🧵The announcement by Canadian PM @MarkJCarney of a reset in Canada-China ties accompanied by a trade deal of dramatic proportions will likely go down in history as a major political blunder. But don't listen to me: Premier Doug Ford of Ontario already denounced the deal. 1/9
Anger, however justified, should never be the principal driver of policy. This is true both about our Canadian brethren, and true about our European allies. We are living through a rocky transformation of the international system, but the geopolitical realities remain. 2/9
It is at times like this that we need cooler heads to prevail, and when we need leaders who can focus on the foundational principles of what constitutes our civilization. It defies reason that Canada would invite an Asian communist state to set up shop in North America. 3/9
Canada is culturally a close relative of the United States (we joke that "Canadians are Americans with health insurance."). Canada is vital to US security. Our common border is not much more than a line on the map-we've been always close and connected. These are the realties. 4/9
Economic or cultural issues aside, the United States is critical to the security and defense of Canada. Let's not forget that while Canada's population is only around 42 million, it is the world's second-largest country by total area covering approx.3.85 million square miles.5/9
Canada spans nearly half of the North American continent, with the world's longest coastline and six time zones. In a nutshell, Canada needs a strong alliance with United States to ensure national security, and conversely, America needs Canada to secure its neighborhood. 6/9
Alliances are built based on common threats and common interests, with shared values reinforcing if not driving their formation. The US-Canada alliance ticks off all three. So, riddle me this: Why would Canada endanger this alliance by inviting China into our neighborhood? 7/9
Again, anger-justified or not-should never define foundational policy choices. As I always repeat when I speak in Europe: Europeans do not have a relationship with this or that US President, this or that party; they have a vital security relationship with the United States. 8/9
I would say exactly the same thing to our Canadian friends. Let's reflect on how we got to this place and course correct. And I would add that statecraft is never easy, and that we need leaders who can rise up to the challenge because the future of the West is at stake. 9/End
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🧵As I watch US podcasts on the internet about #Russia’s war against #Ukraine what I see increasingly defies reason. Academics like Mearsheimer or Sachs de facto repeat Russian talking points. For years now retired US colonels continue to declare #Ukraine’s imminent end, etc. 1/6
Most of the people who pontificate on Russia have never been outside of Moscow/Petersburg, if that. They don’t speak a word of Russian, nor Ukrainian. Instead, IR theory and, frankly, chutzpah substitute for country expertise as they boldly predict Ukraine’s imminent demise. 2/6
War is not a professor’s seminar on his/her pet IR theory. Service in the US military doesn’t give one genuine expertise on Eurasia. What I find most jarring is the apparent glee with which they claim their views to be strategic gospel. Zero humility. Zero self-reflection. 3/6
🧵I’m sick and tired of those shilling for Putin who constantly repeat that Zelensky hasn’t held a presidential election or that corruption hampers #Ukraine’s defense effort and thereby Kyiv is “not worthy” of America’s support. Get it through your heads: Ukraine is at war. 1/5
#Ukraine is fighting for its very survival not just as a country, but as a nation. Period. I’d like to remind those sanctimonious “Putin explainers” that during World War II FDR introduced several significant abridgments of civil liberties and constitutional rights in the US. 2/5
Look up the EO 9066, the Smith Act of 1940, the Proclamation 2537, Selective Training and Service Act of 1940, etc. We were at war then, and wartime conditions cannot be judged by peacetime requirements. Roosevelt served four terms until his death in 1945 regardless of custom.3/5
🧵POTUS's post that the US will deploy 5K troops to #Poland could be transformative for @NATO. For too long since the end of the Cold War the US force posture in Europe has relied on legacy installations, predominantly in #Germany, and most of all, on legacy assumptions. 1/6
During the Cold War, the US permanently based its military in #Germany because that was the point of contact. In those days, the Bonn Republic was the critical hub of @NATO's eastern flank. US troops served in Germany with families, with an extensive support infrastructure.2/6
Those decades of US forces being based in Germany created a bond of trust, underlying not only mil-mil relations, but also strengthening public support in the US for @NATO and the US pivotal role in it. Today the geostrategic reality is different-#Poland is the new NATO hub. 3/6
I recently complained about US airlines, comparing them to a superior experience offered by foreign airlines. I was wrong. Today I boarded @LOTPLAirlines from Warsaw to Seoul, flight no LO97. First surprise: No ramp to reach the plane. Instead I was directed to a bus outside. 1/6
A sourly looking @LOTPLAirlines gate agent snapped a few orders at me and sent me on my merry way. People piled on the bus, and kept piling on even though the bus was full. There was no-one from LOT staff to assist and manage the process. Finally we left for the aircraft. 2/6
Two minutes later we arrived at the plane. And… just sat there with virtually no ventilation as we watched through an open aircraft door @LOTPLAirlines flight attendants leisurely prepare for the flight, unpacking dishes, meals, etc. While we sat there. And sat there. And.. 3/6
🧵A message to all armchair experts who have become captivated by #UAVs (also known as #drones) as the latest shiny object of modern warfare. I hope this message sparks some much-needed debate on the ongoing technological change, while providing a necessary reality check. 1/6
#Drones don't eliminate the enduring requirements of warfare: seizing terrain, generating trained manpower, sustaining logistical capacity, etc., and most of all imposing political outcomes on an adversary. They are enablers within a broader system, not independent solutions.2/6
The side that merely destroys more enemy assets/ terrorizes the population may still lose if it cannot maneuver. Attrition and maneuver are a continuum. Current discourse about #drones obscures this continuum by implying that technology can substitute for operational art. 3/6
🧵The recent post by @USWPColby, which discusses a strategy for @NATO 3.0, mostly revisits familiar ideas. Most importantly, it retreads legacy assumptions about Germany's leading role in the US-European alliance without considering the new geopolitical realities in #Europe. 1/7
West Germany was America's key ally in @NATO because it was the key point of contact with the Warsaw Pact, had a strong economy, population resources, and critically, the irreducible national interest to resist Soviet expansionism at all costs. Today's Germany is different. 2/7
In contrast, today's #Germany is a Central European power, geographically protected from Russia by @NATO allies North, East and South. As shown in the post-Cold War decades, especially during the Merkel era, the Berlin Republic no longer sees the Russian threat as existential.3/7