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HGM Profile picture
@HacGlobalMedia
Jan 23 • 13 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
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Intel crashed 13% despite beating earnings.
This isn't just about Intel.
It's a WARNING SHOT for every tech stock that's run 50-200% and is "priced for perfection."
Here's who's next... 🧵
The Intel playbook:
✅ Stock runs 145% on "turnaround story"
✅ Analysts upgrade (14 upgrades in Q4)
✅ Retail FOMO's in at highs
✅ Company beats earnings
❌ Guidance disappoints
💥 Stock craters
This is going to repeat.
Who's vulnerable:
Criteria:
Up 100%+ in past year
Trading at >30x forward earnings
"Story" driven more than fundamentals
Earnings coming up in next month
Names that fit:
Nvidia (NVDA)
Up 180% (2024-2025)
Forward P/E: 35x
Earnings: Feb 26
The risk:
If they guide cautiously due to:
China export restrictions
AI spending slowdown
Competition from AMD/custom chips
Stock could pull back 15-20% EVEN ON A BEAT.
Tesla (TSLA)
Up 60% since November lows
Forward P/E: 85x (insane)
Earnings: Next week
The risk:
Auto margins compressing
Cybertruck problems
EV demand slowing
Elon distraction with politics/DOGE
Priced for perfection. ANY miss = -20%.
AMD (AMD)
Up 95% in past year
Forward P/E: 28x
Earnings: Jan 28
The risk:
Same as Intel—supply constraints, execution issues, or cautious guidance.
If INTC got destroyed on supply issues, AMD isn't immune.
The pattern:
High-flying tech stocks are pricing in:
Perfect execution
Sustained demand
No hiccups
Accelerating growth
Reality:
Supply chain issues persist
Tariff uncertainty
Macro slowing (P&G showed this)
Valuations stretched
Math: Expectations > Reality = Selloff
What's DIFFERENT about this earnings season:
2024: Fed cutting, economy strong, AI hype peak
→ Stocks rallied even on misses
2026: Fed paused, economy slowing, AI "show me" phase
→ Stocks punished for ANY disappointment
The bar is HIGHER. Forgiveness is LOWER.
The defensive tech plays:
Microsoft (MSFT):
Diversified revenue
Enterprise AI (real revenue, not hype)
Reasonable valuation (31x forward)
Strong balance sheet
Apple (AAPL):
Services revenue growing
Loyal customer base
$165B cash
Trading at 28x (not cheap but not insane)
The takeaway:
Intel's crash is a PREVIEW, not an outlier.
Every tech stock up 100%+ is vulnerable if:
Guidance disappoints
Execution stumbles
Macro weakens
Strategy:
✅ Trim winners that have run hard
✅ Rotate to quality at reasonable valuations
✅ Hold cash for post-earnings dips
❌ Don't FOMO into high-flyers before earnings
The market just showed you what happens to "priced for perfection" stocks.
Believe it.
Free newsletter: open.substack.com/pub/hacheimsch…
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More from @HacGlobalMedia

HGM Profile picture
Feb 6
I'm going to make a falsifiable prediction that will either make me look brilliant or destroy my credibility:
The traditional 60/40 portfolio will experience a 25%+ drawdown before the end of 2027.
Here's my exact reasoning: 🧵
First, what counts as "traditional 60/40"?
60% U.S. stocks (S&P 500 or similar)
40% U.S. investment-grade bonds (10yr+ duration)
Rebalanced quarterly
This is the benchmark for $18 trillion in assets.
The setup is already in place:
Current environment:
S&P at ~6,000 (elevated valuations)
10-year yields at 4.5%
Stock-bond correlation at +0.33
Inflation running 3%+ (above target)
Fiscal deficits $1T+ annually
We're one catalyst away from crisis.
Read 11 tweets
HGM Profile picture
Feb 5
First, what counts as "traditional 60/40"?
60% U.S. stocks (S&P 500 or similar)
40% U.S. investment-grade bonds (10yr+ duration)
Rebalanced quarterly
This is the benchmark for $18 trillion in assets.
The setup is already in place:
Current environment:
S&P at ~6,000 (elevated valuations)
10-year yields at 4.5%
Stock-bond correlation at +0.33
Inflation running 3%+ (above target)
Fiscal deficits $1T+ annually
We're one catalyst away from crisis.
Catalyst scenario 1: The fiscal crisis
Treasury yields spike above 6% as buyers strike.
Stocks fall 20%+ (valuation compression + growth fears)
Bonds fall 15%+ (yield spike = price collapse)
Total portfolio drawdown: 28%
Probability: 35%
Read 10 tweets
HGM Profile picture
Feb 2
The U.S. government needs to sell $2 trillion in bonds this year.
But here's the problem: the three biggest buyers (Fed, China, Japan) are all SELLING.
This creates a doom loop that will destroy portfolio diversification.
Let me explain: 🧵
Quick history: Who traditionally buys U.S. Treasuries?
Federal Reserve (money printing)
Foreign central banks (China, Japan)
Domestic buyers (banks, pensions, you)
This trio absorbed all government debt for decades.
Then 2022 happened.
The Fed reversed: Went from BUYING $120B/month to SELLING.
They've reduced holdings by $1.7 trillion since 2022.
That's a $2+ trillion annual swing in demand.
Someone else has to fill that gap.
Read 11 tweets
HGM Profile picture
Feb 1
In 2022, I watched $18 trillion in "safe, diversified" portfolios lose 16% in a single year.
The math that promised this couldn't happen?
It was taught in every finance class for 70 years.
And it just stopped working.
Here's what broke: 🧵
Modern Portfolio Theory (1952) proved mathematically that 60% stocks + 40% bonds = optimal diversification.
When stocks fall, bonds rise. Perfect balance.
It worked flawlessly through 2008, 2000, 1987.
Until it didn't.
2022: S&P 500 down 18%
Also 2022: Bonds down 13%
Both crashed together.
Financial advisors called it "a once-in-a-century anomaly."
But I pulled 100 years of data.
This isn't an anomaly. It's a reversion.
Read 11 tweets
HGM Profile picture
Jan 31
I'm making 3 falsifiable predictions about private equity's collapse.
These can be proven right or wrong.
If I'm wrong in 2027, roast me mercilessly.
If I'm right, remember who told you.
Let's go 🧵
PREDICTION #1:
By December 2027, at least 3 PE firms currently in the top 20 by AUM will have STOPPED raising new flagship buyout funds.
Confidence: 75%
They'll pivot to credit or evergreen funds rather than admit their flagship product is obsolete.
Why this will happen:
Poor 2020-2021 vintage performance (invested at peak multiples)
LP allocation reductions (denominator effect normalizing)
Competition from credit/infrastructure
= Impossible fundraising environment for median managers
Read 11 tweets
HGM Profile picture
Jan 30
If you're a pension fund, endowment, or family office with 25%+ in private equity:
You're about to learn an expensive lesson.
But there's still time to fix this.
Here's your playbook for the PE reckoning 🧵
Step 2: Cut bottom-quartile and median managers.
This is a hits-driven business where top-quartile funds capture almost all outperformance.
If you can't consistently access tier-1 managers, you're better off in liquid markets.
The "diversification" argument is debunked.
Step 3: Renegotiate fees or walk away.
2-and-20 made sense when PE delivered 15%+ net returns.
At 6-8% net, it's legalized theft.
Push for:
1-and-10 with higher hurdles
Fees on deployed (not committed) capital
Preferential terms for large commitments
Read 4 tweets

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