Russia has lost its ability to project hard power across the world because of its almost 12-year-long war of aggression against Ukraine.
Since September 2022, Russia's power has continued to erode.
A 🧵on Russia's failures.
1/8
Since September 2022, Russia's power has continued to erode.
A 🧵on Russia's failures.
1/8
September 2022: Armenia makes a CSTO Article IV request for mutual defense after Azerbaijan attacks, which Russia denies. Armenia has ended funding and participation in the CSTO, stabilized relations with Azerbaijan, remains in CSTO in name only, and recently called for the withdrawal of a small contingent of Russian forces still in the country.
2/8
2/8
November 2024: Uprising in Syria to depose dictator Bashir al-Assad - Assad asks Russia for ammunition, but all he gets is a ride, regime collapses, Russia withdraws forces and equipment, loses access to Khmeimim Air Base, and has military and commercial contracts at the vital Tartus Naval Base suspended. Moscow loses its ability to project power into the Mediterranean.
3/8
3/8
July 2024: Remnants of PMC Wagner Group in name only - now part of the Russian National Guard Africa Corps, ambushed at Tinzaouanten in Mali, 50 to 80 Russians killed, a helicopter is shot down, 6 MRAPs and 14 trucks destroyed. It's the worst Russian defeat outside of Ukraine since Conoco Fields in Syria.
4/8
4/8
April 2025: United States threatens to destroy Iran’s nuclear weapons program if Tehran doesn’t comply with earlier agreements. Iran asks for Russian help, and Russian deepens cooperation and military ties. The U.S. and Israel bomb Iran in June 2025, and Russia does nothing. Additionally, Russian air defense systems were completely ineffective.
5/8
5/8
June 2025: PMC Wagner remnants declare "mission accomplished" in Mali and withdraw in August, replaced by regular Russian troops, with the National Guard Africa Corps. The security situation rapidly deteriorates in the Sahel as Muslim extremists blow up fuel convoys, causing an energy crisis.
6/8
6/8
December 2025: Sudanese government “pauses” earlier agreement with Russia to build a Navy Base at Port Sudan due to ongoing Civil War. Prior to 2024, PMC Wagner Group supported/trained/armed the RSF from 2017 to November 2023.
7/8
7/8
January 2026: United States launched a 3-hour “special military operation” in Venezuela and exfiltrated dictator Nicolas Maduro, two months after Russia pledged to assist Venezuelan security. Putin hides in a bunker, Ramzan "don-don" Kaydrov makes idle threats, and Russian milbloggers complain the only successful exfiltration in Ukraine was a raccoon from the Kherson Zoo.
8/8
8/8
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