"Kalshi, the US-regulated exchange, prices the probability of American acquisition of Greenland at roughly 42%. Polymarket, the decentralized platform populated by global crypto-natives and offshore speculators, prices it at 15-23%."
I'm no expert on geopolitics but I do know arbitrage. Doesn't matter who the average user is, it only takes one person with access to both platforms to arb the spread down
Price differences like this in prediction markets come down to (sometimes subtle) differences in what is being bet, not different user bases
Skimmed both platforms and likely what is being compared is polymarket probability of it happening in 2026 (23% right now) to kalshi probability of it happening during trumps entire term (45% now) - two different bets
Theres a 5% spread btwn polymarket / kalshi on 2026 but that is explainable through things like different phrasing, settlement conditions and oracles... which can lead to people pricing risk differently between the two. The zelensky suit market is the best example of the subtleties here
I'm no expert on geopolitics but I do know arbitrage. Doesn't matter who the average user is, it only takes one person with access to both platforms to arb the spread down
Price differences like this in prediction markets come down to (sometimes subtle) differences in what is being bet, not different user bases
Skimmed both platforms and likely what is being compared is polymarket probability of it happening in 2026 (23% right now) to kalshi probability of it happening during trumps entire term (45% now) - two different bets
Theres a 5% spread btwn polymarket / kalshi on 2026 but that is explainable through things like different phrasing, settlement conditions and oracles... which can lead to people pricing risk differently between the two. The zelensky suit market is the best example of the subtleties here
https://x.com/haydenzadams/status/2013768012642349120
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