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Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
@Mylovanov
Jan 19 • 5 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
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Fukuyama: Trump is a bully who wants to dominate everyone around him. Trying to placate him with concessions is a fool’s errand. He despises weakness.

As an American, I say to my European friends: do not back down. Appeasing Trump with flattery has failed and must stop. 1/
Fukuyama: Europeans think conceding Greenland will mollify Trump. It won’t. He will come back for more later. Europe says it still depends on the U.S. to deal with Russia.

But Trump’s America has abandoned Ukraine and declared Europe secondary to the Western Hemisphere. 2/
Fukuyama: Countries that stood up to Trump’s threats — Brazil, India, China — have done well. They boosted domestic support, and China forced the U.S. to back down.

Trump is not the United States: most Americans are dismayed by his policies and likely to vote against him. 3X
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More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Jun 21
Bolton: Iran deal requires Israel to withdraw all forces from Lebanon. I see zero chance of that.

But it gives Iran, through Hezbollah, the ability to punish Israel and have Trump and Vance criticize the Israelis for defending themselves. A powerful political weapon. 1/
Bolton: This deal is a powerful tool to split the Great Satan from the Little Satan.

Vance's vitriol toward Israel, saying it was 'built with American money', won't sit well with Israelis or Americans who view Israel as a key ally. Vance has embraced the role of architect here. 2/
Bolton: Compare the rhetoric of JD Vance on Iran to Rob Malley and Barack Obama. It's very hard to tell the difference

Trump jokingly said he might blame Vance if this doesn't go well. If Vance wants this deal, fine, but if he doesn't, he'll have to find his own way out of it 3X
Read 5 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Jun 20
Britain is building long-range missiles for Ukraine without U.S. components.

Washington has repeatedly delayed or limited the use of ATACMS and Storm Shadow for strikes inside Russia.

Ukraine gets weapons no one in Washington can veto — FT. 1/ Image
The project is called Brakestop.

The UK unveiled three prototype long-range strike missiles developed by MBDA UK, MGI Engineering and Rotron Aerospace.

After more tests this year, one or more could reach Ukraine by the end of 2026. 2/
The requirement is political as much as technical.

No U.S. components. No dependence on U.S. cartographic data. No American guidance systems.

The UK wants sovereign control over what it gives Ukraine and how Ukraine can use it. 3/
Read 10 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Jun 20
Hodges: Putin's nightmare — momentum shifts irreversibly in Ukraine's favor. He loses oil and gas exports. Oligarchs push back openly. Europe begins stopping shadow fleet vessels in the Baltic and Black Sea.

When all of that converges — it's over for him. He'll know it. 1/
Hodges: Russia's professional military knows Putin's war has destroyed or severely damaged Russia's armed forces — even Russia's ability to defend itself.

I could imagine the military leadership at some point saying: this is enough. We want to accelerate to that point. 2/
Hodges: Minister Federov says the goal is 50,000 Russian casualties per month. Dramatic — losses that can never be replaced. Ukraine wants to accelerate the collapse.

Too many still believe Russia can't be defeated. That narrative doesn't reflect the reality on the ground. 3X
Read 5 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Jun 20
Hodges: The Kerch Bridge is a high-payoff target, not just logistically but psychologically. Destroying Putin's bridge would demolish morale and erode the false narrative of inevitable Russian victory

The Ukrainians will pick the right time. It will require a lot of explosive 1/
Hodges: Russia can't rebuild the Kerch Bridge quickly — especially if an entire span drops. There's a reason no bridge existed there before. Massive engineering undertaking.

The Ukrainians have already been degrading its defenses and weakening the structure systematically. 2/
Hodges: Ukraine's long-range precision strikes on Russia's oil and gas — this is the path to victory. When Russia can no longer export, that cuts off the only income sustaining the war.

It also proves to Russians that the Putin regime cannot protect them from Ukraine. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Jun 20
Hodges: Crimea dominates the Black Sea, it's why Catherine the Great took it in the 18th century. If Russia holds it, they block access to the Azov Sea and disrupt everything out of Odessa.

It's in the interest of all of us that Ukraine regains control of Crimea. 1/
Hodges: Crimea is doable. The geography that makes it important also makes it vulnerable. Ukraine now has the range — drones, missiles, weapons platforms — to touch every target.

No airfields, no logistics bases, no radar safe. There is no place to hide on that peninsula. 2/
Hodges: Isolation of Crimea is picking up speed. The Kerch Bridge is so weakened Russia cut heavy traffic over it. Northern bridge systems are hit every day. Convoys reroute — more vulnerable.

That's why you see pictures of Russian convoys on fire on social media almost daily 3/
Read 6 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Jun 20
Kuleba: In Brussels, European leaders were stunned by Ukraine's strikes on Moscow. To say they were impressed is to say nothing.

But I was told some leaders are frightened by Ukraine's strength, they see strategically what kind of powerful player is emerging on their doorstep 1/
Kuleba: The effect is triple. They're glad Ukraine hits back hard. But they see a new Ukraine forming — one that will join the EU and will be a force.

And they're terrified about what happens with Russia next. Europeans fear uncontrolled developments there. It paralyzes them. 2/
Kuleba: They realize they're absolutely helpless. They don't influence Ukraine's approach toward Moscow.

And Ukraine today has real levers to launch an uncontrolled spiral accelerating the death of the Russian empire. This scenario genuinely unsettles the Europeans. 3/
Read 6 tweets

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