Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Jan 19 9 tweets 4 min read Read on X
John Bolton: The damage that Trump is doing to America's reputation is just impossible to state.

This is so extraordinary to threaten the invasion of a NATO ally, to seize territory from a democracy. The impact in Europe, you cannot calculate how bad this is for us. 1/
Bolton: There is nothing that we need in terms of security in Greenland that's not amply provided in a 1951 treaty with Denmark called the Defense of Greenland Treaty.

I think diplomats between the two countries and with other NATO allies could resolve this very quickly. 2/
Bolton: Russia and China are a threat in the Arctic — we’ve known that for decades. The U.S. has been just as lax as other NATO allies in responding.

But we’ll do whatever it takes to defend our interests in Greenland, Northern Canada and Alaska — that’s why alliances exist. 3/
Bolton: It’s not about defending Greenland. Trump said Russian and Chinese ships are all over it — they are not.

The threat comes from the melting polar ice cap. We need surveillance, not U.S. military force. 4/
Bolton: If you want to rip up NATO and show allies like Japan, South Korea, and Australia we can’t be trusted — use force against Denmark in Greenland.

Threaten friends with tariffs. It’s so counterproductive it’ll take years to repair the damage Trump is doing. 5/
Bolton: Consider what it means for the United States to invade an ally like Denmark. Is Canada next, Great Britain, Spain?

For 250 years Denmark’s been one of America’s closest friends, yet Trump thinks that the only way to deal with them is to threaten military force. 6/
Bolton: People say that's just the way Trump is. That's not the right answer. He's the president of the United States.

People take what he says seriously. They think that the risk of military force is real. I don't think it is, but other people could be forgiven if they do. 7/
Bolton: Trump said the other day, we need Greenland psychologically. The United States does not need Greenland psychologically.

Trump does. This is not about American national security. This is about Donald Trump alone. 8X
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More from @Mylovanov

Feb 16
Myroslav, defected Russian soldier: The best motivation in the Russian army is fear.

It's intimidation, it's proving yourself to be much more powerful than you actually are "I've been through a bunch of assaults, killed so many". Killing is their main motivation. 1/
Myroslav: There was a conversation about civilians and prisoners of war. If they get caught, just kill them.

Why do you need this burden? You need to take them there and carry them. It’s an additional risk to interrogate them and remove them. 2/
Myroslav: The Russian army's staff are assholes. I'm far removed from the concepts of the criminal code, but you can really feel it there.

So, let's say you say something, and tomorrow everyone knows it. And they need exactly these kinds of jerks. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Feb 16
Hillary Clinton: Give Ukraine Tomahawks. Give them more Patriot missiles. Let them strike inside Russia.

When Ukraine hit cross-border targets, Russia began thinking about talks. Hundreds of thousands killed are not enough pain for Putin. Create leverage. 1/
Clinton: Trump administration’s position toward Ukraine is disgraceful.

Forcing Ukraine into a surrender deal with Putin is shameful. The effort by Putin and Trump to profit off the misery and death of Ukrainians is a historic error and corrupt to the nth degree. 2/
Clinton: Ukraine is fighting for our democracy, our freedom and our civilization.

It is losing thousands of people and watching its country destroyed by one man’s mania to control them. Trump either does not understand that suffering or does not care. 3X
Read 5 tweets
Feb 16
Stubb: I don’t believe Russia keeps fighting to gain territory. In 12 years it gained about 8% more, and recently just 1%.

Losses are huge — 34,000 in December, 30,000 in January — and recruitment lags. The real issue is the political cost for Putin.

1/
Stubb: Russia has always had troops on our border. I think Russia is losing — the war was Putin’s strategic mistake.

He wanted to stop NATO and keep Europe weak. Instead, Finland and Sweden joined, and Europe is moving to 5%. The Nordics and Baltics are not next.

2/
Stubb: Russia is not going to test Article 5. But it remains a long-term threat — imperialism and expansion are in its DNA.

It hasn’t reckoned honestly with its history. We must ensure those ambitions don’t spill into the South Caucasus or Central Asia.

3X
Read 5 tweets
Feb 16
Stubb: The world order is in transition — but let’s not throw the baby out with the bathwater.

Orders change: after WWI, WWII, the Cold War. Now we’re looking for something new. What matters is that the transatlantic partnership still stands at the center of it.

1/
Stubb: Don’t tell me we can’t defend ourselves. But we still need the US nuclear umbrella — it’s a core pillar of NATO’s deterrence.

The key guarantee comes from the US, and it’s in America’s interest that countries like Finland defend themselves near Russia’s nuclear bases.

2/
Stubb: There should be no doubt. The nuclear balance is changing — it’s no longer just the US and Russia.

China is rising from about 600 warheads toward 1,500. Europe must look at its own protection, but it’s in America’s interest to maintain the nuclear umbrella over Europe.
3X
Read 5 tweets
Feb 15
Stalin expected to crush Finland in 10 days. It took 105 days and 400,000 Soviet casualties. He got 10% of Finnish territory.

Putin invaded Ukraine expecting a quick victory parade. 4 years later, Russia controls just 20% of pre-war Ukrainian territory — WP. 1/ Image
Stalin's USSR had 170 million people vs Finland's 3.5 million. A Soviet general told Stalin it would take 10 days max.

Molotov said Stalin wanted to celebrate his birthday "on the steps of Finland's Parliament in precisely 20 days." 2/
The war ended March 13, 1940 — over three months later with massive Soviet losses the Kremlin concealed.

Stalin had to settle for a fraction of what he wanted. Sound familiar? 3/
Read 9 tweets
Feb 15
Petraeus: This is Ukraine's greatest generation.

When the cessation of hostilities begins, we're going to see Ukraine as the greatest military industrial complex in the West, building an entirely new country focused on new technologies and new economic endeavors. 1/
Petraeus: Ukraine is producing tomorrow's technology for today's war. West produces yesterday's technology for tomorrow's wars. That's got to be changed dramatically.

They've got to overhaul that, bring it more up to date, to reflect how warfare is evolving on the ground, in the air and on the sea in Ukraine. 2/
Petraeus: What allies have got to do is not fall into the trap of buying legacy systems rather than buying what is the future of warfare. The place to see that is in Ukraine.

We‘ve got to learn how they have shortened the kill chain. It starts with new concepts for operations that turn into doctrine. 3X
Read 4 tweets

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