The Islamic Republic is under intense pressure, but its collapse is not imminent. A few key points:

1. Widely loathed by the public, Ayatollah @khamenei_ir has for some time been more of a liability than an asset for the regime. 2. Due to his advanced age and persistent security concerns—including the risk of assassination—Khamenei is increasingly isolated and largely removed from day-to-day strategic decision-making.

1. "Netanyahu's war on Iran is perilous on so many levels" @TheNationalNews (Abu Dhabi) June 16, 2025. tinyurl.com/2dmwjjxz 2. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has launched a high-stakes military campaign against Iran – an initiative that not only undermines US President Donald Trump’s stated objective of negotiating a diplomatic resolution to Iran’s nuclear programme, but also risks entangling the Americans in another protracted conflict in the Middle East.

1. Dr. @JZarif's "Reflections on Eight Years as Foreign Minister" (2024) is one of the most, if not the most important, contribution to understanding Iran's foreign policy under the Islamic Republic. Here a few remarkable points: 2. Under President @HassanRouhani "many vital decisions were made by a small group in the secretariat of the Supreme National Security Council [SNSC] without the Foreign Minister, an official member of the SNSC, being privy to them."

1. On the Morality Police: For the Islamic Republic, survival trumps ideology. The legislators don't have the courage to change the hijab law, but the regime has for some time stopped enforcing it due to the extraordinary friction it causes between state and society. 2. On the Morality Police: The IRGC and its political allies soon identified the Morality Police as the cause of the ongoing protests, and called for its dismantling. This, I believe, was the first public attempt of the IRGC to distance itself from the unpopular Shia clergy.

1. @bbcpersian's release of a @FarsNews_Agency bulletin, most likely produced for IRGC, is receiving delayed commentary. My comment: While the Shah only received sanitized intelligence reports from SAVAK, IRGC has access to excellent intelligence today. bbc.in/3iBRsBg 2. The Pahlavi regime was a personalist dictatorship, centered around the person of Shah Mohammad-Reza Pahlavi. The Islamic Republic, on the other hand, is a highly institutionalized regime with competing centers of power. Failure of one center does not result in regime collapse.

"En Iran, le pouvoir des gardiens de la révolution transforme progressivement le pays en une dictature militaire" Yours truly extensively quoted in @madjze & @GhazalGolshiri's piece in @lemondefr (Paris) October 27, 2022. bit.ly/3Fh1AZH (1) My comments to @lemondefr: Ayatollah @khamenei_ir believes the Pahlavi regime collapsed when the Shah gave concessions to the protesters in 1979. This is why Khamenei, and the regime, rather than giving concessions to protesters, will suppress the protests.

(1) Yours truly debating @barbaraslavin1 & @AlexVatanka at @MidEastPolicy's Iran conference earlier today Oct 21st: In the course of the past 44 years, the Islamic Republic modernized the Iranian society, but was unwilling or incapable of adapting its politics to societal change. (2) According to the World Bank & IRI: Literacy rate in 1978: 50% - in 2022: 90%. Adult Female literacy rate in 1976: 24% - in 2016: 81%. Adult Female Tertiary School Enrollment in 1978%: 3% - in 2020: 57%. Percentage of female enrollment in universities in 2022: 60%!