1/ Huge numbers of Russian soldiers are dying unnecessarily in Ukraine because commanders at every level are falsifying claims of success, according to Russian warbloggers. "To back up their words, they're sending people to their deaths," says one front-line soldier. ⬇️
2/ The image above is an extract from an official Russian Ministry of Defence map showing a completely fictional front line around Kupyansk in Ukraine's Kharkiv region. Commanders falsely reported having taken settlements around the city before it was regained by Ukraine.
3/ Russian commentators call this practice "taking on credit" (as in amassing credit card debt). Commanders have both financial and career motivations for making false reports of success, which are relayed all the way up to Vladimir Putin himself.
4/ 'Time_of_Tremor' explains the consequences:
"Mid-level commanders, fearing reprimands from their superiors, paint vague successes in reports, which are then passed on to higher-ups, where, at the next level, these non-existent victories become confirmed facts."
5/ "The wheel turns: each new report adds momentum, and all that remains of reality is the name of the coordinates.
The top brass, having received this colourful picture, plans fire support and further manoeuvres according to a long-distorted plan."
6/ "The positions of friendly and enemy forces on the ground don't match up even by a metre, but everything is perfect in the staff papers.
7/ "When deadlines are pressing, to avoid being caught in a lie, the onslaught begins, or rather, their numerous attempts: tasks that should have taken months are now required to be completed in a week.
8/ "The territory will be under control, but the price is the blood of those who didn't check the boxes, didn't lie in intelligence reports, and didn't file reports.
9/ "The soldiers and their immediate commanders don't applaud, because every false figure in a report translates into real deaths, 200s [killed] or [wounded] 300s. And I know this firsthand.
10/ "Many comrades have given their lives or been maimed, unwitting participants in this theatre of deception, covering someone's bottom while they sit in a comfortable chair and plot their way to the conquest of the galaxy.
11/ "Extra coffins that could have been spared from being loaded onto KAMAZ trucks are the result of sweet lies, passed through the wheel of deception."
12/ More pungently, one of the administrators of the 'Management Speaks' Telegram channel – a frontline Russian soldier fighting in Ukraine – describes how this looks on the ground:
"For a long time, I kept quiet and hid this idiocy that's happening now, but it's just bullshit!"
13/ "Those looking for medals and a pat on the head reported that everything was awesome, we took the village and are now courageously repelling counterattacks, but no one wanted to say that these idiots reported ahead of schedule and now, to back up their words,…
14/ …they're sending people to their deaths; in some places, our guys are being cornered and wiped out by the Germans [sic]; in other places, the guys are exhausted and aren't even being stormed because their positions are encircled!
15/ "They shot down all the birds [drones] that our side threw food at us with; some guys have already drunk their own piss because there's nothing fucking funny here! While these assholes are having fun and don't treat us like living people, this will continue to happen.
16/ "I've lost 12 people during this time, and some dude is going to tell me this is war!"
As well as the ongoing situation at Kupyansk, which is still the subject of verifiably false official claims, bogus reports of advances elsewhere are also being called out.
17/ 'Blue Beard' writes:
"Another "credit" report about Mahdalynivka has already been sent to the commander, as far as I know.
It's a monstrous situation, when the situation on the ground lags behind the reports by 10 kilometres."
18/ "I'm tired, frankly, of repeating the consequences: aviation and artillery cannot support the infantry in their advance into areas reported as liberated.
This is all starting to become very alarming. Much like with Bilhorivka, which was liberated six times."
19/ Rybar, which provides an OSINT-based assessment of the front lines that is fairly consistent with Ukrainian assessments (such as the one from Deep State above), calls out the situation around Kostyantynivka and elsewhere in the region:
20/ "Another problem is that there's a significant "credit" balcony north of Kostyantynivka. Of all the settlements designated as liberated, Maiske was recently squeezed out, but only more than three months after the official announcement.
21/ "And Klynove, 5 kilometres from Druzhkivka, was declared liberated.
22/ "➡️ The Chasiv Yar – Bakhmut – Soledar line remains the most heavily indebted in terms of area, and represents a difficult and lengthy "legacy" for the new GV South command.
23/ "Units of the "Volunteer Corps" have long been supplied on a residual basis and are advancing miraculously, but nowhere near the scale reported.
24/ "➡️ Following a series of scandals involving credit reports and unjustified losses, the command of the "South" group of forces has changed several times.
25/ "The results of this are visible in the now Sloviansk direction, where "[Army Group] South" units are advancing toward Slaviansk quite successfully and quickly, by the standards of the Special Military Operation.
26/ "📌 Throughout the history of special military operations, there are examples of successful "psyops" that required exaggerating their own successes. But whether this makes sense today is a very big question.
27/ "❗️ I sincerely hope that attacks south of Kostyantynivka have intensified not because the northern outflanking has already been "formed," as it exists solely on paper." /end
1/ Russian air defence soldiers complain that they are being paid as little as $133 a week and that the Russian government is failing to pay them bonuses promised for shooting down Ukrainian drones. Not surprisingly, this isn't helping morale. ⬇️
2/ 'Two Majors' writes:
"The enemy launches over a hundred drones daily into our regions. And not all of them are included in public statistics: many are shot down, for example, over the Zaporizhzhia region [of Ukraine]."
3/ "Therefore, an adequate solution to the problems of air defence personnel and mobile fire teams is an important and necessary task. We were told (some time ago):
1/ The Russian army has adopted infiltration tactics to slip past Ukrainian defences, dividing platoons into a handful of men who advance as far as they can, entrench, and await reinforcements. A Russian warblogger comments on this tactic's limitations. ⬇️
2/ This change of approach since 2024 has enabled Russia to advance slowly, though still generating heavy losses along the way. 'Archangel Spetsnaz' writes:
"Indeed, assault tactics have changed dramatically."
3/ "The wide range of detection and engagement systems and means has, figuratively speaking, "brought to its knees the old tactics," whereby company/battalion-sized offensives were carried out at the frontier.
1/ A poetry reading by Russian ultra-nationalists in Krasnodar has been violently suppressed by Russian security forces, much to the dismay of their online supporters. The incident highlights how much Putin's regime fears being outflanked from the nationalist right. ⬇️
2/ Members and supporters of the National Bolshevik movement, founded by the late poet and Soviet-era dissident Eduard Limonov, were holding a regularly scheduled reading of Limonov's works in Krasnodar on 17 January when they were interrupted by a law enforcement raid.
3/ According to the 'Carefree Carpenter Z' Telegram channel, "Everything was proceeding as usual when operatives from the regional "Centre E" and the FSB, armed with automatic rifles, burst into the loft space specially rented for the event."
1/ Russia's logistical capability to threaten Greenland, 1500 miles away, is fundamentally dependent on its ability to project naval power over long distances, potentially in contested waters. However, Russian warbloggers admit that this is severely limited even in peacetime. ⬇️
2/ 'Military Informant' writes that the Russian logistics vessel MYS ZHELANIYA has "delivered important cargo to the Afrika Korps, calling at the Libyan port of Tobruk. The SPARTA IV, escorted by the large anti-submarine ship Severomorsk, continued on to the coast of Syria."
3/ However, the channel acknowledges, this operation highlights the limits of "the real capabilities of the Russian Navy to escort its merchant ships at great distances from the country's coast."
1/ Donald Trump's aggressive tactics over Greenland are causing consternation among his far-right allies in Europe. With European publics overwhelmingly against surrendering Greenland, leading European far-rightists have come out in opposition to Trump's plans. ⬇️
2/ Bloomberg reports that Trump's designs have forced his ostensible allies to reconsider their support for him. Some may fear voters turning on them for their past support of Trump, much as Pierre Poilievre suffered in Canada in 2024.
3/ 🇩🇪 Alternative for Germany co-leader Alice Weidel says that Trump has acted no differently to Vladimir Putin in his actions in Venezuela and threats against Greenland. "Trump has violated a fundamental campaign promise — namely not to interfere in other countries," she says.
1/ 30 years ago, Russian law enforcement agents started wearing masks to carry out their duties. It soon became a standard tactic to intimidate and extort those seen as opponents of the regime, and became known in Russian as a 'mask show'. ⬇️
2/ During the Soviet era, there was no need for law enforcement officers to hide their faces. They were the agents of an all-powerful state, which although corrupt had huge resources to repress crime and political dissidence.
3/ This changed in the 1990s, when the chaotic collapse of the Communist economy led to the rise of widespread and deadly gangsterism. The police came under direct threat from well-armed criminals. To deal with this, some officers began wearing masks to conceal their identities.