Intel crashed 13% despite beating earnings.
This isn't just about Intel.
It's a WARNING SHOT for every tech stock that's run 50-200% and is "priced for perfection."
Here's who's next... 🧵
This isn't just about Intel.
It's a WARNING SHOT for every tech stock that's run 50-200% and is "priced for perfection."
Here's who's next... 🧵
The Intel playbook:
✅ Stock runs 145% on "turnaround story"
✅ Analysts upgrade (14 upgrades in Q4)
✅ Retail FOMO's in at highs
✅ Company beats earnings
❌ Guidance disappoints
💥 Stock craters
This is going to repeat.
✅ Stock runs 145% on "turnaround story"
✅ Analysts upgrade (14 upgrades in Q4)
✅ Retail FOMO's in at highs
✅ Company beats earnings
❌ Guidance disappoints
💥 Stock craters
This is going to repeat.
Who's vulnerable:
Criteria:
Up 100%+ in past year
Trading at >30x forward earnings
"Story" driven more than fundamentals
Earnings coming up in next month
Names that fit:
Criteria:
Up 100%+ in past year
Trading at >30x forward earnings
"Story" driven more than fundamentals
Earnings coming up in next month
Names that fit:
Nvidia (NVDA)
Up 180% (2024-2025)
Forward P/E: 35x
Earnings: Feb 26
The risk:
If they guide cautiously due to:
China export restrictions
AI spending slowdown
Competition from AMD/custom chips
Stock could pull back 15-20% EVEN ON A BEAT.
Up 180% (2024-2025)
Forward P/E: 35x
Earnings: Feb 26
The risk:
If they guide cautiously due to:
China export restrictions
AI spending slowdown
Competition from AMD/custom chips
Stock could pull back 15-20% EVEN ON A BEAT.
Tesla (TSLA)
Up 60% since November lows
Forward P/E: 85x (insane)
Earnings: Next week
The risk:
Auto margins compressing
Cybertruck problems
EV demand slowing
Elon distraction with politics/DOGE
Priced for perfection. ANY miss = -20%.
Up 60% since November lows
Forward P/E: 85x (insane)
Earnings: Next week
The risk:
Auto margins compressing
Cybertruck problems
EV demand slowing
Elon distraction with politics/DOGE
Priced for perfection. ANY miss = -20%.
AMD (AMD)
Up 95% in past year
Forward P/E: 28x
Earnings: Jan 28
The risk:
Same as Intel—supply constraints, execution issues, or cautious guidance.
If INTC got destroyed on supply issues, AMD isn't immune.
Up 95% in past year
Forward P/E: 28x
Earnings: Jan 28
The risk:
Same as Intel—supply constraints, execution issues, or cautious guidance.
If INTC got destroyed on supply issues, AMD isn't immune.
The pattern:
High-flying tech stocks are pricing in:
Perfect execution
Sustained demand
No hiccups
Accelerating growth
Reality:
Supply chain issues persist
Tariff uncertainty
Macro slowing (P&G showed this)
Valuations stretched
Math: Expectations > Reality = Selloff
High-flying tech stocks are pricing in:
Perfect execution
Sustained demand
No hiccups
Accelerating growth
Reality:
Supply chain issues persist
Tariff uncertainty
Macro slowing (P&G showed this)
Valuations stretched
Math: Expectations > Reality = Selloff
What's DIFFERENT about this earnings season:
2024: Fed cutting, economy strong, AI hype peak
→ Stocks rallied even on misses
2026: Fed paused, economy slowing, AI "show me" phase
→ Stocks punished for ANY disappointment
The bar is HIGHER. Forgiveness is LOWER.
2024: Fed cutting, economy strong, AI hype peak
→ Stocks rallied even on misses
2026: Fed paused, economy slowing, AI "show me" phase
→ Stocks punished for ANY disappointment
The bar is HIGHER. Forgiveness is LOWER.
The defensive tech plays:
Microsoft (MSFT):
Diversified revenue
Enterprise AI (real revenue, not hype)
Reasonable valuation (31x forward)
Strong balance sheet
Apple (AAPL):
Services revenue growing
Loyal customer base
$165B cash
Trading at 28x (not cheap but not insane)
Microsoft (MSFT):
Diversified revenue
Enterprise AI (real revenue, not hype)
Reasonable valuation (31x forward)
Strong balance sheet
Apple (AAPL):
Services revenue growing
Loyal customer base
$165B cash
Trading at 28x (not cheap but not insane)
The takeaway:
Intel's crash is a PREVIEW, not an outlier.
Every tech stock up 100%+ is vulnerable if:
Guidance disappoints
Execution stumbles
Macro weakens
Intel's crash is a PREVIEW, not an outlier.
Every tech stock up 100%+ is vulnerable if:
Guidance disappoints
Execution stumbles
Macro weakens
Strategy:
✅ Trim winners that have run hard
✅ Rotate to quality at reasonable valuations
✅ Hold cash for post-earnings dips
❌ Don't FOMO into high-flyers before earnings
The market just showed you what happens to "priced for perfection" stocks.
Believe it.
✅ Trim winners that have run hard
✅ Rotate to quality at reasonable valuations
✅ Hold cash for post-earnings dips
❌ Don't FOMO into high-flyers before earnings
The market just showed you what happens to "priced for perfection" stocks.
Believe it.
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