1/ Huge numbers of Russian soldiers are dying unnecessarily in Ukraine because commanders at every level are falsifying claims of success, according to Russian warbloggers. "To back up their words, they're sending people to their deaths," says one front-line soldier. ⬇️
2/ The image above is an extract from an official Russian Ministry of Defence map showing a completely fictional front line around Kupyansk in Ukraine's Kharkiv region. Commanders falsely reported having taken settlements around the city before it was regained by Ukraine.
3/ Russian commentators call this practice "taking on credit" (as in amassing credit card debt). Commanders have both financial and career motivations for making false reports of success, which are relayed all the way up to Vladimir Putin himself.
4/ 'Time_of_Tremor' explains the consequences:
"Mid-level commanders, fearing reprimands from their superiors, paint vague successes in reports, which are then passed on to higher-ups, where, at the next level, these non-existent victories become confirmed facts."
5/ "The wheel turns: each new report adds momentum, and all that remains of reality is the name of the coordinates.
The top brass, having received this colourful picture, plans fire support and further manoeuvres according to a long-distorted plan."
6/ "The positions of friendly and enemy forces on the ground don't match up even by a metre, but everything is perfect in the staff papers.
7/ "When deadlines are pressing, to avoid being caught in a lie, the onslaught begins, or rather, their numerous attempts: tasks that should have taken months are now required to be completed in a week.
8/ "The territory will be under control, but the price is the blood of those who didn't check the boxes, didn't lie in intelligence reports, and didn't file reports.
9/ "The soldiers and their immediate commanders don't applaud, because every false figure in a report translates into real deaths, 200s [killed] or [wounded] 300s. And I know this firsthand.
10/ "Many comrades have given their lives or been maimed, unwitting participants in this theatre of deception, covering someone's bottom while they sit in a comfortable chair and plot their way to the conquest of the galaxy.
11/ "Extra coffins that could have been spared from being loaded onto KAMAZ trucks are the result of sweet lies, passed through the wheel of deception."
12/ More pungently, one of the administrators of the 'Management Speaks' Telegram channel – a frontline Russian soldier fighting in Ukraine – describes how this looks on the ground:
"For a long time, I kept quiet and hid this idiocy that's happening now, but it's just bullshit!"
13/ "Those looking for medals and a pat on the head reported that everything was awesome, we took the village and are now courageously repelling counterattacks, but no one wanted to say that these idiots reported ahead of schedule and now, to back up their words,…
14/ …they're sending people to their deaths; in some places, our guys are being cornered and wiped out by the Germans [sic]; in other places, the guys are exhausted and aren't even being stormed because their positions are encircled!
15/ "They shot down all the birds [drones] that our side threw food at us with; some guys have already drunk their own piss because there's nothing fucking funny here! While these assholes are having fun and don't treat us like living people, this will continue to happen.
16/ "I've lost 12 people during this time, and some dude is going to tell me this is war!"
As well as the ongoing situation at Kupyansk, which is still the subject of verifiably false official claims, bogus reports of advances elsewhere are also being called out.
17/ 'Blue Beard' writes:
"Another "credit" report about Mahdalynivka has already been sent to the commander, as far as I know.
It's a monstrous situation, when the situation on the ground lags behind the reports by 10 kilometres."
18/ "I'm tired, frankly, of repeating the consequences: aviation and artillery cannot support the infantry in their advance into areas reported as liberated.
This is all starting to become very alarming. Much like with Bilhorivka, which was liberated six times."
19/ Rybar, which provides an OSINT-based assessment of the front lines that is fairly consistent with Ukrainian assessments (such as the one from Deep State above), calls out the situation around Kostyantynivka and elsewhere in the region:
20/ "Another problem is that there's a significant "credit" balcony north of Kostyantynivka. Of all the settlements designated as liberated, Maiske was recently squeezed out, but only more than three months after the official announcement.
21/ "And Klynove, 5 kilometres from Druzhkivka, was declared liberated.
22/ "➡️ The Chasiv Yar – Bakhmut – Soledar line remains the most heavily indebted in terms of area, and represents a difficult and lengthy "legacy" for the new GV South command.
23/ "Units of the "Volunteer Corps" have long been supplied on a residual basis and are advancing miraculously, but nowhere near the scale reported.
24/ "➡️ Following a series of scandals involving credit reports and unjustified losses, the command of the "South" group of forces has changed several times.
25/ "The results of this are visible in the now Sloviansk direction, where "[Army Group] South" units are advancing toward Slaviansk quite successfully and quickly, by the standards of the Special Military Operation.
26/ "📌 Throughout the history of special military operations, there are examples of successful "psyops" that required exaggerating their own successes. But whether this makes sense today is a very big question.
27/ "❗️ I sincerely hope that attacks south of Kostyantynivka have intensified not because the northern outflanking has already been "formed," as it exists solely on paper." /end
1/ Why has Russia failed so abysmally at providing secure battlefield communications to its troops in Ukraine? The answer, concludes Russian warblogger Oleg Tsarev, is that the military communications budget has been looted for years by corrupt generals and contractors. ⬇️
2/ Tsarev relates the dismal history of Russia's military communications programmes:
"I remember how, at the beginning of the Special Military Operation, all units were buying Motorola radios. There was no other communications."
3/ "Now, Elon Musk has shut down the Starlink terminals our military used in the Special Military Operation, and our communications at the front have been disrupted. I'm talking to military personnel: many say we still have virtually no communications of our own.
1/ The attempted assassination of Lt Gen Vladimir Alekseyev in Moscow this morning has outraged Russian warbloggers, who regard him as a hero of Russia. They have highlighted his key role and contributions to the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine. ⬇️
2/ Vladimir Romanov writes:
"An assassination attempt was made on Lieutenant General Vladimir Alekseyev [who is known as 'Stepanich'], First Deputy Chief of the Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU) of the Russian Ministry of Defence."
3/ "An unknown assailant fired several shots into his back in the elevator lobby of a building on Volokolamsk Highway at 7:00 a.m. The assassin fled the scene. Alekseyev was hospitalised.
1/ Russia's battlefield communications are reportedly "in chaos" following the Starlink shutdown. Communications specialists are said to be scrambling to find alternative solutions, while warbloggers advocate torturing Ukrainian PoWs to get their Starlink passwords. ⬇️
2/ Yuri Podolyak writes:
"So, what everyone had long feared, but secretly hoped wouldn't happen until the end of the Special Military Operation has happened. Elon Musk flipped the switch, and 80% of Starlink terminals on the front line went down."
3/ "Moreover, it's highly likely that on our side, this will soon reach 100%, and only Russian ingenuity can attempt to circumvent it. And they will probably circumvent it somehow. But not with a return to 100% functionality as of yesterday morning.
1/ A Russian warblogger explains what the Russian army in Ukraine saw when they were disconnected en masse from Starlink yesterday. ⬇️
2/ "Starlink went down across the theatre of military operations in a rather strange way.
At around 22:00 Moscow time, it was like this:
3/ "– All terminals in the Ukraine theatre of operations are blocked. Both ours and those of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Even from their "white list". All of them.
1/ Russian retailers are cashing in on Elon Musk's mass disabling of the Russian army's Starlink terminals by massively increasing the price of Russian alternatives. One such system has quadrupled in price overnight to over $2,600, but is said to be far inferior to Starlink. ⬇️
2/ 'Combat Reserve' complains that there has been a huge overnight increase in the price being asked for the Yamal 601 system, which uses Gazprom's Yamal satellite constellation. Units are now selling for 200,000 rubles ($2,612) apiece.
3/ Listings on Avito (Russia's answer to eBay) show that until yesterday, Yamal 601 units were being priced at between 45-60,000 rubles. They are however far less capable than Starlink, and Russian soldiers have avoided them in favour of the smaller and faster US-made system.
1/ Russian forces in Ukraine are experiencing a devastating loss of connectivity as the Starlink terminals they rely upon are systematically shut off. With Russia's own Starlink alternative years away from implementation, Russian warbloggers say the army is in crisis. ⬇️
2/ The Russian army has, like Ukraine's, become dependent on Starlink for battlefield communications. Unlike Ukraine, it cannot import Starlink terminals legally and has to rely on grey imports activated in third countries.
3/ After Russian UAV makers began installing Starlink in kamikaze UAVs, SpaceX responded by implementing technical measures to disconnect fact-moving terminals and Ukraine began whitelisting its own terminals – with all non-whitelisted terminals being disabled.