Crémieux Profile picture
Jan 13 8 tweets 4 min read Read on X
American military veterans have a suicide problem.

Some have theorized the reason is deployment-related trauma.

Leveraging the random assignment of new soldiers to units with different deployment cycles, Bruhn et al. found that was wrong.

Deployment did not increase suicides. Image
Looking only at violent deployments (ones with peer casualties), there aren't noncombat mortality effects either.

What explains veteran suicide rates? Image
The reason seems to be that the proposition is wrong: veterans do not have increased suicide risk.

This may seem surprising, but it's not!

Their suicide rates are elevated over the general population because most of them are young White men. That group has a suicide issue. Image
There are good and bad parts to this observation.

On the one hand, it means that there is not selection of suicidal people into the military.

On the other, demographic selection makes this problem into one that agencies like the VA will probably not be able to fix on their own.
Because it's not a soldier problem, it's a young White male problem.

I don't know how this can be fixed, but presumably tackling opiate use would help.

Soliman (2022) found that DEA crackdowns on overprescribing pharmacies resulted in fewer local suicide deaths. Image
Soliman also found that sanctioning specific doctors affected opioid-related mortality more generally without impacting suicide rates.

Effects were generally larger for males than females and they were larger for people aged 30-49 than those aged 15-29 or 85+. No race data.
Kennedy-Hendricks et al. found that Florida's pill mill crackdown reduced opioid overdose mortality considerably.

It's suggestive evidence that this problem *can* be helped, at least a bit. Image

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More from @cremieuxrecueil

Jun 30
Amy Wax got in trouble for remarking that she'd not seen a Black student in the top quarter of a Penn Law class.

Thanks to hacked Columbia data, we can see that she was...

Probably right!

In the decade before her statement, there were just two top-25% Black students. Image
It is *totally* plausible that she never met these students. And it's also plausible that she rarely saw Black students in the top *half*, because each year, the number of them was just 1-4.

But, despite being 8% of the class, they were ~40% of the bottom 10%-ranked students: Image
Note: Penn is on-par/slightly less elite than Columbia, so it's likely that the Black students there were somewhat *worse*, as the article notes, making her claims more likely.

This all comes from @zagrebbi's latest article. It's well worth a read!

Link: rightrationalism.art/p/black-law-st…
Read 4 tweets
Jun 30
And there it is:

The Supreme Court has decided to maintain Birthright Citizenship.
Big day if you think Roe v. Wade was correctly decided.

My favorite part (note that I've only read 150 pages so far) was Thomas explaining that, no, the Founding g Fathers did not adopt the English feudal system.

This fact was clearly lost on the other side. Image
The Court's reliance on a random remark from a case that ultimately didn't even produce lasting changes raises the question of whether that sort of thing even matters.

Why shouldn't I cite the Dred Scott case as the law of the land? Image
Image
Read 4 tweets
Jun 26
The medical community has cured a mountain of diseases in the past several decades.

Diseases cured thread🧵

In 2013, hepatitis C was cured by direct-acting antivirals. Image
Peptic ulcers are now curable in more than 90% of patients via antibiotic triple/quad therapy (1994). Image
Sickle cell anemia was cured in 2023 for >96% of patients. Image
Read 22 tweets
Jun 9
Because America has made the wise decision to compensate blood donors, it has ended up supplying some 70% of the world's blood plasma.

This is one of America's top exports, and each year, America saves hundreds of thousands of lives because it does this. Image
Some people argue against plasma donation on the basis of it being disproportionately used by poorer people

They say it's exploitative: they feel that selling something your body makes is wrong if disparate in ways they care about

But it's a lifesaver!

There's also research indicating that plasma donation can be healthy!

(And there's more indicating that, with compensation, it might reduce crime in the local area.)

Read 4 tweets
Jun 7
It's Pride Month, so let's talk about why San Francisco is so incredibly gay.

Military policy.

🧵 Image
In 1982, Randy Shilts published his biography of Harvey Milk, entitled "The Mayor of Castro Street".

For those who don't know, Harvey Milk was the first open homosexual to be voted into public office in the state of California.

He was on the San Francisco Board of Supervisors. Image
The biography contains a fair bit of background, not just about Harvey Milk, but about San Francisco's gay community more generally.

In its early years, San Francisco attracted large waves of mainly male migrants motivated by the promise of gold in California. Image
Read 18 tweets
Jun 1
My Uber driver says

- His license is suspended
- He was once a soldier for a Mafia family
- He's telling me about his time in Rikers
- He's showing me YouTube videos
- He's telling me his theories about Jews
He's telling me about gang wars he was in ad a kid.

He's wondering why all the Chinese girls are lined up - for an audition?

He says to go to Mother's Ruin for latin prostitutes.

All of this entirely unprompted.
"Yeah, these African guys, yeesh"

"I couldn't fuck that whore because I got the erectile dysfunction."

He just keeps going.
Read 6 tweets

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