Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Jan 19 5 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Fukuyama: Trump is a bully who wants to dominate everyone around him. Trying to placate him with concessions is a fool’s errand. He despises weakness.

As an American, I say to my European friends: do not back down. Appeasing Trump with flattery has failed and must stop. 1/
Fukuyama: Europeans think conceding Greenland will mollify Trump. It won’t. He will come back for more later. Europe says it still depends on the U.S. to deal with Russia.

But Trump’s America has abandoned Ukraine and declared Europe secondary to the Western Hemisphere. 2/
Fukuyama: Countries that stood up to Trump’s threats — Brazil, India, China — have done well. They boosted domestic support, and China forced the U.S. to back down.

Trump is not the United States: most Americans are dismayed by his policies and likely to vote against him. 3X
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More from @Mylovanov

Jan 21
Trump: A military option against Iran is possible.

They were going to hang 837 people. We made it clear to them that if they did that, things would go very badly for them.

And they didn't do it.

1/
Trump: I have lost a lot of respect for Norway.

I am convinced that Norway controls the Nobel Prize.

I have settled eight wars, and they didn't give it to me. They don't understand anything.

2/
Trump on Macron and Starmer: I get along very well with them.

They are a little rude when I'm not around, but when I'm around, they treat me very well.

They need to get their countries in order.

3/
Read 4 tweets
Jan 21
Hodges: The U.S. reputation is under enormous strain because of Trump’s threats to “buy Greenland,” a territory of a NATO ally.

When I first heard it, I thought it couldn’t be true. This is the kind of thing that undermines trust. 1/
Hodges: The Soviets never attacked NATO because they respected its unity. That cohesion, knowing we’d all stand together — was the secret sauce.

Russians have tried for decades to erode that trust. It feels like the American president is doing it for them right now. 2/
Hodges: Europe is our biggest trading partner as a bloc. And so it's in the interest of the United States that it be stable and secure.

European countries should be doing more for their defence. But this is fixable — and I do feel that change starting in Germany. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Jan 20
Ursula von der Leyen: In just over a month, we will mark the 4th anniversary of Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine. 4 years on, Russia shows no sign of abating, remorse, or seeking peace.

Russia is intensifying its attacks, killing civilians every day as we speak. 1/
Ursula von der Leyen: Just last week, its bombing of Ukraine's energy infrastructure left millions facing darkness, cold and water shortages. This must end. 2/
Ursula von der Leyen: Many Europeans have decided to provide Ukraine with a loan of €90B for 2026 and 2027.

We make sure that Ukraine can bolster its defense on the battlefield, strengthen its defence capabilities for a peace agreement and keep basic services running. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Jan 20
Budanov: China is absorbing Russia.

Russia overpays China for electronics, machine tools, and raw materials.

China takes advantage of this, earns a lot of money, and increases its political influence over Russia.

Russia also shares military technologies with China.

1/
Budanov: Russia is not winning the war. If it was winning or won, we wouldn’t be talking here about it.

Unfortunately, we can’t throw Russia out of negotiations. We have to talk and deal with them.

2/
Budanov: I feel cautiously optimistic about the peace process. We are moving forward.

But much depends on Russia in this matter, whether some people like it or not.

3X
Read 4 tweets
Jan 20
Ukraine’s Minister of Economy Sobolev: Ukraine’s economy is growing — about 2.2% last year. Russia’s is near zero. The trends are splitting fast.

At some point, Putin has to ask if dead lives are worth it. That math pushes the war toward peace.

1/
Sobolev: Even in war, Ukraine’s economy grew about 2.2%. This winter is the hardest in decades and repairs take time, but it’s not collapse.

Winter will pass, consumption will drop, renewables will kick in. This is the darkest moment — but it will get better.

2/
Sobolev: US-EU-Ukraine talks are the furthest ever. Parts of the deal are 100% agreed, some issues remain.

Security, EU accession, and the economy are linked — miss one and the deal fails. The economic framework must work for both the US and EU.

3/
Read 4 tweets
Jan 20
Volker: Peace needs Russia’s consent, and they won’t agree. Even if Moscow accepts terms today, it will demand more tomorrow. There is always more.

Keeping the US, Ukraine, and Europe aligned matters, but it won’t produce peace.

1/
Volker: A peace deal with Russia is unlikely. The real goal is to make the war too costly so Russia can’t continue—leading to a de facto ceasefire.

Talks help keep the US, Ukraine, and Europe aligned on EU accession, security guarantees, deterrence, and Ukraine’s recovery.

2/
Volker: Trump says he wants to own Greenland. By force, that would be unacceptable—to Denmark, Europe, NATO—and could end NATO.

It would hurt the US far more than any gain. The US already can secure Greenland militarily without owning it, and could expand its presence again.

3/
Read 4 tweets

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