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Jan 5 13 tweets 3 min read Read on X
1/ Russian special forces veterans say that the US operation in Venezuela was no big deal and they could easily have done the same with their own superior capabilities. However, they haven't attempted to kidnap Zelenskyy because of their respect for international law. ⬇️ Image
2/ Veterans of the Russian Alpha Group, an elite special forces (spetsnaz) unit of the Federal Security Service (FSB), have been speaking about their impressions of the US capture of former President Nicolás Maduro. They say it was competent but unimpressive.
3/ FSB colonel and former Alpha Group veteran Vitaly Demidkin says: "They acted illegally, inhumanely, and unlawfully, but probably in a normal way. I think that, on the whole, the operation was not that impressive, but rather mediocre."
4/ "There was no resistance, they quickly entered, apparently bribed everyone, found corrupt people, and that was it: they opened the doors."

Igor Senin, another Alpha Group veteran, is similarly unimpressed:
5/ "It didn't take much thought, because the operation was prepared on a grand scale: first, all the infrastructure was taken out, all the main combat points and military facilities that could offer resistance were suppressed. Only then was the main capture itself prepared...
6/ "In other words, they basically entered a building that had already been prepared for them. I don't see any particular professionalism here."

Demidkin says that the Alpha Group is far superior to the US Delta Force, which reportedly carried out the capture of Maduro:
7/ "Our guys are better in every way. In the number of operations, the number of rescued citizens and hostages. They act in seconds, freeing planes, houses, and apartments. And our spirit is probably stronger.
8/ "After all, we fought and continue to fight not for money, but for people in need."

He hasn't heard of Delta Force achieving much of anything before, but would be happy to "meet them somewhere. I mean, on the battlefield or in some other operation."
9/ Both veterans say that the Alpha Group could easily capture President Zelenskyy if ordered to, but Russia hasn't done this for political reasons. Senin says:

"First of all, it's politics. If they'd given the order to carry out such work, it would have been done long ago."
10/ "Just about four months ago, our veteran guys captured about three FBI and CIA agents. No one even managed to resist."

Demidkin is similarly confident: "We could simply kidnap Zelenskyy, but we're complying with international law. So, we're not taking that action yet."
11/ "But if there's an order from the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, I think it's a no-brainer. Study him, track him down, and quietly take him."
12/ (As a reminder, the Russian mercenary group Redut tried to do exactly this on 25 February 2022, but was wiped out in the attempt.)

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More from @ChrisO_wiki

Apr 8
1/ Iran faces very serious problems even if the currently paused war ends with an agreement, warns Russian political scientist Nikolai Sevostyanov. While many Russians are celebrating the Iranian 'victory', Sevostyanov says the hardest part is still ahead. ⬇️ Image
2/ Guest-writing on the 'Voenkor Kotenok' Telegram channel, Sevostyanov says:
3/ "The Iranians are the clear winners today.Trump raised the stakes as high as they could go and then backed down; the Islamic Republic has preserved its territorial integrity;…
Read 22 tweets
Apr 8
1/ With a ceasefire now apparently in place in the Gulf, Iran has a golden opportunity to rearm – most likely with the aid of Russia, its main supplier of weapons since 2015. A Russian warblogger calls for missiles and drones to be rushed to Iran to prepare for a new war. ⬇️ Image
2/ While Iran's own military production capabilities have likely been severely damaged, it can almost certainly turn to Russia, which is only about 500 km (310 miles) away across the Caspian Sea. The two have extensively traded weapons in both directions.
3/ From 2015-20, Russia supplied 98% of Iran's arms imports, and in 2020–24 it was Iran's sole official supplier. Over the last decade, Iran's imports of Russian arms have included air defence systems, missiles, aircraft, and sensors.
Read 13 tweets
Apr 7
1/ Not to be outdone by the US Artemis II mission, Russia is reported to be rushing out its own plan to carve out territories on the moon. However, as a Russian political commentator observes, Russia's space capabilities have degenerated to the point that this is mere fantasy. ⬇️ Image
2/ Russia (and the Soviet Union before it, which envisaged the moon base shown above back in 1962) has long dreamed of establishing a presence on the moon. However, lack of funds and technological shortfalls have long prevented this.
3/ At a closed meeting of the Presidium of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Academician Sergei Chernyshev bluntly stated that the federal "Space Science" project is intended to "establish sovereign Russian territories on the lunar surface." Image
Read 19 tweets
Apr 7
1/ The Russian army has switched to indigenously-produced Spirit-030 terminals to replace its blocked Starlink terminals. However, a Russian soldier and warblogger says it is far inferior, with poor latency and significant vulnerability to jamming. ⬇️
2/ Spirit-030 is a compact, portable Russian military satellite communication terminal designed as a tactical alternative to systems like Starlink. It provides secure satellite-based voice, data, and internet connectivity for frontline Russian forces.
3/ It features a small 30 cm diameter antenna, significantly smaller and more portable than earlier Russian terminals that used 90 cm dishes. This reduces its visual and electronic signature, making it harder to detect and target.
Read 13 tweets
Apr 7
1/ Many scenarios for the end of the Iran war suggest that Tehran will gain permanent control of the Strait of Hormuz. An analysis by JP Morgan suggests that Tehran could raise up to $90 billion a year this way, instantly making Iran one of the wealthiest Gulf economies. ⬇️ Image
2/ Iran’s parliamentary National Security and Foreign Policy Committee recently approved an eight-point "Strait of Hormuz Management Plan" that codifies the so-called 'Tehran Tollbooth' into Iranian law.
3/ Michael Cembalest of JP Morgan writes in a new briefing paper for subscribers that under this new plan, "Iran proposes to charge 100 – 130 vessels per day $2 mm each, which would amount to $70 – $90 bn per year in revenues (!!)"
Read 9 tweets
Apr 7
1/ Russian warbloggers warn of an alarming development: Ukraine's long-range drone strikes into Russia are reportedly being guided by Starlink connections, which potentially provides drones with precise and unjammable navigation across the entire country. ⬇️ Image
2/ While Starlink is normally a civilian network, Ukraine makes extensive use of it for military purposes, including on the front lines and in sea drones. Until recently, Starlink was blocked in Russia but not in Ukraine, which enabled the Russian military to use it as well.
3/ This changed in February 2026 when Starlink began whitelisting terminals in Ukraine, so that only the Ukrainians could use it. Ukraine also has access to a limited number (reportedly 3,000) of terminals which can access the separate military-oriented Starshield network.
Read 25 tweets

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