When institutions fail us, knowing how to be a skeptic & how to analyze information becomes a survival skill. For the vast majority of us, this simply hasn't been true for our entire lives. We had reliable (or reliable enough) institutions. We didn't have to know how to separate
“Possibility vs. measurement” framing. Those days of reliable institutions have been eroding for a long time, but are truly over now. The problem is most people don't realize it, so when people are ringing alarm bells people too easily dismiss it. This is called epistemic shock.
For most of our lives, we didn’t need strong skepticism skills. Institutions filtered reality for us well enough.
You could assume that if something mattered, it would be detected, communicated, and acted on. That assumption is no longer safe.
I think the first & most clear example of this is the failures of the response to C*VID. When "airborne in the military sense" was uttered, the rapid degradation began. It's only accelerated since. Now it includes everything from vaccines to environmental pollutants.
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US history 101 for non-boomers. Okay so most people that aren't boomers have no functional memory of the early 70's. This is critically important right now. There is this idea that the US "won" the cold war & the soviet union collapsed. This isn't actually true. Both the
Soviet Union & what is really important for this history lesson is, the US collapsed. Actually they collapsed before the Soviet Union. In the early 70's lots of really important things happened for the US. They basically defaulted on their gold debt. This was why the US
abandoned the gold standard. They were cooking the books & could not pay the gold they were indebted for. Between about 1971 & 1974 the US was in full financial collapse. They defaulted on their loans, the stock market was in free fall. Textbook full collapse.
I recently watched a good documentary about “toxic tofu” in Indonesia. It explains something bigger than tofu. I'm going to try to capture it in a thread here.
Western countries ship plastic waste overseas.
It’s so abundant that tofu makers burn it as fuel to cook food.
A staple food. Cooked with trash that makes it highly contaminated & toxic. It replaced a traditional method that used natural fuels, but those fuels cost a little more money. Poverty & western policy forces bad choices.
This isn’t because people want to burn plastic.
It’s because plastic waste is:
• Cheap
• Everywhere
• Imported
• Hard to refuse
Abundance shapes behavior.
So I reposted this a few days ago, because I wanted to see how many people understand the gravity of what's unfolding in front of our eyes. I've waited for a few days I've read the comments, I read the quote tweets. I'm going to say that we are probably 10 years or less
Okay, so we are far enough into this now that I think I can say that we've managed to not spread this in our house. How did we do it? We followed the science. Most modern global studies that I reviewed show that influenza spreads like this ...
%50-%80 by aerosols, %20 - %30 by large droplets & %5-%10 via surface contamination. Here's how I attacked each of those: 1) I ran CR Boxes & HEPA filters in each room. (aerosol reduction) 2) I increased the outdoor ventilation in my home.(aerosol reduction)
3) We wore high quality masks when spending time with the infectious person. (they masked too). (aerosol & droplet reduction) 4) I washed my hands after leaving heavily contaminated areas & cleaned surfaces in the sick room (fomite reduction)
So lots of people are watching the increasingly bizarre things happening in the US & wondering what is going on? Have they all lost their minds? No. They have not & this is far more chilling than that. What they are doing is called epistemic destabilization & it's a core
feature of how totalitarian regimes maintain control. It's highly effective & has been used to keep populations under boot for decades successfully. It keeps people from knowing what’s real, what’s important, and what’s actually happening. When people can’t tell real
problems from invented ones, they become passive, confused, compliant, and easy to manipulate. Hannah Arendt talks about this quite a bit in the origins of totalitarianism.
I see lots of posts from people that are like "I see all these papers that show population harms from COVID infections, but I'm not seeing it in my daily life". Yep that's a real thing. It's basically a product of selection bias. It's a blind spot in the way we perceive the world
The exact same thing can be observed in other events. Things like smoking, diabetes, lead exposure, etc. This is called naive empiricism & it's why many of those things took decades to become accepted. Ask yourself, were you aware of the harms of smoking before being actually
hammered over the head with them? Would you have diagnosed the link to cancer based on your own observations? What about diabetes? Would you have found the link to neurological, cardiovascular, immune problems based on your own observations? There many examples like this.