So, we're not taking that action yet."
11/ "But if there's an order from the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, I think it's a no-brainer. Study him, track him down, and quietly take him."
12/ (As a reminder, the Russian mercenary group Redut tried to do exactly this on 25 February 2022, but was wiped out in the attempt.)

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More from @ChrisO_wiki

May 4
1/ Oil prices will rise to at least $140 per barrel by June if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened by July, and will not return to pre-Iran War levels before 2028 even in a best-case scenario, predicts Goldman Sachs. It warns of price surges and major economic impacts. ⬇️ Image
2/ A new report from Goldman Sachs predicts that 14.5 million barrels per day of production have been lost in April 2026. Global stockpiles are being drained at a record 11-12 mb/d which, as JP Morgan has noted, risks a cliff-edge drop in oil supplies.
3/ The longer the blockade continues, the worse the damage becomes. Goldman predicts that in all but the best-case scenario, there will be permanent reductions ("scarring") in Gulf oil production of between 0.5 mb/d and 2.5 mb/d.
Read 25 tweets
May 3
1/ This is what $200 per barrel of oil would mean for US gas prices, which currently average $4.30 per gallon. It could go much higher. As one analyst says, once oil stockpiles are functionally exhausted by the end of May, "price increases become exponential rather than linear." Image
2/ The exponential point is reached at $250 per barrel, which is well within the range of realistic possibilities predicted by many analysts. Linearity breaks down because of:
3/ ♦️ Refinery margin blowouts — refineries pass through higher feedstock costs at elevated rates under stress

♦️ Speculation and panic premiums — markets take fright and price in fear, not just fundamentals
Read 19 tweets
May 2
1/ The world faces a catastrophic cliff-edge shortage of oil due to the Strait of Hormuz blockade in the next four weeks, analysts warn. This will cause a deep recession, fuel rationing, the shutdown of entire industries, and oil prices potentially as high as $370 per barrel. ⬇️ Image
2/ A month ago, JP Morgan published a report highlighting that the last oil shipments from the Persian Gulf countries would be delivered by 20th April. That date has come and gone, and oil shipments via the Strait of Hormuz have not resumed.
3/ Limited amounts of Gulf oil have continued to be pumped via pipelines to ports on the Red Sea and Arabian Sea. However, instead of producing enough oil supply to meet global demand, the world has been relying on emergency stockpiles. Image
Read 26 tweets
May 2
1/ Russia faces being surrounded by Europe's mightiest power - the United Kingdom. In a commentary that highlights Russian nationalists' peculiar obsession with Britain, a warblogger predicts doom unless a military alliance is formed with China, North Korea, and Iran. ⬇️ Image
2/ 'Tungsten' writes:

""Azerbaijan, right next door, is beginning joint production with Ukraine of anti-drone systems, FPV drones, and naval unmanned aerial vehicles.

Britain's southern thrust is on our North Caucasus through Armenia."
3/ "Norway, Denmark, and Sweden, together with Ukraine, will begin producing air defence systems and equipment for combat operations in the Arctic and North Atlantic, along the border with Russia, starting in June of this year.
Read 6 tweets
May 1
1/ Russian soldiers in the Kherson region complain that they've been forbidden to shoot down Ukrainian drones. This may be related to Russians elsewhere shooting down their own drones, sticking swastikas on the wings, and claiming they're Ukrainian. ⬇️
2/ A soldier writes to the 'Svarschiki' Telegram channel:

"Hello, I’m from the Kherson direction. Over us, the asshole fart-planes constantly fly by, their wings roam completely freely, and at night the Bony One [Death] does whatever the hell it wants…"
3/ "Three months ago we proposed to the command the idea of air defence against airplane-type drones and training the crews at the training ground.
Read 7 tweets
May 1
1/ There will never be a better time than now to attack Europe, says a prominent Russian warblogger. Alexey Zhivov says that victory in Ukraine is slipping away, so Russia needs to act like Iran and attack all the facilities in the EU that are being used to help Ukraine. ⬇️ Image
2/ Zhivov calls 2026 "A Window of Opportunity, or Why Ukraine's Allies Need to Be Attacked Now." He envisages Russia carrying out Europe-wide missile attacks against factories and bases which are supporting Ukraine's war effort, while relying on Trump not helping Europe:
3/ "King Charles of Great Britain's visit to the United States and his address to Congress demonstrated that Trump has lost influence over the Ukrainian peace process since November. With the Republicans' defeat [in November], Trump will finally "wash his hands of the situation."
Read 21 tweets

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