Sam Greene Profile picture
Jan 9 21 tweets 3 min read Read on X
I study authoritarianism for a living, so I do not say this lightly: America isn't facing an authoritarian future. America is living an authoritarian present.

(A long 🧵)

/1
Hollywood would have us believe that authoritarianism wins when Voldemort takes over Hogwarts or Sauron conquers Gondor. But that's wrong. There are no pitched battles between good and evil. Democracy dies in banality and plain daylight, not glory and darkness.

/2
Power is a process, not a thing someone holds. Authoritarian power is thus a process in which we decide not to defend ourselves -- because it's risky, uncertain, or just inconvenient.

Authoritarianism wins every day citizens decide not to fight. To wait. To watch.

/3
Authoritarianism wins every day citizens believe that they can't win, because the deck is stacked against them -- and so authoritarians bluster.

That they can't win, because they don't have enough allies -- and so authoritarians atomize.

/4
Authoritarianism wins every day citizens believe that they don't need to fight, because things aren't that bad -- and so authoritarians lie.

That they don't need to fight, because the fight doesn't concern them -- ad so authoritarians divide.

/5
Authoritarianism wins every day decide to wait until the moment is right -- and so authoritarians hedge and feint.

Authoritarianism wins every day citizens take a day off -- and so authoritarians never rest.

/6
Authoritarians don't win because they control the guns or the media or the courts or the streets.

Authoritarians win because they control imaginations. Because they make it impossible for citizens to imagine solidarity. To imagine justice. To imagine victory.

/7
When an authoritarian lays siege to institutions or universities or the streets of our cities, those are not his targets. He's laying siege to our imaginations.

He's teaching us that no place is safe.

/8
When an authoritarian runs roughshod over Congress or the Courts, those are not his targets. He's running roughshod over our imaginations.

He's teaching us that we cannot withstand.

/9
When an authoritarian excoriates his opponents as radicals and extremists, those are not his targets. He's excoriating our imaginations.

He's teaching us that we are alone.

/10
But the authoritarian is not the architect of authoritarianism.

Authoritarianism is forged by his acolytes, who sacrifice autonomy in the name of power.

It is forged by his opponents, who hedge in the name of prudence.

It is forged by his citizens, who cower.

/11
There is no power in supplication. No opposition in prudence. No citizenship in cowering. There is no safe resistance, no part-time rebellion. Alas, these lessons are generally learned late.

/12
Once authoritarianism takes root, it is extraordinarily hard to dislodge -- not because it corrodes institutions, but because it corrodes imaginations. People forget with remarkable speed that another kind of life was possible. And they cease to seek it.

/13
Authoritarians persist in power not because they are loved, or even because they are feared, but because people stop believing that a better alternative is possible. Once lost, that belief is very hard to rekindle.

/14
I'll be honest with you: I'm not sure that belief exists in America right now. Americans, by and large, stopped resisting long before Minneapolis. There was no real movement to protect reproductive rights. BLM fell well short of making Black lives really matter.

/15
I don't mean to denigrate the people who have been protesting ICE for months, or who risked their lives for BLM. Their dedication is beyond question.

I do, however, mean to denigrate the hundreds of millions of other people--myself included, honestly--who did not stand up.

/16
America's government has claimed the right to ignore its own laws. To invade neighborhoods with military force. To prosecute its opponents. To dehumanize. To kill.

Anger without action is not resistance.

/17
Resistance *is* possible. We're seeing it right now in Iran. Even in states where authoritarian violence and control are much greater than in America, people can paralyze a system and reengineer the process of power. But resistance requires risk.

/18
Resistance requires putting yourself in harm's way. Taking an economic hit. Making a real sacrifice to demonstrate solidarity to someone who has no other reason to trust you. Resistance isn't protest. It's persistent disruption and non-compliance. And it's imagination.

/19
Americans have tremendous advantages: Decentralized elections. A diverse media. Independent civil society. Resistance requires recognizing that these are vestiges of a system that needs to be rebuilt, rather than insurance against an authoritarianism that is already here.

/20
So, no, authoritarianism isn't on the brink of winning in America. It won yesterday. It won today. Unless something changes, it will win tomorrow.

But it doesn't have to.

/END

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More from @samagreene

Dec 5, 2025
European priorities for Trump’s new National Security Strategy:

() whitehouse.gov/wp-content/upl…Image
Kinda puts this reporting into context:
And this. If you thought the Musk/Vance interventions were a passing fad, maybe think again. Image
Read 4 tweets
Aug 18, 2025
For six months now, European leaders have confused Trump‘s malleability for an opportunity. What it really means is that US policy is not the foundation on which European and Ukrainian security can be built.

A quick thread

/1
First things first: if we’ve learned anything thus far, it’s that we should give it 12-18 hours before drawing conclusions about anything involving Trump and Putin. Not that that will stop anybody.

Thus, my way too early take is that … I’m nervous.

/2
The apocalyptic scenario—another blowup in the Oval Office—was avoided, and that’s good. But the second worst possible outcome was that the European leaders who accompany Zelenskyy would breathe a sigh of relief, and I’m afraid that may be what we’re seeing.

/3
Read 12 tweets
Apr 22, 2025
Putin's cease-fire offer is an attempt to achieve at the negotiating table what he cannot achieve on the battleground: the neutering of Ukraine as a sovereign entity.

TL;DR: It's not about territorial control.

(A 🧵)

/1
Per reporting from the @FT, Putin is "offering" to halt the war at the current line of control (minus the piece of Kursk obl. still controlled by Ukraine). Conditions appear to be recognition of Crimea and other Ru-occupied territories, plus no NATO.



/2ft.com/content/5d8484…
Not reported are any details on:
1⃣ Security guarantees (including a European force)
2⃣ Sanctions relief
3⃣ Western positions on the territories

On all three, no news ain't good news.

/3
Read 21 tweets
Mar 1, 2025
What we learned yesterday: nothing we didn’t know, if we were paying attention.

What we’ll learn this weekend: whether European leaders have been paying attention.

(A 🧵)

/1
It was abundantly clear that the US administration would be guided by the following “principles” (I use the word hesitantly):
1️⃣🇺🇸 transactional interests trump all others
2️⃣ The velocity of exit from 🇺🇦 trumps the quality of exit
3️⃣ Normalization with🇷🇺 is a priority

/2
Following from these “principles” are 3 logical conclusions:
1️⃣ 🇺🇸 is unperturbed by the geo-strategic consequences of its exit from 🇺🇦
2️⃣ 🇺🇸 feels it has greater leverage over 🇺🇦 than 🇷🇺
3️⃣ the only route to a rapid exit is thus for 🇺🇦 to make maximum concessions

/3
Read 11 tweets
Feb 13, 2025
Ok folks, deep breaths.

There is very real reason to worry about the dynamic emerging between Washington and Moscow when it comes to Ukraine. But there is also very real reason to believe that Ukraine and Europe can create a better outcome.

(A rather long 🧵, obviously)

/1
First, let's start with the bad news: The Trump administration is handling the start of this process just about as badly as it is possible to do. There is no way to sugar coat that, nor should anyone try.

I'll focus on three low-lights.

/2
Low-light 1: After Waltz and Kellogg spent weeks talking up a strategy of "maximum pressure" on Russia and building trust in Europe and Kyiv, POTUS threw that out the window by announcing unconditional bilateral talks with Putin.

/3
Read 29 tweets
Aug 3, 2024
Yashin, Kara-Murza and Pivovarov have been abundantly clear that Russia’s war is criminal and that Ukraine should win. They went to jail for that clarity. Criticizing them for not repeating it is disingenuous.

But they need to understand the genuineness of Ukrainian anger.

/1
The nuances of the Russian opposition’s arguments on sanctions and Russian public opinion cannot bring security to Ukraine, and Ukrainians justifiably worry that a focus on dreams of Russian democracy will distract from helping Ukraine win the war.

/2
Indeed, the West has a bad habit of taking shots in the dark on Russian politics rather than focusing on shoring up Ukraine’s ability to defend itself, as I wrote here:

/3foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/black-…
Read 5 tweets

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