1/ Russian convicts are refusing en masse to join the army, even to serve as officers, according to Igor 'Strelkov' Girkin. He says that nobody believes the Russian Ministry of Defence's promises any more and recruiters are unable to persuade men to go to their deaths. ⬇️
2/ Girkin, a former FSB officer who is currently imprisoned for 'extremism' (i.e. criticising the war effort for being insufficient), writes:
"Today, the military came by to recruit volunteers for the "assault" for officer positions."
3/ "They spoke with me, but again, they simply shrugged their shoulders: recruiting those with "extremist" charges is prohibited. And no one else (except me) has expressed any interest in joining for a long time.
4/ "They asked, "What does it take for volunteers to appear?" – I answered honestly that no one else believes the Russian Ministry of Defence – they've heard it all before (and many have experienced it firsthand).
5/ "For new people willing to put their lives on the line to emerge, [the right] conditions are needed, roughly like those at Wagner, and a guarantee of their fulfillment (to which the guests sympathetically remained silent).
6/ "I declined their request for recommendation / convincing [other prisoners], saying (also completely honestly) that "...if you're going to persuade people to go to their deaths, you have to go yourself, and if they don't take me, then how can I call anyone to the slaughter?"
7/ "They also sympathetically remained silent—since both visitors (this time) behaved decently and both had fought well, evident from their stories and their demeanor. He also told them that "many are ready to go and fight upon mobilisation" (and that's also true)."
8/ It should be noted that Girkin is not being held in an ordinary prison, but reportedly is in the IK-5 penal colony in Kirovo-Chepetsk in the Kirov region, which specialises in holding ex-security officials.
9/ As such, it might be expected to be a good recruiting ground for army officers. However, with Russian losses running at an estimated 20,000-25,000 a month, many prisoners have unsurprisingly chosen to wait out their sentences instead. /end
1/ The developers of the Russian heavy bomber drone 'Kukushka' have been sent to their deaths en masse, according to the father of one of the men. He says they were deliberately killed as they were regarded as 'inconveniences' by their commanders. ⬇️
2/ Alexander Igorevich Anorin has recorded a video accusing commanders in the 102nd Motorised Rifle Regiment (military unit 91706) of sending a group of UAV developers to their deaths in assaults against Ukrainian positions.
3/ He says the commander of the regiment's 2nd Batallion, Boris Borisovich Kravchenko, call sign "Azak," and the regiment's deputy political officer, Samvel Karapetyan, sent the drone developers to die in an assault near Poltavka in the Zaporizhzhia region in July 2025.
1/ Recent satellite images showing dozens of Iranian fast boats in formation in the Strait of Hormuz illustrate Iran's ability to lay naval mines in the strait. An Iranian export catalogue highlights its many indigenously produced mine types. ⬇️
2/ Iran is said to possess a huge stockpile of naval mines, potentially as many as 5,000-6,000. It has systematically made preparations over decades to mine the Strait of Hormuz, which it can do using small boats, aircraft, or even rockets.
3/ Iran has hundreds of small-displacement combat boats, many of which can be used for anti-shipping attacks and mine-laying, some at very high speeds. For example, the recently developed Haidar 110 can reach speeds of up to 110 knots (126 mph / 203 km/h).
1/ Russia's growing economic and social problems, exacerbated by the government's own policies, are causing even loyal pro-Putin commentators to warn of a looming crisis. Yuri Baranchik warns that people are increasingly blaming the government for making their lives worse. ⬇️
2/ Baranchik comments in an analysis on his Telegram channel that "the system is increasingly struggling to cope with its own weight", and says that Russians are increasingly unhappy that growing state repression is now affecting them personally.
3/ "Since there is no shortage of analysis of the symptoms of the processes unfolding within the system ... I will attempt to describe the basis of this phenomenon.
1/ Complaints about Internet blocks from Russian Instagram celebrities are obscuring a host of other problems, many caused by the Ukraine war, argues journalist Anastasia Kashevarova. Her long list highlights the increasingly severe difficulties faced by Russia's population. ⬇️
2/ Kashevarova writes:
"About the women's rebellion. I am against gender rebellions and any others, since they are destructive and distract from solving real problems towards confrontation between the sexes, redistribution of spheres of influence, struggle of individuals."
3/ "Here there is no longer any smell of protection of human rights, there is a draining of the painful things and presenting the people's pain in the light of some kind of stupidity and foolishness.
1/ Russia's economic crisis is deepening, with mass layoffs at public sector organisations and heavily indebted state corporations. It's a further sign of the severe strain on the Russian government's finances caused by the Ukraine war, and is a major political risk for Putin. ⬇️
2/ The 'Political Report' Telegram channel highlights the growing scale of the crisis in Russia's state-run bodies. It also notes the political risks that this is creating for the Russian government, which faces growing public hostility towards its policies:
3/ "Russia is plunging into a massive wave of layoffs and reductions, which is hitting public sector employees and state corporations particularly hard.
1/ Average gasoline prices in the US could rise to an all-time record of $5.50, and much higher in some states, if the Strait of Hormuz does not reopen by the end of June. Citigroup warns that the world's oil inventories risk falling to record low levels. ⬇️
2/ A new report published by Citi sets out scenarios for the current impasse in the Strait of Hormuz, while other analysts say it could take nine months for things to return to normal even if a peace agreement is signed. Citi's analysts predict three possible outcomes:
3/ 1️⃣ A ceasefire extension is signed this week, oil tanker traffic resumes, flows recover through May, and pre-war levels resume by the end of June. A total of 900 million barrels of oil production is lost since the start of the Iran war.