Thread by @Alfoneh

The Islamic Republic is under intense pressure, but its collapse is not imminent. A few key points:

1. Widely loathed by the public, Ayatollah @khamenei_ir has for some time been more of a liability than an asset for the regime.

2. Due to his advanced age and persistent security concerns—including the risk of assassination—Khamenei is increasingly isolated and largely removed from day-to-day strategic decision-making.

3. Real power now rests with a de-facto leadership council composed of the president, the speaker of parliament, the head of the judiciary, and senior representatives from the IRGC and the regular army.

4. This collective leadership has shown relative restraint in its handling of the protests so far. However, it lacks the capacity to meaningfully improve living standards in the short term—and therefore cannot credibly persuade protesters to return home.

5. The nationwide internet shutdown marks a new phase. It significantly degrades the ability of @IranIntl and similar outlets to mobilize, coordinate, and shape protest dynamics, while also enabling harsher repression away from public scrutiny.

@IranIntl 6. Even if the regime succeeds in suppressing the current protests through force, Iran’s structural economic crisis will persist. As a result, renewed unrest is likely in the near future.

@IranIntl 7. Faced with this dilemma, the de-facto collective leadership may pursue a “Venezuelan” survival strategy: get rid of @khamenei_ir, reaching out to Trump, seeking sanctions relief, inviting U.S. oil companies back into Iran, stabilizing the economy, and preserving the system.

@IranIntl @khamenei_ir 8. This scenario is plausible: the IRGC is fundamentally different from the Shah’s Imperial Army, which collapsed after the Shah left Iran.

@IranIntl @khamenei_ir 9. Furthermore, @realDonaldTrump is hesitating to recognize Mr. Reza Pahlavi: “I think that we should let everybody go out there and see who emerges,” he said yesterday. This may indicate the president's preference for a Venezuelan solution.

@IranIntl @khamenei_ir @realDonaldTrump 10. Absent a deal with @realDonaldTrump, the regime is likely to face defections within the security services and armed forces, accelerating its collapse.