Andrew A. Michta Profile picture
Jan 17 9 tweets 2 min read Read on X
🧵The announcement by Canadian PM @MarkJCarney of a reset in Canada-China ties accompanied by a trade deal of dramatic proportions will likely go down in history as a major political blunder. But don't listen to me: Premier Doug Ford of Ontario already denounced the deal. 1/9
Anger, however justified, should never be the principal driver of policy. This is true both about our Canadian brethren, and true about our European allies. We are living through a rocky transformation of the international system, but the geopolitical realities remain. 2/9
It is at times like this that we need cooler heads to prevail, and when we need leaders who can focus on the foundational principles of what constitutes our civilization. It defies reason that Canada would invite an Asian communist state to set up shop in North America. 3/9
Canada is culturally a close relative of the United States (we joke that "Canadians are Americans with health insurance."). Canada is vital to US security. Our common border is not much more than a line on the map-we've been always close and connected. These are the realties. 4/9
Economic or cultural issues aside, the United States is critical to the security and defense of Canada. Let's not forget that while Canada's population is only around 42 million, it is the world's second-largest country by total area covering approx.3.85 million square miles.5/9
Canada spans nearly half of the North American continent, with the world's longest coastline and six time zones. In a nutshell, Canada needs a strong alliance with United States to ensure national security, and conversely, America needs Canada to secure its neighborhood. 6/9
Alliances are built based on common threats and common interests, with shared values reinforcing if not driving their formation. The US-Canada alliance ticks off all three. So, riddle me this: Why would Canada endanger this alliance by inviting China into our neighborhood? 7/9
Again, anger-justified or not-should never define foundational policy choices. As I always repeat when I speak in Europe: Europeans do not have a relationship with this or that US President, this or that party; they have a vital security relationship with the United States. 8/9
I would say exactly the same thing to our Canadian friends. Let's reflect on how we got to this place and course correct. And I would add that statecraft is never easy, and that we need leaders who can rise up to the challenge because the future of the West is at stake. 9/End

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More from @andrewmichta

Jul 19
🧵After some 3 months in Europe, I'm beginning to prepare to go back home. A few thoughts as I reflect on my experience here this summer. First, American democracy is different from what exists in the #EU today, and that shouldn't surprise anyone, but should make us think. 1/10
Democracy is organic to American national identity; the state's origins are inextricably intertwined with its core ideals. On the other hand, democracy in Europe as we know it today is largely derivative, superseding monarchies that defined its systems for a millennium. 2/10
In Europe, democracy grew amidst crises: bargaining between royalty and commoners (the UK); a bloody revolution ending with the guillotine and imperial wars (France); or imposed on the nation as an act of unconditional surrender (Germany).3/10. Different paths were followed. 3/10
Read 10 tweets
Jul 2
🧵I've been in Europe for 2 months (Poland, Estonia, France, next Hungary, Belgium, Germany). I'd like to share a few observations before @NATO summit in Ankara. BLUF: Most of Euro policy elites don't understand current US politics--and often refuse to understand their own. 1/11
Americans are divided on issues like inflation, immigration, trade, or foreign policy, splitting into contentious factions which are generally misidentified by Euro elites as America's left and right. The key problem: Europe's intelligentsia doesn't know the US heartland. 2/11
Each day #EU elites grow more defensive, rallying around their favorite projects (net-zero, migration, multiculturalism, etc.). Beneath lies a deeper problem: with few notable exceptions (Finland), citizens across Europe believe that their leaders feel unaccountable to them. 3/11
Read 11 tweets
Jun 4
🧵As I watch US podcasts on the internet about #Russia’s war against #Ukraine what I see increasingly defies reason. Academics like Mearsheimer or Sachs de facto repeat Russian talking points. For years now retired US colonels continue to declare #Ukraine’s imminent end, etc. 1/6
Most of the people who pontificate on Russia have never been outside of Moscow/Petersburg, if that. They don’t speak a word of Russian, nor Ukrainian. Instead, IR theory and, frankly, chutzpah substitute for country expertise as they boldly predict Ukraine’s imminent demise. 2/6
War is not a professor’s seminar on his/her pet IR theory. Service in the US military doesn’t give one genuine expertise on Eurasia. What I find most jarring is the apparent glee with which they claim their views to be strategic gospel. Zero humility. Zero self-reflection. 3/6
Read 6 tweets
May 26
🧵I’m sick and tired of those shilling for Putin who constantly repeat that Zelensky hasn’t held a presidential election or that corruption hampers #Ukraine’s defense effort and thereby Kyiv is “not worthy” of America’s support. Get it through your heads: Ukraine is at war. 1/5
#Ukraine is fighting for its very survival not just as a country, but as a nation. Period. I’d like to remind those sanctimonious “Putin explainers” that during World War II FDR introduced several significant abridgments of civil liberties and constitutional rights in the US. 2/5
Look up the EO 9066, the Smith Act of 1940, the Proclamation 2537, Selective Training and Service Act of 1940, etc. We were at war then, and wartime conditions cannot be judged by peacetime requirements. Roosevelt served four terms until his death in 1945 regardless of custom.3/5
Read 5 tweets
May 22
🧵POTUS's post that the US will deploy 5K troops to #Poland could be transformative for @NATO. For too long since the end of the Cold War the US force posture in Europe has relied on legacy installations, predominantly in #Germany, and most of all, on legacy assumptions. 1/6
During the Cold War, the US permanently based its military in #Germany because that was the point of contact. In those days, the Bonn Republic was the critical hub of @NATO's eastern flank. US troops served in Germany with families, with an extensive support infrastructure.2/6
Those decades of US forces being based in Germany created a bond of trust, underlying not only mil-mil relations, but also strengthening public support in the US for @NATO and the US pivotal role in it. Today the geostrategic reality is different-#Poland is the new NATO hub. 3/6
Read 6 tweets
May 21
I recently complained about US airlines, comparing them to a superior experience offered by foreign airlines. I was wrong. Today I boarded @LOTPLAirlines from Warsaw to Seoul, flight no LO97. First surprise: No ramp to reach the plane. Instead I was directed to a bus outside. 1/6
A sourly looking @LOTPLAirlines gate agent snapped a few orders at me and sent me on my merry way. People piled on the bus, and kept piling on even though the bus was full. There was no-one from LOT staff to assist and manage the process. Finally we left for the aircraft. 2/6
Two minutes later we arrived at the plane. And… just sat there with virtually no ventilation as we watched through an open aircraft door @LOTPLAirlines flight attendants leisurely prepare for the flight, unpacking dishes, meals, etc. While we sat there. And sat there. And.. 3/6
Read 6 tweets

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